Daily Kos Poll On Marriage Equality

Daily Kos polled on the question of same-sex marriage. Here are the results

Research 2000. 8/9-8/12. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

If you voted in the 2008 election last November did you vote for or against Proposition 8 which banned same-sex marriage?

For 51
Against 45
Did not vote 4

As you may know the 2010 ballot may feature an initiative which if passed would allow for same-sex marriage in California. If you were voting today on such an initiative would you vote for or against allowing same-sex marriage in California?

For 47
Against 48
Not sure 5

In the first question, "For" is against gay marriage, in the second, it's for it. In short, support for gay marriage is up 2 points, while opposition is down from 51 percent to 48 percent. That's a five point drop. For a ballot initiative that passed by a scant 4.48 points, that turns this effort into a toss-up.

Unfortunately, Kos makes a typical error here. 1) The margin of error is +/- 4 points. That means that you have no idea what the actual opposition to marriage equality is. He has it at either -6 or -1 but it could 4 points in either direction. 2) His sample of 51% Yes on 8, 45% No on 8 underestimates support for Prop 8, as well as the opposition. (Who are the nutjobs who didn't not know how they voted??) That sample that is being polled is NOT the electorate we have in 2010!

In order for MadProfessah to support a ballot measure to repeal Proposition 8, support for marriage equality needs to be GUARANTEED at 50%, outside of the margin of error. In this poll, that would be a result of 54%. Even with those numbers, it would take millions of dollars to win an affirmative marriage equality proposition in a general election, and victory is NOT assured.

Here are the internals

QUESTION: As you may know the 2010 ballot may feature an initiative which if passed would allow for same-sex marriage in California. If you were voting today on such an initiative would you vote for or against allowing same-sex marriage in California?

       FOR AGAINST NOT SURE
ALL           47 48 5
MEN           45 50 5
WOMEN         49 46 5
DEMOCRATS     65 29 6
REPUBLICANS   15 81 4
INDEPENDENTS  54 42 4
WHITE         50 44 6
BLACK         27 71 2
HISPANIC      43 53 4
ASIAN         49 45 6
18-29         64 32 4
30-44         46 49 5
45-59         44 50 6
60+           37 57 6
NORTHERN      41 51 8
CENTRAL       40 54 6
LA COUNTY     50 47 3
BAY           66 30 4
SOUTHERN      38 56 6

Note the highlighted numbers. Although since there's no oversampling the margins of errors on these sub-groups can be extraordinarily high. The intense Republican opposition to marriage equality is clearly a problem, especially the lukewarm Democratic support for it.

Also, it is unusual (and disturbing) that only 2% of African-American respondents are undecided.