Prop 8 Field Poll Shows Dead Heat (49% No 44% Yes)

The latest Field Poll(pdf) on Proposition 8 was released today on Halloween and the results are scary. The previous Field poll published September 19 had the discriminatory amendment losing 55% No to 38% Yes with 7% Undecided but today's poll has the race much closer, at 49% No 44% Yes 7% Undecided with a margin of error +/- 3.3 percentage points.

The details of the poll internals are below (see the bold sections) but the take-away story is that GETTING OUT THE VOTE is the most important thing we can do between now and Tuesday. Of people who have already voted, we are losing by 6 points but for people planning to vote we are winning by 9 points! To sign up to work the polls on Election Day (as MadProfessah) will be doing, you can go to http://www.noonprop8.com/action/netroots-gotv and sign up.

The relatively close 49% No vs. 44% Yes division of preferences on Prop. 8 masks many sharp splits across various demographic subgroups of the state’s likely voter population.

Democrats are strongly opposing the initiative by a margin of 65% to 28%. Voters supporting Barack Obama for President are even more likely to be opposing Prop. 8 (73% No vs. 21% Yes). By contrast, Republicans are extremely supportive of the initiative, with 75% now on the Yes side and 20% voting No. Supporters of John McCain for President are even more heavily on the Yes side – 84% Yes and 13% No. Voters registered as non-partisans or who are affiliated with other parties are opposing Prop. 8 by a roughly two to one ratio – 60% No and 31% Yes.

There is a huge ideological divide on this issue. Strong conservatives are nearly eight to one in favor of the initiative (87% to 10%), while voters who are strongly liberal in politics take a completely opposite view, with 86% opposing Prop. 8 and just 10% in favor. Voters who say they take a middle-of-the-road position in politics are voting No by eleven points (51% to 40%).

Californians intending to vote early or by mail will likely comprise almost half (47%) of all voters in next week’s election. These voters are narrowly favoring the initiative 48% to 45%. In addition, among the 22% of voters who had already voted at the time the survey was completed, the Yes side was leading by six points (50% to 44%). This differs from the voting preferences of those intending to vote at their local precincts next Tuesday. These voters oppose Prop. 8 by a 52% to 41% margin.

There is a clear geographic divide in voting preferences on Prop. 8. Voters living in the state’s coastal counties, which constitutes 71% of all likely voters, are heavily on the No side, with 54% opposed and 39% in favor. This contrasts with voters living in the state’s inland counties who are backing the initiative, 57% to 37%.

The poll finds women opposing the same sex marriage ban by nine points (51% to 42%), while men are about evenly divided – 47% No and 46% Yes.

All age subgroups under age 65 are opposing Prop. 8 by doubled-digit margins. However, voters 65 and over are strongly in favor of the initiative, backing Prop. 8 by a nearly two to one margin (62% Yes vs. 32% No).

White non-Hispanic voters, who comprise about two-thirds of all likely voters, are currently opposing Prop. 8 by six points – 50% to 44%. Latinos, who comprise about 19% of likely voters, are about evenly divided (48% No vs. 46% Yes). African-Americans and Asians/others hold mixed views about the initiative, with the former narrowly backing Prop. 8 and the latter narrowly opposed. [But the sample sizes are two small to ensure accuracy in the numbers for both Asian-Americans and African-Americans (MadProfessah).]

There are big differences in preferences according to a voter’s education level. Voters with no more than a high school education are favoring Prop. 8 by two and one-half to one (62% to 27%). By contrast, voters who have a post-graduate education are taking an opposite view and are voting No nearly two to one (61% to 33%).

A voter’s religious affiliation also relates to preferences on Prop. 8. Protestants are very much in favor of Prop. 8, with 60% on the Yes side and 33% voting No. Catholics are about evenly divided (48% No vs. 44% Yes). By contrast, voters affiliated with other non-Christian religions or who have no religious preference are heavily opposed to the proposed ban on same-sex marriages.

A very large majority of this state’s voters (78%) say they personally know or work with people who are gay or lesbian. These voters are inclined to be voting No on Prop. 8 (51% No vs. 43% Yes). The much smaller proportion of voters who are not personally familiar with gays or lesbians, on the other hand, are lining up on the Yes side 50% to 42%.