2011 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Final Preview

FFT

Roger Federer SUI (3) vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (1). For the 25th time, the Spanish lefty and the Swiss righty who have dominated men's tennis for the last 7 years will meet in an ATP tour match, with Nadal maintaining a 2:1 winning ratio, 16-8. The two have met in 7 major finals (3 in Paris, 3 in London and 1 in Melbourne) so far, with Nadal leading 5-2 (only losing the 2006 Wimbledon and 2007 Wimbledon finals). The vast majority of their meetings have occurred in championship matches, often when the two were ranked #1 and #2 in the world. In these 18 finals, Nadal leads 12-6, and 9-2 in the clay court finals.


Federer won one of his best clay court matches ever on Friday when he ended Novak Djokovic's undefeated year with a 7-6(5) 6-3 3-6 7-6(5) victory. He served astonishingly well, with 65% first serves in and 18 aces (including one on match point) compared to a mere 2 double faults. Federer defended well, gliding around the court as if he was not a father of nearly 2-year-old twin girls and strongly hitting his topspin backhand down the line and knifing the backhand slice.


The perplexing problem is that the match up between Nadal's game on clay and Federer's game greatly favors the Spaniard. Nadal's topspin forehand jumps up high to Federer's backhand side, making it difficult for Federer to defend that side. Although Federer's forehand cross-court outmatches Nadal's backhand cross-court it is often very difficult for the Swiss player to win points that way due to Nadal's ferocious defensive skills. The two wins on clay that Federer has in his career over "The King of Clay" arguably came when Nadal was not at his best physically (2009 Madrid) or a court on which Federer was incredibly confident (2007 Hamburg). The last time they played the final in 2008, Nadal mercilessly pummeled the Swiss player, relegating him to a mere 4 games in a 3-set match, 6-1 6-3 6-0.


I do think that the match tomorrow will be their closest Roland Garros contest, maybe even a 4-set or 5-set affair, but in the end Nadal's 43-1 dominance on the court will prevail, allowing the World #1 to tie Borg's record of 6 clay court majors.


PREDICTION: Nadal.