The Alleged Confluence Between Black and Republican Voters (in a Maryland Context)

I have been following the Maryland Senate Race very closely since last year. It is very likely that it will feature two African American men (Democrat former Congressman Kweisi Mfume versus Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele) winning major oarty nominations to become the next U.S. Senator from Maryland. On July 2, the Washington Post ran an article entitled "Maryland Senate Race May Hinge On Ethnicity" which Equality Maryland has reprinted at their website. First Mfume needs to beat Congressman Ben Cardin in a Democratic primary in September. The latest results show that he is currently in the lead:

For the first time in Maryland history, both major parties have the potential to nominate an African American, and the poll suggests that the hopes of all of the major candidates will depend on their ability to cross racial boundaries for support.
As they stand, the racial divisions are stark: In the primary, Mfume, who is black, gets 72 percent of his support from black voters, the poll shows. Cardin, who is white, gets 82 percent of his backing from white voters.

Then there is Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele, who has brought national attention to the Senate campaign because he is one of a handful of African American Republicans whom the national party is counting on to establish credibility among black voters.

Both Democrats hold leads over Steele in potential general election matchups, although Mfume's is narrow, the poll shows. And again, skin color appears to exert a significant tug.

For instance, if Cardin wins the Democratic primary, the poll shows that nearly a quarter of all black voters would back Steele. If Mfume wins the primary, black voters would stay with the Democratic Party, but Steele would see a nine-point jump in his support from white voters.

The unstated point here is that Black voters are more likely to allow racial affiliation to trump partisan affiliation since 25% of Black voters say they would vote for the Black Republican candidate, while only 9% of White voters would cross party lines to vote for the same candidate. However, there are numerous other explanations for this. If there are two Black candidates then what incentive is there for White voters to vote for the Democrat over the Republican? The true comparison is to determine what happens if a White Republican were to win the nomination, do the reporters think that candidate's support would not go up by more than 25%?

I would argue that white voters are acting in a more racially aligned way since Cardin is getting 82% of his support from voters of his race while Mfume is getting only 72% of his support from people of his race. It seems clear that the message to Democratic primary voters that in heavily Democratic, 33% Black Maryland they should choose Mfume. The polls results, show that with 32% undecided, Mfume leads Cardin 31 to 25. However, the really interesting results in the poll that caught my eye are buried in the final graf:

There is one issue on which the views of black voters and conservative Republicans coincide: same-sex marriage.

Nearly two-thirds of African Americans in the state oppose both same-sex marriage and civil unions for gay couples, the poll shows. By contrast, 57 percent of white voters favored civil unions. On the question of same-sex marriage, 44 percent of white voters favored it, while 53 percent were opposed.

Bositis said he did not expect Steele to make too much of the issue, though, because by doing so "he would risk associating himself with the same conservatives that he has to distance himself from."

The risk of Steele being tied too closely to Bush is considerable: Seventy-nine percent of black voters in the poll said they would be less likely to support a candidate who had Bush's backing.

Hans Kaiser, a pollster with the national Republican firm Moore Information, said that number is "obviously not a plus" for Steele. But he said Steele has been wise to try to steer the campaign to issues that play better with his potential supporters.

"If the campaign is only about George Bush supporting a candidate, that number would be alarming," Kaiser said. "But there are a whole lot of other things being discussed in the campaign."

These numbers point out how much work the National Black Justice Coalition has cut out for it to impact public opinion in the Black community in favor of marriage equality. In addition, it also completely refutes the ridiculous project Republican National Committee chairman (and ambiguously heterosexual) Ken Mehlman and other operatives have been promoting to "increase Black participation and registration with the Republican Party."

Since I started this post last week there have been some interesting developments. Just today, the New York Times has a "Political Memo" written by Adam Nagourney entitled "G.O.P.'s Bid For Blacks Falters" which covers in more specific detail exactly how plainly Mehlman's strategy of attempting to convince black voters to support the Republican agenda has failed.

On another front, today the White House has announced that after five years of declining invitations from the nation's most revered civil rights organizations, the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP), President Bush has agreed to address their annual convention this week. Hmmmmm. Coincidence?