Sunday, November 04, 2012

POLL: Maine Marriage Equality Fight Now Very Close

The latest poll from PPP on Maine's Question 1 to legalize marriage equality shows that  the pro-equality side has a slim 52% to 45% lead. This is a much smaller lead than has been found in previous polls of Maine which at one point indicated a nearly 22-point gap in favor of marriage equality. The margin of error in the latest poll is ±2.2 percentage points, so technically it no longer indicates a majority in support of marriage equality.

PPP characterizes the current poll this way:
Maine's referendum to legalize gay marriage is leading for passage by a 52/45 margin, numbers virtually unchanged from 52/44 in our last survey. What we've found historically with these gay marriage ballot measures though is that undecided voters tend to end up voting anti-gay so if I had to guess this is something more like a 52/48 advantage and at that point it can go either way- this is likely to be a pretty close vote. 
Maine is widely considered the best-run of the three ballot measure campaigns to enact marriage equality and the one most likely to succeed. Hopefully, the forces of equality will indeed be successful on Tuesday and finally end the streak of losing "popular votes" on whether the fundamental right to marry should be extended to same-sex couples.

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