Prop 8 Polling Analysis Estimates 55% Failure Chance

Polling whiz Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com analyzes the latest data on Proposition 8 and finds the race very very close, with a 55% probability of Proposition 8 failing. Polling data on propositions is apparently notoriously less reliable, but as shown in the graphic, the trend lines for the NO ON PROP 8 position (the red curve) are not encouraging.

55%-45% is barely better than flipping a coin. Do you want to flip a coin on whether a fundamental right for a minority group of people will be (for the first time ever in California!) eliminated by a majority vote?

However, there is encouraging news that the opposition has closed the gap on fundraising with the proponents. Although 70% of the heterosexual supremacists' money raised since July 1 comes from Mormons, their total has now reached $26.7 million dollars, with the opponents having raised $26.1 million. This is now the most expensive gay ballot measure in history, with more money being spent and raised than all 33 previous state anti-gay ballot measures from 1998 through 2006 combined.

I would remind you that you can donate to defeat Proposition 8 through the MadProfessah.com match. We are currently at 31% of our goal of raising $1000 before November 1, which will be matched by me. Please click on the thermometer on the right side of the page and donate now. Any amount, $10, $25 or $100 will help to put ads on the air and Get Out The Vote, in the largest field operation the LGBT community has ever put together. Thanks!