CA-GOV, CA-SEN: SurveyUSA Shows Republican Leads

SurveyUSA, the automated polling outfit, has polled the California gubernatorial and senatorial races and found leads for Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina, respectively.

California: Fiorina and Boxer Still in Tight Fight; Whitman Narrowly Atop Brown; Some Traction for Those Opposed to Legal Weed: Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer remains locked in a tight fight with Republican challenger Carly Fiorina, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. 3 identical SurveyUSA tracking polls have shown the contest within the theoretical margin of sampling error, though, in all 3 cases, the Republican has been nominally ahead, confounding many observers and, for now, preserving the possibility of a take-away. Today, it's Fiorina 48%, Boxer 46%. There is movement, or perhaps statistical noise, among Hispanic voters.

In the contest for Governor of California, it's Republican Meg Whitman 47%, Democrat Jerry Brown 40% today. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks ago, Whitman is up 3, Brown is down 3. But, compared to a SurveyUSA poll 7 weeks ago: no change. Among men, the race has been flat since polling began in July, with Whitman at 50% in each poll, and Brown at 35% to 37%. Among women, more volatility, with Brown 13 points atop Whitman 3 weeks ago, but tied with the former eBay CEO both 7 weeks ago and today.

Opposition to Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana and allow for its regulation and taxation, has grown. Two previous SurveyUSA polls both showed the measure passing by 10 points; today: 47% vote Yes to legalize, 43% vote No. Women, older voters, minorities, and Central Valley voters have all moved toward "No." Support remains above 50% among men, younger voters, whites, Democrats, liberals and moderates, and in the Bay Area.

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, remains nominally ahead in the contest for Lieutenant Governor, where incumbent Republican Republican Abel Maldonado may have lost a couple of points compared to 3 weeks ago. Today it's Newsom 44% to Maldonado 39%. There is movement among men.

If Republicans are leading in Democrat-dominated California, progressives are in for a really, really bad NOvember.