New Maine Poll (51 Yes, 47 No): Marriage Equality Could Lose Tuesday

The new Maine poll from Public Policy Poll has supporters of marriage equality peeing in our pants since, for the first time, polling shows a majority deciding NOT to allow same-sex marriages.

At 51-47 it’s within the margin of error but there has been slight movement in support of the question since a PPP poll two weeks ago showed it knotted up at 48.

The measure’s fate could be determined by the age composition of the electorate on Tuesday. Senior citizens support it by a 59-40 margin while voters under 30 oppose it 51-48. Last year exit polls showed more voters under 30 turning out for the Presidential election than ones over 65 but we expect seniors to turn out at a much higher rate than younger voters this year, as is often the case in off year elections. If the electorate ends up being younger than we anticipate the fight could be even closer.

Independents support the measure 52-46. There are slightly more Democrats (27%) in favor of it than there are Republicans (22%) opposed to it. Men support it by a 56-42 margin, women are opposed 52-46. It’s just going to come down to which side does the better job of getting its people out.

Protect Maine Equality / No On 1 has sent out a RED ALERT to try and raise $50,000 to counter this hateful new radio ad the heterosexual supremacists have backed with $25,000. Please click on the thermometer on this page and kick in at least $31 since this will be the 31st statewide vote on marriage equality and could be the first one that the good guys will win!