WIMBLEDON 2011: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Roger Federer                                                   © AELTC/S.Wake

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011. Last year's I correctly predicted the results of 1 of 4 men's quarterfinals right before I got on a plane to London to attend the men's final. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Tomas Berdych CZE (6) Mardy Fish USA (10). Who would have thought that the last American player remaining in the draw at Wimbledon deep in the second week would be Mardy Fish? The American took out last year's Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych by exposing the 6'5" Czech mobility deficit with blistering groundstrokes into the corners and confident volleys following very big serves. Nadal was lucky to escape his meeting with Juan Martin del Potro in the 4th round but did not come away unscathed; apparently there is a foot or heel injury which is invisible to MRIs but which caused Nadal to take a 9-minute injury time-out at 6-all in the first set. The 2-time defending champion won that 1st set tie-break (despite being 0-3 down) and went on to win the match 7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(4) 6-4. Mardy has only one won set against Nadal in 5 career meetings, but all of their matches were played before Fish transformed himself by losing 30 pounds and dedicating himself to fitness. The results have been extraordinary: he is now the top rated American male and will likely be so for the foreseeable future. Unless Nadal's injury plays a factor, I still don't see Fish advancing from his first Wimbledon quarterfinal to his first Wimbledon semifinal. PREDICTION: Nadal.

Andy Murray GBR (4) vs. Feliciano Lopez ESP. The only drama in this match will be who will be the first to mention the "controversy" that one of the player's parents finds the other player attractive. Feliciano Lopez is definitely an excellent grass-court player and is unquestionably one of the most handsome players on the tour. He is in his third career Wimbledon quarterfinal, which is the furthest he has ever been in any major.  In 2011 he has already achieved a number of firsts, including having a match point against Roger Federer and defeating Andy Roddick for the first time. That being said, Murray has the hopes of a nation on his shoulders and after a surprisingly good result at this year's French Open appears to be comfortable with pressure he faces to play his best tennis in SW19. Murray has yet to lose on grass this year. He knows he could have played much better in his 2010 Wimbledon semifinal against Nadal last year and wants another chance. I think he'll get it. PREDICTION: Murray.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (12) vs. Roger Federer SUI (3). This match should be the best of the 2011 Men's Quarterfinals at Wimbledon. Tsonga is a very good grass-court player, playing (but losing) a very good final against Murrayat the Queen's Club. Tsonga actually has a win against Federer (on hard courts) and has only played the Swiss Maestro 5 times so the career head-to-head deficit is not overwhelming. However, the fact that he will be playing Living History, the man who is in his 29th(!) consecutive major quarterfinal  and is trying to win this tournament for a record-tying 7th time must be daunting. Interestingly, since Tsonga had to play Grigor "Baby Fed" Dimitrov earlier in the tournament he may feel well-prepared to handle the real Federer on the big stage this time. Federer was able to dismiss Mikhail Youzhny in four sets after inexplicably dropping the first set tie-break after holding a 4-2 lead at the change over but he really didn't look comfortable to me despite the 6-7(5) 6-3 6-3 6-3 scoreline. Youzhny is a crafty veteran but he does not possess the firepower to really give Federer difficulties at crucial moments. Tsonga does. That being said Federer is aiming for his 27th major semifinal and 22nd major final. I believe that he will reach both. PREDICTION: Federer. 

Bernard Tomic AUS  vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2). For the first time in 25 years one of the men's quarterfinalists is an 18-year-old, Bernard Tomic. Australians, especially his father, have been talking up Tomic's talent for years so it is impressive the youngster has matched a feat last achieve by Boris Becker. But there the similarities end. Tomic's game is like Murray 2.0 when he was 18: lots of different spins, excellent movement, full of guile and almost zero aggression.  It is not an attractive picture. Djokovic, despite only losing one match (out of 46 played!) all year long, has progressed through the draw like a ninja, silently dispatching his opponents by gliding around the court, seeming to do very little only to see the vanquished drop to the ground, defeated. He had a slight hiccup against a game Marcos Baghdatis, but one never really believed that the World's #2 was in any danger of losing. I have a very similar feeling about this match. Most likely for the second major in a row, the Top 4 players will reach the semifinals.   PREDICTION: Djokovic.