Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Probability Map of Earthquakes in California Released

The Southern California Earthquake Center released the above map which shows the probability of high magnitude earthquakes occurring on major faults within the next 30 years.
The takeaway result is that it is a virtual certainty that there will be major earthquake in California within the next 30 years:
By their calculations, the probability that a magnitude 6.7 quake will hit on any one of the Bay Area faults is 63 percent, only a tiny bit higher than the 62 percent estimated by a similar group in 2003. But the probability for that kind of severely damaging quake on the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault was increased in the new forecast from 27 to 31 percent.

The analysis was the first to assess the probabilities for quakes on several Southern California faults. It calculated the odds of a magnitude 6.7 quake striking within 30 years in greater Los Angeles at 2 to 1, a probability of 67 percent, according to the report.

The single fault in all of California with the highest probability for a large quake occurring within the next 30 years is the Southern San Andreas, and the seismic oddsmakers set the number there at 59 percent - a lot more than even money.

Where's YOUR earthquake kit?

1 comment:

  1. I'll be hunting for some ocean front property in Nevada.

    ReplyDelete

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