2013 Oscars: My Predictions

Here are my current predictions for the 2013 Oscars, which will be given out exactly two weeks from today. I think that in the end the Academy will vote for Best Picture the movie they enjoyed the most sitting through, which is Argo and not the movie they have been bludgeoned into thinking should be the best picture, i.e. Lincoln. The real question is since they can not vote for Affleck for Director, will they give it to a previous winner (like Steven Spielberg or Ang Lee), or will they try to anoint someone new who has been creating deserving work for years, like David O. Russell or Michael Haneke?

The toughest categories in the big 8 are Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay. And they are all basically related.

Best Picture
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director

• Michael Haneke, Amour
• Ang Lee, Life of Pi
• David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
• Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
• Benh Zeitlin,  Beasts of the Southern Wild

SHOULD WIN: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
WILL WIN: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Best Actress

• Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
• Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
• Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
• Naomi Watts, The Impossible
• Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

SHOULD WIN: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
WILL WIN: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Best Actor

• Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
• Denzel Washington, Flight
• Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
• Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

SHOULD WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams, The Master
• Sally Field, Lincoln
• Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
• Helen Hunt, The Sessions
• Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

SHOULD WIN: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
WILL WIN: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Best Supporting Actor

• Alan Arkin, Argo
• Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
• Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
• Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
• Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

SHOULD WIN: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
WILL WIN:  Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Best Original Screenplay

• Amour, Michael Haneke
• Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
• Flight, John Gatins
• Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
• Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal

SHOULD WIN: Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
WILL WIN:  Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Argo, Chris Terrio
• Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin
• Life of Pi, David Magee
• Lincoln, Tony Kushner
• Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell

SHOULD WIN: Life of Pi, David Magee
WILL WIN: Lincoln, Tony Kushner or Argo, Chris Terrio

Oscar Totals: 
Lincoln (6) followed by Argo (4) and  Life of Pi (4)