Sunday, March 27, 2022

2022 OSCARS: My Predictions in the Top 8 Categories

Here is my annual prediction post for the 2022 Oscars, i.e. the 94th Academy Awards. I really just consider the Top 8 categories on the blog but I often play the Oscar prediction game like lots of other people (on other websites) where I think about all 24 categories.  In 2019 I predicted 4 of 8 categories correctly and in 2020 I predicted 6 of 8 correctlyLast year, I predicted 5 of 8 correctly. This year I have seen 7 of the (bolded) 10 Best Picture nominees (haven't seen Drive My Car, West Side Story or CODA). I do intend to see CODA regardless of whether it wins Best Picture.

Best Picture:
  • "Belfast" 
  • "CODA" 
  • "Don't Look Up"
  • "Drive My Car"
  • "Dune" 
  • "King Richard"
  • "Licorice Pizza"
  • "Nightmare Alley"
  • "The Power of the Dog"
  • "West Side Story"

WILL WIN: The Power of the Dog.

  • Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”)
  • Ryusuke Hamaguchi (“Drive My Car”)
  • Paul Thomas Anderson (“Licorice Pizza”)
  • Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”)
  • Steven Spielberg (“West Side Story”)
SHOULD WIN: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog.
WILL WIN: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog.

Lead Actor:
  • Javier Bardem (“Being the Ricardos”)
  • Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”)
  • Andrew Garfield (“Tick,Tick,...Boom!")
  • Will Smith (“King Richard”)
  • Denzel Washington  (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”)
SHOULD WIN: Will Smith, King Richard.
WILL WIN: Will Smith, King Richard.

Lead Actress:
  • Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”)
  • Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”)
  • Penélope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”)
  • Nicole Kidman  (“Being the Ricardos”)
  • Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”)
SHOULD WIN: Kristen Stewart, Spencer.
WILL WIN: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Supporting Actor:
  • Ciarán Hinds (“Belfast”)
  • Troy Kotsur (“CODA”)
  • Jesse Plemons (“The Power of the Dog”)
  • J.K. Simmons (“Being the Ricardos”)
  • Kodi Smit-McPhee  (“The Power of the Dog”)
SHOULD WIN: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog.
WILL WIN: Troy Katsur, CODA.

Supporting Actress:
  • Jessie Buckley (“The Lost Daughter”)
  • Ariana DeBose (West Side Story”)
  • Judi Dench (“Belfast”)
  • Kirsten Dunst  (“The Power of the Dog”)
  • Aunjanue Ellis (“King Richard”)
SHOULD WIN: Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard.
WILL WIN: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story.

Original Screenplay:
  • Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”)
  • Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay & David Sirota (“Don't Look Up”)
  • Zach Baylin (“King Richard”)
  • Paul Thomas Anderson ("Licorice Pizza")
  • Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier (“The Worst Person in the World)
SHOULD WIN: Belfast.
WILL WIN: Belfast.

Adapted Screenplay:
  • Siân Heder (“CODA”)
  • Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe (“Drive My Car”)
  • Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth (“Dune”)
  • Maggie Gyllenhaal ("The Lost Daughter")
  • Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”)

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