The latest tallies on Referendum 71 from the Washington State Secretary of State election results page show that the good guys are ahead 593,956 (51.65%) Approve to 556,090 (48.35%) Reject with 394,282 ballots still to be counted! However, mathematically there is almost no chance that Referendum 71 will be rejected when all the votes are tallied.The current margin of victory is 37,876 votes. However, 129,000 of the outstanding ballots are from King county which is approving Referendum 71 at a 66%-34% rate that will be a net gain of another 42,000 votes. The rest of the state will not be able to overcome that margin unless they sustain a margin of 58% Reject for ALL of the non King County votes. In order to actually surpass the boost from the uncounted King County ballots combined with the current lead of 37,876 the outstanding non-King county 265,000 ballots would have to be rejecting Referendum 71 at a rate of 65%.
That simply is NOT going to happen. We won!!
Having a statewide vote to approve a comprehensive domestic partnership bill affirmatively is a huge leap forward for the LGBT equality movement. I would note that the last time LGBTs won a statewide vote it was in 2006 when Arizonan's defeated an anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment so homophobic it would also have outlawed domestic partnerships. That initiative was rejected in 2006 and then a marriage-only measure was approved by voters in 2008.
I think this makes it clear that states that have anti-marriage constitutional amendments or do not have marriage equality yet should move forward in enacting comprehensive domestic partnership statutes and not be afraid of facing the voters.
First, there is no mathematical certainty that Referendum 71 will carry. There are ten times as many votes yet to be counted as there are yes votes leading no's. Most probably, the votes sent at the last minute Tuesday are among those not yet counted.
ReplyDeleteIt's reasonable to wonder why those voters waited. It is completely rational to assume that they were undecided about something, and it is completely rational to fear that Referendum 71 was the issue in many cases. So it would not be surprising to see a surge in no votes.
Still, the chances are against a surprise victory for the no's.
Secondly, there are still over 48% of Washingtonians who oppose any rights at all for same sex couples, no matter how you label the package. That compares with 52.2% of Californians against marriage equality and 52.8% of Mainers against marriage equality. The difference in opposition is small indeed.
NOM, et al proclaimed in Maine that they were not against protections for same-sex couples: It was only about marriage. Meanwhile, they were funding a battle against rights for same-sex couples in Washington, and they are close to winning.
If Maine passes domestic partnerships next year, we can be sure that NOM will be back. The civil union "compromise" is just as vulnerable as true equality.