CA-AG: Harris Has Insurmountable Lead of 43,050!

Kamala Harris now leads Steve Cooley by 43,050 votes (4,291,854 or 46.0% to 4,248,804 or 45.5%). According to the Secretary of State's office (pdf) there are are now 629,634 unprocessed ballots, with 361,588 provisional ballots and 228,854 vote-by-mail ballots. Los Angeles County has the most number of outstanding ballots, left to be counted 93,590 (73,928 of which are provisional). 82% of provisional ballots are usually counted. The thing to note is that Harris won on election day (when provisional ballots are turned in by approximate 3 percentage points and she lost vote-by-mail ballots by 8 percentage points. Of the ballots left to count, Cooley should be expected to have a net gain of 10K-20K votes at most.
(He wins VBM ballots netting approximately 20K votes but loses provisional ballots by 8K votes.)

Basically, we are where we were on election night when Harris had a slim lead but today there are far less votes to be counted, dramatically reducing Cooley's chances of retaking the lead. I'm still slightly worried that the percentage of votes left to be counted consists of less than 20% from Los Angeles County, but Harris won other relatively large counties by good margins as well. Also, there are some indications that the unprocessed ballot number is too high, making things even tougher for Cooley.

It is mathematically possible for Cooley to win but the probabilities are in the 1-2% range (he would have to win the outstanding ballots at net rates of 7-8% which the rest of the sample simply does not reflect). Los Angeles County Council President Eric Garcetti (and former Occidental College professor) called the race for Harris yesterday and urged media outlets to do the math to show how slim the possibility of Cooley winning actually is. Garcetti actually estimates that there are far LESS uncounted votes than in the unprocessed ballot status page since some of the counties have not updated their numbers in over two weeks and the total vote count is approaching 9.6 million. We'll probably hit 10 million votes cast statewide by the time everything is counted and certified next month.