Murray is coming off one of the biggest match wins of his careers by beating one of the three people in the world who is higher rated than he is for the first time in a Very Important tournament. He was able to outplay 5-time major champion Novak Djokovic 7-5 7-5 to ensure the host country a medal.
Federer is coming off winning the longest 3-set match of all time, (3-6 7-6(5) 19-17), the 4 hour-26-minute slugfest with Juan Martin del Potro, in the semifinals. Even though he is just a few days from his 31st birthday, the Swiss Great should be completely prepared to play another historic best-of-5 set match.
Federer and Murray now have a completely even career head--to-head of 8-all, but in 5-set matches Federer leads 3-0, all of which have occurred in huge matches (2008 US Open final, 2010 Australian Open final and 2012 Wimbledon final). It is true that Murray is getting closer to actually winning one of these matches, and he will have huge crowd support but I still find it hard to bet against Federer on grass, at the All-England Lawn Tennis Club where he has played 8 finals and won 7 of them. Only Rafael Nadal and del Potro have ever beaten Federer in a major final.
Murray definitely has a pretty good chance of winning, but in order to maximize his chances of doing so he needs to serve very well (above 75% service percentage) and return even better (keep Federer at below 50% of points won on second serve). Also, if the match is played with the roof open for its entirety that will definitely help Murray. If all these things happen AND Federer is tired and/or nervous then Murray could win his first major-equivalent tournament. For all these things to happen in Murray's favor is very unlikely, as would be a victory by someone other than Federer.
MadProfessah's Prediction: Federer.
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