In the aftermath of the 2008 Proposition 8 campaign, it became apparent that much, if not all, of the winning margin came from African American and Latino voters who turned out in extra-heavy numbers to support Obama's presidential bid, and that has generated nearly a year of acrimonious debate within the gay rights community and black and Latino political circles.While it is true that if only White voters had voted in November 2008, Proposition 8 would have failed. That does not mean that people of color are responsible for the passage of the measure. When you control for the rate at which different groups go to church (i.e. once a week, once a month, almost never) Black, Latino and Asians have approximately equivalent rates of support for marriage equality as white voters.
Ron Buckmire, a mathematics professor at Occidental College who describes himself in his Internet blog as a "black, gay, Caribbean, liberal, progressive, moderate, fit, married, college-educated, NPR-Listening, tennis-playing feminist atheist," has emerged as one of the leading advocates for waiting.
"As I like to say: Do the math," Buckmire said in one interview. "It's going to take a long time. … I haven't seen a plan to win yet. I've seen a plan to get on the ballot. But not to win."
One question that gay rights advocates are trying to answer is whether the 2010 election, an off-year for presidential politics but one in which California will elect a new governor, would be more or less conducive to same-sex marriage.
Voter turnout would be lower than in 2008, most likely, and that probably would mean a somewhat whiter and older set of voters, which also could mean a lower turnout of those pro-Proposition 8 black and Latino voters.
A personal blog by a Black, Gay, Caribbean, Liberal, Progressive, Moderate, Fit, Geeky, Married, College-Educated, NPR-Listening, Tennis-Playing, Feminist, Atheist, Math Professor in Los Angeles, California
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Tuesday, August 11, 2009
MadProfessah Quoted in Sacramento Bee on 2010 vs 2012
A little bird emailed me to let me know that I was quoted in today's Sacramento Bee column("Gay marriage advocates debate next California move") by noted political pundit Dan Walters. In fact, not only was I quoted but this very blog you are reading was mentioned as well! Unfortunately, he still clings to the "zombie meme" that Black and Latin voters were to blame for Proposition 8's passage:
Astoundingly, some twits are trying to use the fact that NOM quoted you to convince me that if we don't believe 2010 is right, we should just shut up. (My response was that I trust nobody's word more than yours on this, and if you say wait, the only right thing to do is wait.)
ReplyDeleteHuh?? Where did NOM quote me??
ReplyDeleteSend a link!
I am not saying that 2010 is impossible, I am saying that we need to be talking about what do we need to win, and when we know that we can go forward with a plan to win.
I find it very doubtful that we can have those conversations and planning meetings while simultaneously running a signature gathering campaign.
http://nomblog.com/?p=186
ReplyDeleteAnd: given the experience on 22 and 8, as well as other initiatives elsewhere, the false-progressives in polls are important here: I don't think we should collect a single signature till we're polling 55%. Education is what matters.
ReplyDelete