2023 OSCARS: My Predictions for the Top 8 Categories

Here is my annual prediction post for the 2022 Oscars, i.e. the 95th Academy Awards. I really just consider the Top 8 categories on the blog but I often play the Oscar prediction game like lots of other people (on other websites) where I think about all 24 categories. I generally split my predictions into who I want to win versus (i.e. who I would vote for) as opposed to who I think will win (i.e. who the Academy voters will vote for).

In 2020 I predicted 6 of 8 correctly and last year I predicted 7 of  8 correctly. This year I have seen 6 of the (bolded) 10 Best Picture nominees (haven't seen The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness or Women Talking as of this writing but I do intend to watch The Fabelmans eventually). 

Best Picture:

• "All Quiet on the Western Front" 
• "Avatar: The Way of Water" 
• "The Banshees of Inisherin"
• "Elvis"
• "Everything Everywhere All at Once" 
• "The Fabelmans"
• "Tár"
  
• "Top Gun: Maverick"
• "Triangle of Sadness"
• "Women Talking"

SHOULD WIN: Avatar: The Way of Water.
WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Director:

• Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
• Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
• Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”) 
• Todd Field (“Tár”) 
• Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

SHOULD WIN: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once.

WILL WIN: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Lead Actor:

• Austin Butler (“Elvis”)  
• Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
• Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”) 
• Bill Nighy (“Living”) 

SHOULD WIN: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin.

WILL WIN: Austin Butler, Elvis.

Lead Actress:

• Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) 
• Ana de Armas (“Blonde”) 
• Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
• Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”) 
• Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

SHOULD WIN: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once.

WILL WIN: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Supporting Actor:

• Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”) 
• Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)
• Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 

SHOULD WIN: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

WILL WIN: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Supporting Actress:

• Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”) 
• Hong Chau (“The Whale”) 
• Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
• Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
• Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

SHOULD WIN: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.

WILL WIN: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.

Adapted Screenplay:

• “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
• “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” Written by Rian Johnson
• “Living,” Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
• “Top Gun: Maverick,” Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
• “Women Talking,” Screenplay by Sarah Polley

SHOULD WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front.

WILL WIN: Women Talking.

Original Screenplay:

• “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Written by Martin McDonagh
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
• “The Fabelmans,” Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
• “Tár,” Written by Todd Field
• “Triangle of Sadness,” Written by Ruben Östlund

SHOULD WIN: Tár.

WILL WIN: The Banshees of Inisherin.