WA: New Poll Worries Marriage Equality Supporters

A new poll of Washington's Referendum 74 on marriage equality is making local activists nervous because the results show a narrow lead for the good guys: 50% Approve, 43% Reject, 7% "Not Sure." With the experience of losing a marriage referendum in Maine in November 2009 despite public polls showing a small but persistent leads for supporters for marriage equality, activists now realize that unless stated support for marriage is around 55% or well above 50% including the margin of error means that these results out of Washington have marriage equality supporters gnashing their teeth:

This is not good. Going into an election with less than 55 percent support is considered a dicey gamble. But the poll released this week shows gay marriagedoesn't even have a majority of support, which means that opponents need only keep the 7 percent of undecided voters afraid and peel off a fraction of support to defeat the measure in November. And while other polls have shown it doing slightly better—ranging from 47 percent to 54 percent—all of them showlosing would be easy. After all, in Maine in 2009, marriage equality was narrowly leading in the polls before being defeated by a six-point margin on election day.

The margin of error in the SurveyUSA is ±4 points. It's still a long ways to election day, but this is a good wake-up call for activists who thought that defending Washington's marriage law would be relatively easy. The heterosexual supremacists who want to enforce their discriminatory view that same-sex couples should be denied access to civil marriage licenses will not go down with a fight.

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