Some highlights:
What did the campaign’s internal polling show?
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Celinda Lake and her firm did extensive polling for us throughout the campaign. From the very beginning her polling showed that we were significantly behind. Not as far as we had been with Prop 22, but significantly nonetheless. In preparing the answer to this FAQ, I consulted with lead campaign consultant Steve Smith and he reminded me of the following chronology: By the beginning of August, after 6 weeks of legal marriage, our polling (after being adjusted for phone bank differentials) showed that we were down by 13 points. This was very different from the public polling which inexplicably showed us ahead, but we believed our polling to be much more accurate based in part on the turnout models being used (our models were confirmed by the ultimate result).
After every advertisement that was run, we also ran tracking polls to check on the effectiveness of the ads. For example, the Thoron ad was very effective with women, but did not help us with men as much as had been projected. The “lies” ad featuring the televisions was not effective with anyone. The Superintendent of Public Instruction ad was extremely effective. So was the Dianne Feinstein ad. Week after week we gained ground. By the Thursday before the election, accounting for phone bank differentials, our polls showed that we had gained nearly 10 points since August and were down by only 3-4 points. Unfortunately, that’s about where we ended up.
What should our next steps be?
Lots of people are talking about this. We certainly want to do all that we can to take advantage of the great energy and involvement and new leadership that has been emerging since election day. I believe we should focus on two things: a national strategy and a California strategy. President-elect Obama ran on a platform of supporting the repeal of the so-called Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) and of legal equality for same-sex couples at the federal level. I believe our community should work on holding him accountable for these promises.
We also need to develop and implement a California strategy. We know that approximately 500,000 votes separated the Yes and No camps. This is a tiny margin and no way reflective of any broad mandate. If anything, it shows a sea change in our direction since Prop 22. Conceptually speaking, it also indicates that if we had found 500,000 new No voters or had changed the minds of 250,000 Yes voters, we would have won. There is no reason to wait until the next time our rights are put to the test at the ballot box to do the work of talking to voters and convincing them to support the freedom to marry. Just as the Center’s Vote for Equality project has been talking to and identifying supportive voters since 2004, we must continue that work.
Some are talking about putting our own measure on the ballot in 2010. I certainly think that’s one option, but I also think it’s too soon to make those kinds of decisions without a lot more information and analysis. Clearly, it would be much better if the California Supreme Court invalidated Prop 8. And, I worry that if we move too far down the path of our own measure in 2010, it will give the Supreme Court an excuse not to do the right thing. If they believe there’s a chance we could overturn Prop 8 in 2010, might they be less likely to overturn Prop 8 now and risk the ire of religious political extremists when several are up for retention election in two years?
Further, the June 2010 election is barely 19 months away—November 2010 only 2 years away. We made great gains with the No on Prop 8 campaign in comparison to the results of the vote on Prop 22—public opinion swung dramatically during that time. If we were to go the route of a proactive ballot measure, we must be absolutely certain that two years is enough time to do the necessary grassroots work to move public opinion the rest of the way before we launch a new campaign. And, given the economy, we must be absolutely certain that sufficient funds could be raised. These are some of the questions that I think must be answered with care before any decision is made to move forward with our own ballot measure.
Many of us, new and veteran activists alike, will be working to advance the cause of the freedom to marry. I hope everyone who has been inspired to join the rallies and protests will stay involved and help us ultimately secure our full equality. At the nation’s annual LGBT activist conference, Creating Change (this year in Denver at the end of January), there are likely to be numerous workshops and training sessions inspired by the fight in California and other states where anti-LGBT ballot measures passed as well as the success of the subsequent online activism that happened nationally. I intend to be there to share, learn and participate with my fellow activists!
I hope that there will be several opportunities for actvists who are not going to Creating Change in Denver to be able to contribute to the conversations about the way forward to invalidate Proposition 8. It's my understanding there will be some more large meetings in January.
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