2021 OSCARS: My Predictions in the Top 8 Categories

Here is my annual prediction post for the 2021 Oscars, i.e. the 93nd Academy Awards. I really just consider the Top 8 categories on the blog but I often play the Oscar prediction game like lots of other people (on other websites) where I think about all 24 categories.  In 2019 I predicted 4 of 8 categories correctly and in 2020 I predicted 6 of 8 correctly.  This year I have seen all of the Best Picture nominees.

Best Picture:

• “The Father” 
• “Judas and the Black Messiah”
  
• "Mank"
• “Minari” 
• “Nomadland” 
• “Promising Young Woman” 
• “Sound of Metal” 
• “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
  

SHOULD WIN: Minari.
WILL WIN: Nomadland.

Director:

• Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”)
• David Fincher (“Mank”)
• Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”)
• Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”)
  
• Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”)

SHOULD WIN: David Fincher, Mank.

WILL WIN: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland.

Lead Actor:

• Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”)
• Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey's Black Bottom”)
• Anthony Hopkins (“The Father")
• Gary Oldman (“Mank”)
• Steven Yeun  (“Minari”)

SHOULD WIN: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal.

WILL WIN: Chadwick  Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

Lead Actress:

• Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey's Black Bottom”)
• Andra Day (“The United States v. Billie Holiday”)
• Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”)
• Frances McDormand  (“Nomadland”)
• Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”)
  

SHOULD WIN: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

WILL WIN: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman.

Supporting Actor:

• Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)
• Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
• Leslie Odom Jr. (“One Night in Miami”)
• Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”)
• Lakeith Stanfield  (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)

SHOULD WIN: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah.

WILL WIN: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah.

Supporting Actress:

• Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”)
• Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”)
• Olivia Colman (“The Father”)
• Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”)
• Yuh-jung Youn (“Minari”)

SHOULD WIN: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy.

WILL WIN: Yuh-jung Youn, Minari.

Original Screenplay:

• Will Berson and Shaka King (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
• Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”)
• Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”)
• Darius Marder and Abraham Marder (“Sound of Metal”)
• Aaron Sorkin (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)
  

SHOULD WIN: Minari.

WILL WIN: Promising Young Woman.

Adapted Screenplay:

• Sacha Baron Cohen et alia (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”)
• Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller (“The Father”)
• Chloe Zhao (“Nomadland”)
• Kemp Powers (“One Night in Miami”)
• Ramin Bahrani (“The White Tiger”)
  

SHOULD WIN: The Father.

WILL WIN: Nomadland.