2022 OSCARS: My Predictions in the Top 8 Categories

Here is my annual prediction post for the 2022 Oscars, i.e. the 94th Academy Awards. I really just consider the Top 8 categories on the blog but I often play the Oscar prediction game like lots of other people (on other websites) where I think about all 24 categories.  In 2019 I predicted 4 of 8 categories correctly and in 2020 I predicted 6 of 8 correctly.  Last year, I predicted 5 of 8 correctly. This year I have seen 7 of the (bolded) 10 Best Picture nominees (haven't seen Drive My Car, West Side Story or CODA). I do intend to see CODA regardless of whether it wins Best Picture.

Best Picture:

• "Belfast" 
• "CODA" 
• "Don't Look Up"
• "Drive My Car"
• "Dune" 
• "King Richard"
• "Licorice Pizza"
  
• "Nightmare Alley"
• "The Power of the Dog"
• "West Side Story"

SHOULD WIN: Dune.
WILL WIN: The Power of the Dog.

Director:

• Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”)
• Ryusuke Hamaguchi (“Drive My Car”)
• Paul Thomas Anderson (“Licorice Pizza”)
• Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”)
  
• Steven Spielberg (“West Side Story”)

SHOULD WIN: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog.

WILL WIN: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog.

Lead Actor:

• Javier Bardem (“Being the Ricardos”)
• Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”)
• Andrew Garfield (“Tick,Tick,...Boom!")
• Will Smith (“King Richard”)
• Denzel Washington  (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”)

SHOULD WIN: Will Smith, King Richard.

WILL WIN: Will Smith, King Richard.

Lead Actress:

• Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”)
• Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”)
• Penélope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”)
• Nicole Kidman  (“Being the Ricardos”)
• Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”)
  

SHOULD WIN: Kristen Stewart, Spencer.

WILL WIN: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Supporting Actor:

• Ciarán Hinds (“Belfast”)
• Troy Kotsur (“CODA”)
• Jesse Plemons (“The Power of the Dog”)
• J.K. Simmons (“Being the Ricardos”)
• Kodi Smit-McPhee  (“The Power of the Dog”)

SHOULD WIN: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog.

WILL WIN: Troy Katsur, CODA.

Supporting Actress:

• Jessie Buckley (“The Lost Daughter”)
• Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”)
• Judi Dench (“Belfast”)
• Kirsten Dunst  (“The Power of the Dog”)
• Aunjanue Ellis (“King Richard”)

SHOULD WIN: Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard.

WILL WIN: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story.

Original Screenplay:

• Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”)
• Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay & David Sirota (“Don't Look Up”)
• Zach Baylin (“King Richard”)
• Paul Thomas Anderson ("Licorice Pizza")
• Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier (“The Worst Person in the World”)
  

SHOULD WIN: Belfast.

WILL WIN: Belfast.

Adapted Screenplay:

• Siân Heder (“CODA”)
• Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe (“Drive My Car”)
• Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth (“Dune”)
• Maggie Gyllenhaal ("The Lost Daughter")
• Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”)
  

SHOULD WIN: Dune.

WILL WIN: CODA.