AUS OPEN 2011: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the 2011 Australian Open.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) Marin Cilic CRO (15) vs. Milos Raonic CAN David Ferrer ESP (7). I thought that the 6'6" 2010 Australian Open semifinalist from Croatia would have followed up on his 5-set win over John Isner with a better showing against Rafael Nadal. However, the World #1 came out with a strong game plan since Cilic had beaten him in their one meeting in October 2009 and dismantled the Croatian in straight sets 6-2 6-4 6-3.  David Ferrer has been called the best service returner in the world by both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal and he demonstrated that ability against the huge serving 20-year-old, 6-foot-5-inch Canadian. Ferrer is only 5'9" but has optimized the amount of tennis success a male player can extract from such a slight frame. He is also one of the fittest players on tour and very speedy. The problem is, everything he can do, Nadal can do better, and Nadal is a lefty. Head-to-head the two have played 14 times with the more celebrated Spaniard winning all but 3 of their meetings. Ferrer does have a notable win over Nadal in the 2007 US Open quarterfinals, but unfortunately he will be playing the vastly improved 2011 version. The difference will be very clear. PREDICTION: Nadal in 3 sets.

Robin Soderling SWE (4) Alexandr Dolgopolov UKR  vs. Andy Murray GBR (5). The only unseeded player in the final 8 is the 22-year-old counterpuncher from Ukraine. From the way World #4 Robin Soderling was dismissing his opponents and hitting the ball in first three rounds I had expected him to have few problems getting past Dolgopolov but Soderling has never done well at the Australian Open and also doesn't like to play in windy conditions. That being said, the biggest problem he had on court was not the weather but the phenomenal defense and gigantic serving of the Ukrainian. Soderling was not playing his best tennis and ran into an opponent who could take advantage of this opportunity to reach his first major quarterfinal. Andy Murray has been playing some of the sharpest tennis of any of the legitimate contenders. He demolished  crafty lefty Jurgen Melzer and has yet to lose more than 3 games in a set through four rounds! Melzer at #11 and Guiullermo-Garcia at #32 are the only seeded players the Brit has faced on his way to an inevitable showdown with World #1 Rafael Nadal in the semifinals, whom he was on track to dismiss in the quarterfinals last year when Nadal retired. Of course the Spaniard went on to win every other Grand Slam for the rest of 2010, but I think that Murray does not fear Nadal on a hard-court. Will we see a reprise of the 2010 Australian Open final between Murray and Federer or a reprise of the 2009 Australian Open final between Nadal and Federer or something else? Only time will tell. PREDICTION: Murray in 3 sets. 

Tomas Berdych CZE (6) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (3). This should be the best battle of the quarterfinal round, a showdown between the 2010 Wimbledon finalist and the 2010 US Open finalist. Djokovic has won this title before (over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 2008) although the Frenchman was able to get revenge last year in this round. Head-to-head Berdych has only beaten Djokovic once, but it was a blowout in the 2010 Wimbledon semifinals. Since then, the Serbian has had multiple breakthroughs, including an epic 2010 US Open semifinal win over Roger Federer and anchoring his country to their first ever Davis Cup title. Berdych played near-perfect tennis in a tremendous 3-set dismissal of Fernando Verdasco in the 4th round (featuring a final set where the Czech was crushing the ball and had either 1 or 2 unforced errors). If Berdych plays like that, even a prodigiously talented ball-striker and mellifluously mobile player as Djokovic will have trouble surviving the onslaught. Another factor is that Djokovic's results are often sensitive to the weather conditions; if this match is played during the day then even a 3-set win will be unlikely for the Serb. PREDICTION:  Djokovic in 3 sets or Berdych in 4 or 5 sets.

Stanislas Wawrinka SUI (19) vs. Roger Federer SUI (2). These two are best friends and share a lot in common: they come from the same country, are both young fathers and are both undefeated in 2011 so far. Together they won the Gold medal in men's doubles at the Beijing Olympics in 2008. Head-to-head the two have played 7 times, with Wawrinka winning once on clay. They have only played once in a grand slam, with Federer winning that as well. Wawrinka has come up with some good upsets in the last two Slams (defeating Andy Roddick and Gael Monfils in this tournament and Andy Murray and Sam Querrey in the 2010 US Open) but I doubt that storyline will continue with the defending champion. This match should feature some exquisite one-handed backhands: my favorite shot! PREDICTION: Federer in 4 sets.