Field Poll Shows Trend On Marriage Equality

I have long argued that we really can not win an electoral battle to legalize "gay marriage' unless there is 50% support for the concept, regardless of what the precise ballot question is. I was under the impression that support for marriage had never cracked the magic 50% barrier, but as the table above shows, in May 2008 the Field Poll has support for marriage at 51% with opposition at 42%. I believe this poll was taken a few days after the landmark California Supreme Court cases legalizing marriage equality in In Re Marriage Cases was released on May 15 2008, so it is more likely this is a serious outlier in public support for the concept.

The table does show a general favorable trend on the question of marriage equality. The question is will we be consistently be above 50% in 2010 or will it take to 2012 or (yikes!) 2016?

What do you think?