AUSSIE OPEN 2010: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the Australian Open this year, which is one of the strongest fields in recent memory, with 6 of the top8 seeds making it to the final eight.

Roger Federer SUI (1) vs. Nikolay Davydenko RUS (6). Haven't we seen this movie before? Roger Federer, the Greatest Of All Time, playing late in a major tournament against the Kolya The Obsure Russian. Yes, we have, but since the last major was played Davydenko has won not one but two tournaments where he beat both Rafael Nadal and Federer. That still gives him the uninspiring record of 2 wins 12 losses against Federer, including 0-4 in majors. In fact, in 2006 Davydenko lost in this very same round to Federer in four relatively tight sets. Of course neither player is the same player they were four years ago. One would really have to say that it is Davydenko who has improved more in that time, than Federer. I suspect this match will be closer than most people expect, but that Federer will pull through bringing his already incredible streak of 22 consecutive Grand Slam semifinals to a ridiculous 23. PREDICTION: Federer in 5 sets.

Novak Djokovic SRB (3) vs Robin Soderling SWE (8) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (10). You know things are good when a reprise of the 2008 men's final is not even the best match-up of this round. It's interesting that Soderling was seeded to have this position, because I always expected Tsonga to be right here from the beginning of the tournament. Unfortunately for him, I don't think the result will be any different from the last time the charismatic Frenchman played the talented Serb on the big stage in Melbourne. Djokovic is playing devastating tennis and is anxious to remain in the conversation when talk turns to the Nadal-Federer monopoly on major titles. Unless Tsonga is playing the tennis that had him dismiss Nadal in that magical semifinal in 2008, he will probably not even win a set. Then again one never knows what could happen because last year the defending champion bizarrely threw in the towel against Andy Roddick at this stage of the tournament and I am pretty sure he is eager to erase memories of that result from the tennis-watching public's mind. PREDICTION: Djokovic in 4 sets.


Andy Roddick USA (7) vs. Juan Martin Del Potro ARG (4). Marin Cilic CRO (14). I really never expected to see Juan Martín del Potro make it this far in the tournament and he never really looked very comfortable in any of his matches in Melbourne this year. Cilic was impressive in maintaining his composure as he blew breakpoint after breakpoint against the reigning US Open champion. A lot of people (including myself) have favorably re-assessed the play of Andy Roddick after the incredible competitive spirit he showed in the best match of last year, the 2009 Wimbledon men's final. However, Marin Cilic is undefeated in 2010 and he is absolutely not satisfied with only being a quarterfinalist. I'm sure he truly believes that if Juan Martin can win a major (over Federer no less!) than he can as well. If so, he'll have to get through at least three more good players to get there, as well as have some good luck. PREDICTION: Cilic in 5 sets.

Andy Murray GBR (5) vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). This is the match-up of the tournament (so far). The one player who is playing even sharper tennis than Djokovic is Andy Murray, who hears the clamor of "best player not to have won a major" getting louder and louder every single day. Although Nadal sports a 7-2 career head-to-head lead, Murray's two wins have occurred on hard courts, although Nadal did beat Murray in a 5-set match in Melbourne in 2007. However, the Andy Murray of today is not the same player Nadal dispatched then. Also, Nadal has not really been that impressive in getting this far in the tournament, although maybe that is because he has not been seriously tested. That will end in this match. Either way, the defending champion will not go out without a tremendous fight. This should be a great one. PREDICTION: Murray in 5 sets.