Now There Are 6: Sen. Nelson (D-FL) Supports Marriage Equality. Who Will Be Next?

Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida has become the
51st U.S. Senator to endorse marriage equality

Exactly 7 days ago there were nine remaining members of the Democratic caucus who did not support marriage equality. Here was the list then:

• Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania. Up for reelection in 2018.
• Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Up for reelection in 2018.
• Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida. Up for reelection in 2018.
• Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota. Up for reelection in 2018.
• Sen. Tom Carper of Delaware. Up for reelection in 2018.
• Sen. Joe Donnelly of Indiana. Up for reelection in 2018.
• Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. Up for reelection in 2014.
• Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas. Up for reelection in 2014
• Sen. Tim Johnson of South Dakota. Retiring from Senate in 2014.

Here is the list today:

• Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania. Up for reelection in 2018.
• Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Up for reelection in 2018.
• Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida. Up for reelection in 2018.
• Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota. Up for reelection in 2018.
• Sen. Tom Carper of Delaware. Up for reelection in 2018.
• Sen. Joe Donnelly of Indiana. Up for reelection in 2018.
• Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. Up for reelection in 2014.
• Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas. Up for reelection in 2014
• Sen. Tim Johnson of South Dakota. Retiring from Senate in 2014.

Notice that now all the Senators from blue states have now endorsed marriage equality. But also notice that there are three "red state Senators" who are not up for re-election until 2018. Do they really think that they will have a more opportune moment than now to switch their position? I suspect they are waiting to see what happens at the United States Supreme Court in June.

Senator Bill Nelson of Florida became the latest to join the right side of history by releasing a statement which said this yesterday:

"It is generally accepted in American law and U.S. society today '. . . that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.' I believe that. The civil rights and responsibilities for one must pertain to all. 

"Thus, to discriminate against one class and not another is wrong for me," he said in a statement to the Tampa Bay Times editorial board. 

"If we are endowed by our creator with rights, then why shouldn't those be attainable by gays and lesbians? Simply put, if the Lord made homosexuals as well as heterosexuals, why should I discriminate against their civil marriage? I shouldn't, and I won't. 

"So I will add my name to the petition of senators asking the Supreme Court to declare the law that prohibits gay marriage unconstitutional."

Wow. Yes, he really did refer to God three times in a statement supporting a legal position for why marriage equality bans should be struck down and the right to civil marriages should include same-sex couples.

The main significance of Nelson's statement is that now a majority of Senators support marriage equality, something which on Tuesday I predicted would happen within the week!

I'm perfectly willing to give the two Democratic senators running for re-election in red states in 2014 (Landrieu in Louisiana and Pryor in Arkansas) a pass until November 5, 2014, the day after the mid-term election. Until then, we're looking at you Senators Heitkamp, Donnelly and Manchin! Donnelly and Machin are both anti-choice so those will be hard to move, but they have the exampleof Pennsylvania's Bob Casey to follow there. As for Heitkamp, women are substantially more supportive of marriage equality than men, although curiously none of the four female Republican senators (Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Deb Fischer of Nebraska North Dakota, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska) have endorsed marriage equality. I would put my money on Sen. Collins joining the marriage equality caucus, since after all her state has recently voted to support marriage equality! But she's also up for re-election in 2014.

The political calculus is interesting: who is more likely to endorse marriage equality, a Democratic female senator from a red state not up for re-election until 2018 (e.g. Heitkamp), or a Republican female Senator from a blue state who is up for re-election in 2014 (e.g. Collins)? Or a Republican male senators from a blue state not up for re-election until 2018 (Dean Heller of Nevada)? Or someone else? And does it matter if they are pro-choice or not?

Another soon-to-be-pressing question is "Senator, now that you support equality in marriage for same-sex couples, do you also support their civil right not to be discriminated in employment, housing and public accommodations?"