Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Polls Show Tight Race On MN Anti-Gay Amendment

The ballot fight in Minnesota about same-sex marriage is getting less attention than the fights going on right now in Maryland, Maine and Washington. Probably because in the other three states, if the pro-equality side wins then there will actually be a public policy change: same-sex couples will be able to get married in those states if the ballot measures get more yes votes than no votes.

However, in Minnesota, regardless if the ballot measure gets more yes votes than no votes or not there will be no public policy change. Same-sex couples will not be able to get married if the measure fails (there's already a law against same-sex marriage in the state) and if the measure passes it will simply place the ban in the state constitution, thus insuring that in order for the state's anti-gay policy to change, the voters would have to amend the state constitution again.

However, a new poll from PPP that shows that the no votes and yes votes are basically tied, with the number of people stating that they would vote against inserting anti-gay discrimination into the state constitution slightly more numerous than the heterosexual supremacists who would vote yes:
PPP's newest poll on Minnesota's amendment to ban gay marriage finds it running slightly behind, with 46% of voters planning to support it and 49% opposed. That represents a 4 point shift compared to a month ago when it led for passage 48-47.
The movement over the last month has been with independent voters. Where they supported the amendment 51/42 in September, they've now almost flipped and oppose it by a 52/42 margin. Women (43/51) are stronger in their opposition to it than men (49/47) are in their support. Most of the margin against the amendment is being provided by younger voters who say they plan to vote against it 53/38.
In general 47% of voters in the state say they support gay marriage to 43% who are opposed. And 74% of voters, including even 52% of Republicans, support some form of legal recognition for gay couples either in the form of marriage or civil unions.

There are 27 days until voters will make their decision on Election Day.

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God

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