SATURDAY POLITICS: Poll Shows Marriage Equality Support Above 60%

A new poll from ABC News/Washington Post indicates that support for marriage equality is at an all-time high just as the United States Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in a case (Obergefell v. Hodges) that could strike down the remaining state marriage bans next week. There are 37 states that have marriage equality right now, and the latest poll says that 61% of all respondents support marriage equality with only 35% in opposition. More interesting is the fact that intensity of support is with the proponents of marriage equality (40% strongly support marriage equality as opposed to 25% that oppose marriage equality strongly).

The Washington Post analysis of the new poll says:

There are 37 states, plus the District of Columbia, where, through the legislative process or court order, gay couples are allowed to marry. In those place, 64 percent say such unions should be legal. But even in the 13 states where same-sex marriage is not legal, 54 percent say it should be. 

The public’s perspective on whether states may forbid same-sex marriage mirrors overall views on the subject, according to the poll. Sixty-one percent oppose allowing states to prohibit same-sex marriages, and 62 percent support requiring states to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states.

There are some people who say there will be a popular opinion backlash if the Supreme Court rules in favor of marriage equality but a recent report from the Williams Institute shows the reverse is true. Opening up marriage to same-sex couples in the past has accelerated the rate at which popular support for marriage equality increases.

The report (Trends in Public Support for Marriage for Sa,e-Sex Couples 2004-2014) concludes:

There are 36 states and the District of Columbia presently with a majority (50% or above) in support of same-sex marriage. And, given trends in public opinion on this issue over the last decade, at least an additional five states will join this group by the start of 2016, with six more states very close to that majority point. 

All states are currently experiencing a trend reflecting increasing popular support for marriage for same-sex couples; the rates of change across states averaged 2.6% over the last ten years. For almost all of the states the rate of change of support has accelerated over the last two years. Since 2012, states have increased support by 6.2% on average. 

Hat/tip to Wonder Man