SATURDAY POLITICS: CA Anti-Trans Referendum On Path To Failure

Many activists around the state are watching the Secretary of State's ballot measure website with great interest as the signatures that were submitted in support of an attempt to repeal AB 1266 by voter referendum. AB 1266 is a landmark law signed by Governor Jerry Brown this summer that establishes a statewide policy that students in public schools can participate in all educational activities i accordance with their preferred gender identity, which may not be aligned with their biological sex. The largest school district in the state, Los Angeles Unified, already had such a policy, but this is the first legislation expanding this idea to an entire state.

The total number of signatures that were submitted by the strict gender separatists who want to repeal the law was 614,311.

In order to qualify the measure for the November 2014 ballot, exactly 504,760 of these signatures must be considered valid. In other words, approximately 82.2% of the submitted signatures must be valid. Typically, it is expected around two-thirds of submitted signatures are valid, which is why people usually submit 200% of the required valid number (at least a million).

If the projected number of valid signatures from the county-based checks of sampled signatures is between 95% (479,522) and 110% (555,236) then this would cause every submitted signature to be examined. If the projected number is greater than 110% then the measure is said to have qualified for the ballot.

If the projected number of valid signatures obtained from the county-based checks of sampled signatures falls below 95% of the required number then the measure is said to have failed.

Karen Ocamb over at Frontiers L.A. notes that:

--- Since 1989, the average signature validity rate for qualified ballot measures has been 75.94%---- Prop. 8 had a validity percentage of 79.82%.---- Proponents of the referendum on AB 1266 say they submitted 620,000 signatures. They need 504,760 to qualify which would be 81.41% validity rate.---- Since 1992, only 9 of the 134 qualifying measures have had a validity rate over 81%.---- At the average 75.94% validity rate the measure would fail to qualify with just 470,828 valid signatures.----  At the Prop 8 validity rate of 79.82% the measure would fail to qualify with just 494,884 valid signatures

County clerks around the state are checking a sample of submitted signatures for the proposed AB 1266 referendum and currently the validity rate is 76.67%, which indicates that the projected number of valid signatures that have been submitted would miss the 95% target for complete examination by 8,530! 

The Secretary of State will make a determination by January 8, 2014.