Monday, January 24, 2005

Upsets at the Australian Open

There were a number of upsets at the Australian Open, the first Grand Slam tournament of the year. Of the 8 women I previously predicted to get to the quarterfinals, only 5 made it: Davenport(1), Mauresmo(2), Sharapova(4), Kuznetsova(5) and Serena Williams(7). Of the 7 Russians (Myskina, Sharapova, Kuznetsova, Dementieva, Petrova, Douchevina, Linetskaya) who made it to the Round of 16, only two made it to the quarters, and they have to play each other! Ok, so here are the quarterfinals (with my predictions):

Davenport(1) versus Molik (10)
This is a match between two very hard-hitting players. Alicia Molik
is the most-improved player over the last six months and is Australian,
so she will have the entire country rooting for her. There's a reason why Lindsay Davenport is ranked Number 1 in the world again. She played some incredibly solid
tennis last year, against the best players in the world. Despite the fact that Molik "has the best serve in women's tennis right now"(Pam Shriver), Davenport is still the best service returner in the women's game and is no slouch in the service department herself. Lindsay will get all the way to the final. The only person to ever beat her in a Grand Slam final is Venus Williams, and that player is no longer in the tournament (in fact, is no longer on the tour!) Prediction: Davenport in 3 sets.
Dechy(19) versus Schnyder(12)
Schnyder is a very crafty left-handed veteran Swiss player who is very
hot-headed. She outlasted Elena Dementieva in a tough 3-setter in the round of
16. Schnyder plays well in Australia--the ReboundAce court causes players
difficulty when confronted with the lefty spin Schnyder puts on almost every
shot; she was a semifinalist here in 2004. Nathalie Dechy easily beat Anastasia
Myskina in straight sets, who seemed to just have an off-day. I believe the
veteran will find a way to win over the hard-hitting Frenchwoman. Prediction: Schnyder in 2 sets.

The other half of the draw have followed my earlier predictions accurately:

Kuznetsova (5) versus Sharapova (4)

This should be one of the highlights of the tournament. Sharapova has been starting off slow in all her matches, but then usually finds a groove, often stringing 6-8 consecutive games together. It's doubtful she can do that against Kuznetsova, who has a serve which is even bigger than Maria's. I still think a close, hard-hitting match will ensue, but my prediction is the same. Winner: Kuznetsova in 3 sets.
Mauresmo (2) versus S. Williams (7)

I haven't seen any of Amelie's matches this tournament so far (you suck,
ESPN2!). I have seen a lot of Serena's matches and she has been playing well.
I'm really rooting for Amelie to make a breakthrough here like she did 6 years
ago, getting to the final against Martina Hingis. However, she has only beaten
Serena once in 9 tries, though in the last year all their matches have gone to
3-sets and been nailbiters.
Winner: Toss-up (edge to Serena).


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