- WILL WIN: La La Land.
- SHOULD WIN: La La Land.
- DID WIN: Moonlight.
- WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle, “La La Land.”
- SHOULD WIN: Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival.”
- DID WIN: Damien Chazelle, La La Land.
Actress in a Leading Role
- WILL WIN: Emma Stone, “La La Land.”
- SHOULD WIN: Ruth Negga, “Loving.”
- DID WIN: Emma Stone, La La Land.
Actor in a Leading Role
- WILL WIN: Denzel Washington, “Fences.”
- SHOULD WIN: Ryan Gosling, “La La Land.”
- DID WIN: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea.
Actress in a Supporting Role:
- WILL WIN: Viola Davis, “Fences.”
- SHOULD WIN: Viola Davis, “Fences.”
- DID WIN: Viola Davis, Fences.
Actor in a Supporting Role
- WILL WIN: Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals.”
- SHOULD WIN: Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight.”
- DID WIN: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight.
- WILL WIN: “Arrival”
- SHOULD WIN: “Hidden Figures.”
- DID WIN: Barry Jenkins and Talvin Allen McCraney, Moonlight
- WILL WIN: “La La Land.”
- SHOULD WIN: “Manchester by the Sea.”
- DID WIN: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea.
In the end, La La Land ended up with 6 Oscars and Moonlight ended up with 3. The only other films to win multiple awards were Manchester by the Sea and Hacksaw Ridge which each won 2. Fences, Suicide Squad, Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them, Arrival and Zootopia each won one. Lion and Hidden Figures were shut out.
The three wins by Moonlight is the fewest a Best Picture winner has ended with up since 12 Years A Slave upset Gravity in 2014. However what most people thought if was what happened over a decade ago when the execrable Crash upset Brokeback Mountain to win Best Picture in 2006.
However, Moonlight's victory should not be minimized. It is the first all-Black cast to win Best Picture. Additionally, it's central character is a Black gay man and it is unquestionably a Black LGBT film. It is simply astonishing that it won Best Picture, but as Sasha Stone at awardsdaily.com notes, a preferential ballot can lead to a film with a passionate following with limited detractors exceed a film with wide appeal that some people detest.