UPDATE: Prop 8 Margin Less Than Reported in L.A.

MadProfessah has been following the final tallies of the 2008 election results very carefully. In Los Angeles County according to the Secretary of State, Proposition 8 is leading 50.046%-49.954%, a margin of 2,904 votes out of 3,185,172 votes (0.09%).

However, according to the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder the Proposition 8 margin is even smaller, 2,385 votes out of 3,246,959 (0.07%) which is a lead of 50.04% to 49.96%. In Los Angeles there are 4,111,642 registered voters, so voter turnout was an astonishing 79%, although this is less than the turnout in the presidential race which nearly reached 81%!

In San Francisco, according to the City and County Department of Elections Proposition 8 was defeated 280,491 to 92,536 (75.2% to 24.8%). With 477,651 registered voters that corresponds to a turnout of 78%, just slightly below the turnout in Los Angeles County, but less than one-ninth as many total votes. Interestingly, in San Francisco Obama-Biden defeated McCain-Palin 84%-14% with a turnout of 80% in the presidential election. In Los Angeles, the Democratic ticket won 69%-29%.

Of course the statewide numbers currently show Proposition 8 winning by 591,644 votes, 52.27% to 47.74% (a margin of 4.52%) but the Secretary of State is still using old numbers from Los Angeles and San Francisco.

On December 13th, the Secretary of State released the official statement of the vote (pdf), which has the certified totals as 7,001,084 YES and 6,401,482 NO, an increased margin of 599,602 votes for passage of Proposition 8 a percentage of 52.24% to 47.76% (decreased margin to 4.47%).

Statewide turnout was 79.4% among all registered voters, which falls to 59% if you consider all eligible voters. That's 13,743,177 actual voters out of 17,304,091 registered voters (and 23,208,710 eligible voters). Interestingly, statewide 41% of all votes were cast by mail, with Los Angeles County being one of the lowest vote-by-mail counties (despite being the most populous county) with a 24% vote-by-mail rate in L.A.

There are some bizarre mathematical errors in the Secretary of State's report, mostly involving calculation of percentages. They have the percentages for Proposition 8 as 52.30% to 47.70% which is imply wrong using their own numbers (given above). In fact, I think the given percentages for all the Propositions are incorrect.

What this update shows is that people should avoid making snap judgments and conclusions about the election results (and posing the reasons for the "results") the day after the election and wait for the full returns to come in.