Antonio Takes The Lead

Thanks to the essential Political Wire, it has been confirmed what political pundits have been saying for weeks: Jim Hahn is about to lose the first election of his life. In the latest SurveyUSA poll of 1200 voters (409 classified as likely to vote) these are the results:

Antonio Villaraigosa, 36%
Mayor James Hahn, 19%
Bernard Parks, 15%
Bob Hertzberg, 14%
Richard Alarcon, 6%

The margin of error is +/- 4.9%, so really there is a 3-way tie for second. By looking at the cross-tabs you see that Park's is sucking most of the African-American votes out of the Mayor's column (57%-19%) while Villaraigosa keeps 57% of the Hispanic vote and the other candidates basically split the rest. Among White voters, Villaraigosa has a statistically insignificant lead (30%) ahead of Hertzberg (26%) and Hahn (21%). The election is 13 days away: Tuesday March 8.