US OPEN 2008: Men's Final Preview

Andy Murray (GBR) [6] vs. Roger Federer (SUI) [2]. The 4-time defending champion Roger Federer has not lost here since the fourth round in 2002 (to his former arch-nemesis David Nalbandian) and has been in 16 previous finals (12-4) while the 21-year-old Scot Andy Murray is in his first major final, one day after winning his first major semi-final against the World #1. Almost no one wins their first major final, except the truly great (Federer, Rafael Nadal, Serena Williams) but Murray may just be able to break that jinx.

As Matt Cronin puts it, today's rain-delayed men's final (at 2pm PDT, streamed live at USOpen.org and on CBS) will come down to "Federer's wile versus Murray's guile." On paper, you would have to give the edge to Murray. He loves hard-courts, all of his titles coming on that surface and he has won three titles this year on that surface while Federer has none. He is even one of the three players on the ATP tour who own a career advantage over Federer, having beaten him two of the three times they played, including in January this year when Federer was coming off a shocking (at the time) straight set loss to Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open.

However, I really think the correct lens to view this match is as a rematch of last year's final: the skillful experienced defending champion facing a challenge from a very talented youg upstart with an all-court game. Federer won that showdown by escaping with the first two sets in two tiebreak sets despite being set point down repeatedly in the first two sets. Djokovic folded soon afterwards and Federer celebrated with his 12th title. This year I believe, will be similar, but I do believe that Murray will be able to convert at least one of those set points, but Federer will still prevail in four sets.

I have previously correctly predicted the results of five of the seven final matches on the women's side at this year's open, and five of six final matches on the men's side.

PREDICTION: Federer in 4 sets.