2014 US OPEN: Men's Final Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's final at the 2014 US Open. This year I have correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 0 of 2 men's semifinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals at the U.S. Open. Last year I incorrectly predicted Novak Djokovic would defeat Rafael Nadal in the 2013 U.S. Open men's final. This year I correctly predicted that Serena Williams would defeat Caroline Wozniacki in the women's final.

WHAT HAPPENED: Men's Semifinal Review

 Kei Nishikori (JPN) [10] d. Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] 6-4 1-6 7-6(4) 6-3. Somehow Nishikori  was able to out-play the World #1 player, Novak Djokovic, who had previously been thought of as (one of) the most physically fit player(s) on tour. But, despite playing two consecutive four-hour, five-set matches the slight (5-foot-10, 150-pounds) Japanese player appeared to be the player with more gas in the tank for the majority of the clash with the 7-time major champion. The key moment of the match was the third set tiebreak after splitting the first two sets. Surprisingly it was Djokovic who blinked in the tiebreak, hitting four unforced errors, including a double fault to lose the momentum in the match. He then went down an early break in the 4th set and Nishikori nursed his lead and then broke Djokovic in the very last game to earn the biggest win of his career to date.

Marin Cilic (CRO) [14] vs Roger Federer (SUI) [2] 6-3 6-4 6-4.  Despite having never beaten the 17-time major champion in five meetings, Marin Cilic came into this match brimming with confidence and proceeded to demonstrate why from the very first point. Blasting untouchable and unreturnable serves into all four corners of the court and moving his 6-foot-6 frame agilely on the punishing surface to hit overpowering groundstrokes, the #14 seed was simply too much for the All-Time Great to handle. Federer served about as well as Cilic (13 aces for Cilic to 12 aces for Federer, 56% versus 61% service percentage, respectively) and also won 50% of his breakpoints but the problem was that Cilic had four times as many break chances (and thus four times as many breaks). Before the semifinal I had suspected that Cilic could be problematic for Federer, speculating that he could cause the same kind of problems for his one-handed backhand that the powerful Juan Martin del Potro had posed for Federer in 2009 and that's basically what happened. Still it was pretty shocking to see both the #1 and #2 seeds lose within hours of each other, confirming that a new era in men's tennis has begun.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN: Men's Final Preview

 Kei Nishikori (JPN) [10] vs Marin Cilic (CRO) [14].

For the first time since the 2005 Australian Open (Marat Safin d. Lleyton Hewitt) no one from the Trivalry at the top of men's tennis (Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic) will be contesting a major final. CBS advertised Monday's final as the first U.S. Open final between "double-digit seeds" which is true, but also besides the point. There are several talented players who now realize they have what it takes to reach a major final, and win it: Stanislas Wawrinka (who actually did it in January this year at the Australian Open) and any of the numerous first time major semifinalists of 2014: Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic, Ernests Gulbis and Kei Nishikori. Just behind them there are players who have squandered past opportunities to break open the monopoly at the top of men's tennis, players like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych and even plucky David Ferrer and mercurial Gael Monfils. It will be fascinating to see which of this crop of players (or perhaps someone else?) becomes a first-time major champion in 2015.

However, first we know that we will have a first-time major champion at the 2014 U.S. Open in Cilic or Nishikori. Head-to-head Nishikori leads Cilic 5-2 including 4-2 on hard-courts but only 1-all in 5-set matches played in New York. This is an ominous sign for the Japanese player because although he is widely regarded as the more talented of the two players, that doesn't mean he will win this match. I fully expect Nishikori to reach more major finals in the future, but I can't say the same for Cilic. I do, however, expect Cilic to win this match, especially if he plays anywhere near the level he played at against Federer. I am convinced that the time he spent away from the court due to the doping suspension last year has mentally toughened Cilic for this experience and I have to believe that the sheer volume of tennis that Nishikori has played will catch up to him at some point before the tournament is over.

It is true that his backhand cross court to Nishikori's backhand will not be as overpowering (in fact, Nishikori has to be given the edge in that department) but if Cilic serves with the same devastating effect that he has all tournament long it will be tough for Nishikori to stay with him. Then again, Cilic is not a better server than Milos Raonic and Nishikori outlasted him in the 4th round, but Cilic is a much much better mover, which is the key advantage has over most of his opponents. By limiting Nishikori's advantage in this area and stretching his advantage in the service area, the Croatian should win his first(and only) major title.

MadProfessah's pick: Cilic.

EYE CANDY: Guilherme Rufino

Courtesy of Hunk du Jour, enjoy these pictures of Guilherme Rufino as today's Eye Candy. Rufino is active on Instagram but I do not know anything more about him (age, height, weight).

2014 US OPEN: Serena Wins 18th Major, 3rd Consecutive U.S. Open

As I predicted, Serena Williams defeated her good friend Caroline Wozniacki in the final of the 2014 U.S. Open, winning her 18th major championship, 3rd consecutive in New York City. Serena won in dominant fashion, 6-3 6-3, despite a nervous first set that saw her barely making more than 1-in-3 first serves and featured 5 breaks of serve in the first 6 games. After that, both players settled down, and once Serena's service percentage went up, she concentrated on maintaining her early break advantage in the final set by serving powerfully and pushing her opponent all over the court,, eventually ending the match on another service break two points after a thrilling 26-stroke rally that the American also won.

Serena's win was the 5th time that she has won a major title without dropping a set--in fact no player won more than 3 games in a single set with her all tournament long. Winning 18 majors means that she will go down in history as a legendary American tennis player, currently tied with the great Chris Evert and Martina Navratilova and could possibly catch up to Steffi Graf's 22 before she retires. At age 32 (just a few weeks before her 33rd birthday) Serena is the oldest major champion since Navratilova won her ninth(!) Wimbledon title at age 33 in 1990.

Currently ranked #1 and threatening to play until at least the Rio Olympics in 2016, Serena has a decent chance of reaching at least 20 titles.

2014 US OPEN: Women's Final Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's final at the 2014 US Open. This year I have correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 0 of 2 men's semifinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals at the U.S. Open. Last year I correctly predicted Serena Williams would defeat Victoria Azarenka in the 2013 U.S. Open women's final.

WHAT HAPPENED: Women's Semifinal Review

Serena Williams (USA) [1] d. Ekaterina Makarova (RUS) [17] 6-1 6-3. Serena Williams got revenge for her loss to Makarova in the doubles draw by opening up a can of whoops a** in their singles match. Serena had lost to the lefty Russian in a major before so she took this match very serious and was never in any danger of losing, enjoying hefty leads in both sets. Serena ended the match with 24 winners to only 15 unforced errors.

Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [10] d. Shuai Peng (CHN) 7-6(1) 4-3 (ret.). As expected, Wozniacki was able to reach her second career major final by outlasting Peng Shuai. However, what was unexpected was the near-farcical manner in which the match concluded when Peng collapsed on the court due to heat exhaustion after leaving the court for 10 minutes prior where she was assessed and treated by medical professionals. The match ended with a retirement from Peng and soon after she was removed from the court in wheelchair!

WHAT WILL HAPPEN: Women's Final Preview

Serena Williams (USA) [1] vs Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [10].  Serena boasts an 8-1 head-to-head over her gal pal Caro and has to be highly favored to finally win the 18th major title of her career. The main problem for Wozniacki is that she has no weapon that  Serena has to fear. Wozniacki's best chance to win the match (which certainly is possible) is if she is able to absorb and redirect her opponent's power and ultimately frustrate Serena into making too many unforced errors. 
This is unlikely to happen because Serena does not have to bring out her overwhelming weaponry to overpower Caroline. 

It is significant that the two have met twice in the last three weeks and both matches were tight, tough 3-set affairs decided late in the 3rd set. It is also true, that mentally, more pressure will be on Serena, because she will be expected to win this match. For Wozniacki no one ever thought she would reach another major final, so just by reaching the final she has exceeded expectations. However, as Billie Jean King says, "Pressure is a privilege" and I'm confident Serena will get through the pressure situation to win her 3rd consecutive title in New York, and record 18th overall, tying the mark of Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert. PREDICTION: Williams.

2014 US OPEN: Nishikori Stuns Djokovic To Reach First Major Final

Kei Nishikori defied predictions and historical precedent and followed up his two five-set, four-hour matches with a 4-set, 3-hour win over World #1 Novak Djokovic. By winning 6-4 1-6 7-6(4) 6-3, Nishikori became the first Asian male player to reach a grand slam final. Djokovic had reached the last five major finals (and four consecutive finals in New York) so his loss in the semifinal was quite a shock.

2014 US OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the US Open for 2014. Last year I correctly predicted  4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. This year I have correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals at the U.S. Open.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Stan Wawrinka (SUI) [3] Kei Nishikori (JPN) [10]. Djokovic handily won the quarterfinal clash between U.S. Open champions when he beat Andy Murray in four sets, demonstrating again why he has been in the final in New York for the last four consecutive years. Nishikori has had to win not one but two epic 5-set battles in a row to reach his first major semifinal over two Top 5 seeds (Milos Raonic and  Stan Wawrinka). The fact that he has to face World #1 Novak Djokovic who has shown again and again that he is willing to do whatever it takes (i.e. stay on court for nearly 6 hours) to win a major title is unfortunate. It's somewhat interesting that both of these players have "celebrity" coaches, with Djokovic working with 6-time major champion Boris Becker and Nishikori working with French Open champion Michael Chang. It's hard to believe that Nishikori will have the resources to hang with Djokovic for much more than 3 or possibly 4 sets. However if you look at their head-to-head record the two have only played each other twice (in 2010 and 2011) and each won once. The two were supposed to have played in the semifinals of Miami this year after Nishikori had a breakthrough win over Roger Federer but Nishikori's body betrayed him and he had to default. I doubt Nishikori will default such an important, historic match, but I seriously doubt it will be much of a  match. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Marin Cilic (CRO) [14] vs Roger Federer (SUI) [2].  Despite the fact that these two players have met five times with one player winning every time does not mean this match will be a blowout for that player. Federer recognizes this fact in his commentary on this match because Cilic is playing tennis at a quantum leap higher than he did before his questionable suspension from last year. He finally earned a win against Gilles Simon in the 4th round (after 4 consecutive losses on hard courts) and he sprinted past Tomas Berdych in a straight sets quarterfinal win despite a 3-5 head-to-head deficit. So, Cilic (and his celebrity coach Goran Ivanisevic) will take the winless record as a challenge. The two played a few weeks ago in Toronto and Federer barely prevailed after blowing more than a fistful of match points in the second set. If Federer is not sharp from the first ball in, he will not be getting opportunities to mount an amazing comeback victory like the one he pulled out against Gael Monfils in the quarterfinals. That five set win after losing the first two sets  in the quarterfinals demonstrates the burning desire that Federer has to reach another (his 26th!) major final. Federer thinks that Cilic's game is reminiscent of Monfils' (big serve, tall guy with long reach and powerful forehand) but the better comparison might be Juan Martin del Potro (very tall guy with huge serves, and a great mover with devastating power on both wings). The truth is that Cilic is probably somewhere in between Monfils and del Potro, but Federer probably has the tools to deal with whatever the Croat brings to the court today. Mad Professah's pick: Federer.

2014 US OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the US Open for 2014. Last year I correctly predicted  4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. This year I have correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals at the U.S. Open.

Serena Williams (USA) [1] vs Ekaterina Makarova (RUS) [17] Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [16].  17-time major champion Serena Williams is only 2 matches away from her long-awaited 18th major title, and 3rd consecutive in New York City. Standing in her way is the lefty Russian who was on the other side of the net when Serena's run in the doubles with her sister Venus Williams came to an end on Tuesday in the quarterfinals. Serena boasts a clear 3-1 head-to-head lead on Makarova. However, that one win came in a grand slam (2012 Australian Open) so Serena knows better than to take this match-up lightly. Makarova is playing some of the best tennis of her life, having reached her first major semifinal of her career.  However, there are only four people who have more than win against Serena Williams in a major (Venus, Jennifer Capriati, Justine Henin and Samantha Stosur). Does anyone think that Ekaterina Makarova is going to be added to this list? PREDICTION: Williams.

Shuai Peng (CHN) vs Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [10]. Both players are playing some of the best tennis of their lives. Peng still has not dropped a set through 5 rounds of play here and has been one of the best doubles players in the world for the last year. Wozniacki's resurgence has been well-documented and clearly came to fruition with her gutsy 3-set win over Sharapova in the fourth round and her ruthless demolition of Sara Errani in the quarterfinal (giving up only one game!) The Great Dane has a 5-1 head-to-head advantage over Peng, but more than that she wants to get into a major final, especially against her good friend Serena Williams, whom she knows she can win at least one set against, after all she has done it twice in the last month.  PREDICTION: Wozniacki. 

CELEBRITY FRIDAY: (Openly Lesbian) Megan Smith Named CTO of United States

This is very cool news! A former acquaintance of mine, Megan Smith, who is now known as one of the most prominent out people in Silicon Valley as a Vice President at Google with responsibility for its non-profit activities, has been named the Chief Technology Officer of the United States by President Barack Obama!

The official announcement was made by Dr. Joh Holdren, the Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy today in a blog post where he quoted President Obama saying:

Megan has spent her career leading talented teams and taking cutting-edge technology and innovation initiatives from concept to design to deployment. I am confident that in her new role as America’s Chief Technology Officer, she will put her long record of leadership and exceptional skills to work on behalf of the American people. I am grateful for her commitment to serve, and I look forward to working with her and with our new Deputy U.S. CTO, Alexander Macgillivray, in the weeks and months ahead.

This is a very cool sign to women (and openly LGBT) that this President will appoint people to prominent and important positions that they are qualified for.

7th U.S. Circuit Strikes Down WISCONSIN & INDIANA Bans On Marriage Equality

Less than two weeks after hearing oral arguments in the marriage equality cases involving Indiana and Wisconsin a 3-judge panel of the 7th U.S. Circuit unanimously upheld the lower court rulings in Wolf v. Walker (Wisconsin) and Baskin v. Bogan (Indiana), in a scathing opinion written by Judge Richard Posner striking down state marriage bans as violating the federal constitution. The 7th becomes the third federal appellate court, after the 10th in Denver, CO (June 25 and July 18)and the 4th in Richmond, VA (July 28)  to rule in favor of marriage equality this year.

Louisiana Federal Judge Issues Poorly Reasoned Decision Upholding Gay Marriage Ban

The string of twenty victories at the federal level for marriage equality since June 2013's United States v. Windsor decision came to an end on Wednesday when a Reagan-appointee district court judge in Louisiana ruled that state's ban on marriage equality does NOT violate the United States Constitution's guarantees of equal protection or due process.

Some observers immediately criticized the Robicheaux v. Caldwell ruling for multiple errors of judicial analysis, false statements and blatant bigotry.

 Judge Feldman did not spew the kind of hate that comes from the National Organization for Marriage or the Liberty Council or the Westboro Baptist Church. Nor, on the other hand, was he even remotely supportive. Besides calling being gay a "lifestyle choice" (Error 1) and comparing gays marrying to incest (Error 2), he asserted that the right the plaintiffs sought was a "new right," one definitely not steeped in the democratic tradition of this country--namely, a right to same-sex marriage (Error 3).

The judge makes basic constitutional errors like misstating the levels of scrutiny required in equal protection cases, calling them "rational basis, intermediate scrutiny and heightened scrutiny" when even my first-year students know that the levels of scrutiny used by the Supreme Court are rational basis, heightened scrutiny (sometimes called intermediate scrutiny) and strict scrutiny.

We shall see if this ruling will have any effect on the ultimate question of whether states have the right under the U.S. constitution to deny the fundamental right to marry to same-sex couples while allowing opposite-sex couples to enjoy the rights, privileges and responsibilities of civil marriage.

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God.

2014 US OPEN: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the US Open for 2014. Last year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. 

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Andy Murray (GBR) [8]. This mouth watering match-up between major champions is a reprise of the thrilling 2012 U.S. Open championship match which was won by Murray. In fact, both major titles that Murray has won have come at the expense of Djokovic, despite the fact the Serb leads their head-to-head 12-8 overall (10-6 on hard courts). So, really, the fact that this match is a quarterfinal and not on the final weekend probably helps Djokovic. Murray has only beaten one top 10 player since winning Wimbledon last year, and that was Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the round before. Djokovic is coming off a bad summer of results after finally capturing his 7th major title at Wimbledon over Roger Federer. However, Djokovic has been the best hard-court player in the world for the last four years, reaching four consecutive finals in New York and winning three titles in Australia. He is playing in his 22nd consecutive quarterfinal and is the #1 player in the world. With all these intangibles in his favor, why bet against him? Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Stan Wawrinka (SUI) [3] vs Milos Raonic (CAN) [5] Kei Nishikori (JPN) [10]. Nishikori  has to win an epic 5-set battle with his Generation Next rival Milos Raonic in the fourth round which lasted more than four hours and ended at 2:26am (bizarrely, tying the record again for the latest match finish at the U.S. Open). Nishikori has only been in one major quarterfinal and there have always been concerns that the talented but injury-prone Japanese player has the stamina to go deep in a slam. Meanwhile Wawrinka has been playing Top 3 hard court tennis for the past two years and winning the 2014 Australian Open title and extending Djokovic to five sets in a 2013 U.S. Open semifinal loss reflect that fact. Once you take into account that Nishikori has never beaten the Swiss player in their two previous meetings, the odds start to look worse and worse for the upset happening here. Mad Professah's pick: Wawrinka.

Tomas Berdych (CZE) [6] vs Marin Cilic (CRO) [14]. For some reason these two players tend not to have close matches in the eight career meetings, despite their similarity in appearance and style (both are above 6-foot-5 with gigantic serves and powerful groundstrokes on both sides). Berdych  leads their rivalry 5-3 and has been a permanent fixture in the Top 5 for the last several years and has a breakout run to a major final at Wimbledon 2010. Cilic did very well to get past Gilles Simon in the 4th round despite losing to the wily Frenchman in four previous final-set matches. Berdych has been having a relatively bad year (for him) with only one title (Cilic has two) but actually in the majors he has not been doing badly, with two quarterfinals and a semifinal run so far. What stands out is the third round loss he suffered to Cilic at Wimbledon. Cilic is one of the most motivated players on tour, since last year he couldn't even play this tournament because he was suspended for an inadvertently failed drug test. I think the Croat will use that perceived injustice to fuel him to his very first major semifinal berth. Mad Professah's pick: Cilic.

Roger Federer (SUI) [2] vs Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) [7] Gael Monfils (FRA) [20].  This will be a tougher match then it looks on paper. Despite Federer having a 7-2 head-to-head advantage over the French super-athlete, Monfils has nearly limitless potential, and at age 28, appears to be settling down to try and achieve legacy-building results. Monfils has been in 5 major quarterfinals and is 1-4 at this level. In the biggest match of his career, he lost to Federer at Roland Garros in 2008 semifinals. However Monfils fans (and I am one of them) can take heart in the fact that through four rounds at the U.S. Open this year Monfils is yet to lose a set and the two wins La Monf does have over Federer occurred on hard courts. In fact, the two met just a few weeks ago in Cincinnati and Federer was lucky to pull out at 6-4 4-6 6-3 win on his way to the title. Another point to note is that Monfils was able to dismiss the talented Grigor Dimitrov, whose game is not dissimilar to Federer's with huge serving and a hefty dose of luck. If it gets to a fifth set, anything can happen, but I suspect it won't get that far (unfortunately. Mad Professah's pick: Federer.

2014 US OPEN: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the US Open for 2014. Last year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

Serena Williams (USA) [1] vs Flavia Pennetta (ITA) [11].  For the second time in three years one quarter of the U.S. Open quarterfinalists are from Italy. The last time it happened the two Italians faced each other and for the last two years there has been an Italian semifinalist at the U.S. Open. However, I doubt that it will happen a third year in a row. Flavia Penetta has had her best results here in New York, and reached the semifinals last year (losing to Azarenka in two very ugly, error-prone sets). Unfortunately for Flavia, instead of being drawn to face Vika again, she has to play Serena, who, now that she is in the business end of a major for the first time in 2014 is more determined than ever to finally capture Major #18, especially since she is the only member of the WTA Top 10 left remaining in the draw.  PREDICTION: Williams.

Ekaterina Makarova (RUS) [17] Eugenie Bouchard (CAN) [7] vs. Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [16]. day For the first time in a major all year, the quarterfinals will not be graced with the presence of Genie Bouchard of Canada. Instead the powerful Russian lefty reached the final 8 of her second consecutive major tournament as well as her second consecutive U.S. open quarters here in New York  She did so by controlling her nerves and her shots while the most improved player of the year started wilting in the heat and humidity of Flushing Meadows. This will be Makarova's 5th major quarterfinal but she is 0-4 so far. She'll play Vika Azarenka who is gunning to reach her 3rd consecutive final and return to her place of prominence in women's tennis. Fortunately for Vika, she leads Makarova 3-2 in their career head-to-head including 2 wins on hard courts. PREDICTION: Azarenka.

Shuai Peng (CHN) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) [4] vs Jelena Jankovic (SRB) [9] Belinda Bencic (SUI). Peng is having a career-best performance in New York. She has already dismissed #4 seed Agnieska Radwanska, #14 Lucie Safarova and #28 Roberta Vinci to reach this far, so surely she won't falter against the unseeded teen sensation that is Belinda Bencic of Switzerland? Bencic, 17, is playing in her very first major quarterfinal, having surprised #9 Jelena Jankovic in a match only she and her coach Martina Hingis thought she could win. But Bencic won decisively. In some sense the Swiss player has had the more impressive road to get to this point, having dismissed two top 10 players (Jankovic and #6 Angelique Kerber). This match means so much to the players that it will almost certainly result in horrible tennis, and in the end it is very unlikely the victor will win their next match to reach their first career final. PREDICTION: Bencic. 

Sara Errani (ITA) [13] vs. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [10] Maria Sharapova (RUS) [5]. Wozniacki played one of the best matches of her life to absorb and redirect Maria Sharapova's powerful groundstrokes to outlast the 5-time major champion and earn a stunning (and rare) victory over one of the Big Babes of women's tennis. After seeing her ex-fiance' Rory Mcilroy go on to win two major golf championships after ending their relationship, Wozniacki has been playing with increased intensity and verve all summer long, with good results to show for it (like taking Serna Williams to 3 sets in both Montreal and Cincinnati) . With the upset of multiple top seeds from her half of the draw, the Dane is now the highest rated player in her half of the draw and she has always been an expert in beating players she is supposed to beat while coming up short against players with more power and stature than she has. Surprisingly, these two players have only met three times on tour and although Wozniacki leads 2-1 she hasn't played La Grande Sara since the Italian became ensconced in the Top 10 of women's tennis. No matter, this is a golden opportunity for Wozniacki and I would be shocked if she didn't take advantage of it to reach her 2nd major final and a chance to (finally) win her first major title. PREDICTION: Wozniacki. 

QUEER QUOTE: HI Gov. Abercrombie Blames 36 Point Primary Loss On Marriage Equality

Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie lost the Democratic nomination for Governor by over 36 percentage points a few weeks ago.

This was quite an astonishing rebuke to the sitting governor of a blue state and it was a surprise to some since Abercrombie outspent his opponent 10-to1 but lost by a 2-to-1 margin to state Senator David Ige. Even more surprising, however, is the supposedly progressive ally blaming his support for marriage equality on his electoral defeat, something the Governor did in interviews recently which becomes today's Queer Quote.

Speaking to reporters in his office, Abercrombie said Republicans, who are allowed to vote in the state's open primary, crossed over to vote against him because of his maneuver to legalize gay marriage. He also claimed that religious leaders urged voters to choose his opponent.

"Republicans crossed over en masse to vote in the Democratic primary, and then the religious factor came in," he said, as quoted by the AP. "Doctrinally I was outside the circle and paid for it."

Who is Abercrombie trying to fool? Does he really think there are enough Republican voters in Hawaii to cause a 35-point deficit in a Democratic primary election? Does he think that voters who were asked about what issues were important to them were lying when they did not mention marriage equality?

EYE CANDY: Elton Ukago

Elton "Agu" Ukago is a model and actor from Los Angeles who, according to his Model Mayhem profile is 30-years-old, 6-foot-2 and 190 pounds. I found him through the Another Guy Blog, where he goes by the name of Agu. He has presences on the social media sites Twitter and Facebook.

Have a nice holiday!

2014 US OPEN: Kvitova(3) Shocked By Qualifier Krunic; Sharapova(5) Ousted By Resurgent Wozniacki

It's been an exciting weekend at the 2014 US Open so far with the disappearance of two major champions from the women's side of the draw. On Saturday, Serbian qualifier Miranda Krunic followed up her earlier upset of hard-hitting American teenager Madison Keys with an even more improbable straight sets 6-4 6-4dismissal of the reigning Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova to reach the 4th round of a major tournament.

Later on that day Serena Williams held off a stiff challenge from Varvara Lepchenko, doing well to win in straight sets 6-3 603 in very difficult, windy conditions.

Then on Sunday, the reigning French Open champion Maria Sharapova was ousted in three very entertaining sets 6-4 2-6 6-2 by a very determined Caroline Wozniacki. Wozniacki will next play Sara Errani and the former World #1 has a very good chance to reach her 3rd U.S. Open final in five years thanks to the upsets which have plagued the bottom half of the draw.

The first big upset occurred on the Men's Side on Sunday with #4 seed David Ferrer losing to Gilles Simon. This could potentially be bad news for Roger Federer, who has never lost to Ferrer but has often struggled against the Frenchman Simon, if both players reach the semifinals by winning their next two matches.

FILM REVIEW: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

This summer's crop of movies has been somewhat disappointing to me. The biggest box-office successes released in summer 2014 are: 1) Guardians of the Galaxy ($262M); 2) Captain America : The Winter Soldier ($259M); 3) Transformers : Age of Extinction ($243M); 4) Maleficent ($237M); 5) X-Men: Days of Future Past ($232M). As you can see, I have only seen 2 of the Top 5 box-office hits to date. In fact, of the three I haven't seen the only one I would probably be interested in trying to see

One of the summer's hits that I wanted to see but almost didn't get around to it is Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, which is at #6 on the summer box-office list with $204M. I didn't see the original in the theaters, but I did see it, and I was impressed by that reboot of the venerable Planet of the Apes franchise starring James Franco to be interested to see how the story develops.

The sequel, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, does not star Franco, but instead is carried by performances by Gary Oldman, Jason Clarke and Andy Serkis (as the motion capture source for Caesar, the talking ape from the first film). However, what sets apart this film from the other summer entertainment is the direction by Matt Reeves as well as a surprisingly clever script.

The new film starts about ten years after the events of the first film. There has been an epidemic which has basically led to a collapse of civilization. The apes from the first film have formed their own society in the depopulated woods of Northern California with Caesar as their leader.

However conflict with the humans resumes when a group lead by Jason Clarke's character ventures into the woods  to try and restart a power station in order to maintain electricity to San Francisco, where a sizable contingent of survivors who are genetically immune to the contagion which has decimated society.

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is the best film that I saw all summer long. The visual effects are truly astonishing, and within the first half-hour you really start to see the apes as fully realized characters with personalities and motivations clearly communicated (mostly through signs and subtitles). The story is compelling because it features both intra-species and inter-species conflicts.

Among the humans, there are factions that refuse to believe that the apes can be anything but dumb animals and want to use their technological advantages (particularly in armaments and weapons) to exterminate the apes and just take over the land that they want to insure their source of electricity.
However, there are humans who want to co-exist with the apes and they are able to negotiate with Caesar to give them enough access to the power station to fix it.

However, among the apes there are those who remember their torture and abuse (some would call it experiments in the name of science!) and who completely distrust the humans. They think that Caesar is too accommodating to the humans and when these apes learn of the stockpile of guns and ammunition the humans have back in the City they are sure this signals treacherous intentions among the humans.

So, the film's plot revolves around the worst elements in both factions inexorably leading the better, more openminded elements of the humans and apes into a violent conflict that will lead to many deaths on both sides.

All of this goes on in the context of the audience's knowledge of the future that these events presage a world where the apes are in complete ascendance and humans are viewed as chattel and uncivilized, violent creatures.

The result is an exciting, thought-provoking and emotionally satisfying movie which is great to look at and lingers with you afterwards as you ponder the issues it raised.

Title:  Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.
Director: Matt Reeves.
Running Time: 2 hours, 10 minutes.
MPAA Rating: Rated PG-13 for intense sequences of sci-fi violence and action, and brief strong language.
Release Date: July 11, 2014.
Viewing Date: August 18, 2014.

Writing: A.
Acting: C.
Visuals: A.
Impact: A-.

Overall Grade: B-/C+ (2.50/4.0).

SATURDAY POLITICS: California Legislature Passes Plastic Bag Ban

Well, well, well! The California legislature has wrapped up its action for the 2014 year, sending numerous bills to the governor for his signature. One of the most closely watched bills was SB270, which would impose a statewide ban on the use of plastic bags.

Senators who had previously opposed the bill, including incoming Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de Leon, a Los Angeles Democrat, this time supported the measure after protections were added for plastic bag manufacturers. 

The bill by Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla of Los Angeles would prohibit single-use plastic bags at grocery stores and large pharmacies in 2015 and at convenience stores in 2016. 

It includes $2 million in loans to help manufacturers shift to producing reusable bags and lets grocers charge 10 cents each for paper and reusable bags.
The bill had sparked one of the most contentious debates in the last weeks of the legislative session, with aggressive lobbying by environmentalists and bag manufacturers.

Glad to see my state senator Kevin de Leon finally changed his position and supported this important legislation! I hope Governor Brown signs it into law soon.

2014 US OPEN: Venus Loses Bizarre 3-Set Battle To Errani; Halep(2) Upset Also

Venus Williams lost a bizarre match to Sara Errani of Italy, 6-0 0-6 7-6(5) in the 3rd round of the 2014 US Open. The two consecutive bagel sets were strange (but not the first time this has happened to Venus in New York) but aso was the fact that she lost to this opponent, sometone she had beaten easily in their first three meetings, giving up only 12 games total previously.

In other upsets on Friday, World #2 Simona Halep lost to Mirjana Lucic-Baroni in straight sets. Lucic-Baroni, who was something of a prodigy in the mid-1990s is now 32 years old and has now reached the 4th round of the uS Open.

2014 US OPEN: Radwanska(4), Ivanovic(8), Cibulkova(12) and Kuznetsova(20) Lose Early

Agnieska Radwanska is the highest seed on either
side of the draw to lose in the first four days of competition

The early rounds of the 2014 US Open are coming to an end and so far all the upsets have been on the women's side of the draw. The #4, #8, #12 and #20 seeds, all very good hard-court players, have been ousted from the tournament. The biggest upset in terms of seeding and popularity is probably officially the straight-sets ouster of former World #2 Agnieska Radwanska at the hands of Peng Shuai, one of the best doubles players in the world.

To my mind, the biggest upset was Ana Ivanovic losing in the 2nd round to Karolina Pliskova despite having won the most matches on tour of any active player and playing quite well during the American hard court summer season, losing the finals of Cincinnati to Serena Williams.
Another surprising loss by a player who was playing well coming into Flushing Meadows was Svetlana Kuznetsova's departure in the first round.

The upset that is getting probably the most press is 15-year-old CiCi Bellis 3-set victory over 2014 Australian Open finalist Dominika Cibulkova. Bellis is more than 2 years younger than any other competitor in the main draw of either the men's or women's singles competition at this year's U.S. Open. She won her right to play by winning the Under-18 championships, the youngest payer to do so since Lindsay Davenport.

Serena and Venus Williams are safely through to the 3rd round. Also, 2014 French Open champion Maria Sharapova and 2014 Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova did not get upset in their first two matches. Sharapova faces Sabine Lisicki in the 3rd round while Venus faces Sara Errani.

QUEER QUOTE: 7th Circuit Panel Eviscerates IND. & WIS. Arguments Against Marriage Equality

Today's Queer Quote comes from Tuesday's oral arguments before the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in marriage equality cases from Wisconsin (Wolf v. Walker) and Indiana (Baskin v. Bogan) where the three judge panel, which included the eminent jurist Richard Posner, completely demolished the states' arguments for their bans on marriage equality.

Posmer is a conservative judge and the intellectual lodestar of a form of jurisprudence that combines economics and conservative legal principles. He does not countenance fools lightly, and he savaged the lawyers making post hoc arguments to defend their states' marriage bans (when everyone knows that it was animus against gender-variant behavior that is at the root of these laws).

These excerpts, provided by Professor Josh Blackman, are today's Queer Quote:

Posner: What concrete factual arguments do you have against homosexual marriage?
Samuelson: Well, we have, uh, the Burkean argument, that it’s reasonable and rational to proceed slowly.
Posner: That’s the tradition argument. It’s feeble! Look, they could have trotted out Edmund Burke in the Loving case. What’s the difference? [Note: Loving v. Virginia was a 1967 decision striking down bans on interracial marriage] . . . There was a tradition of not allowing black and whites, and, actually, other interracial couples from marrying. It was a tradition. It got swept aside. Why is this tradition better?Samuelson: The tradition is based on experience. And it’s the tradition of western culture.
Posner: What experience! It’s based on hate, isn’t it?Samuelson: No, not at all, your honor.
Posner: You don’t think there’s a history of rather savage discrimination against homosexuals?

Ouch! But, wait, there's more!

• “These people and their adopted children are harmed by your law,” Judge Richard Posner said of gay and lesbian couples who are barred from getting married. “The question is what is the offsetting benefit of your law. Who is being helped?”

• Wisconsin Assistant Attorney General Timothy Samuelson responded that society as a whole benefited by preserving marriage as it has long been defined. Posner pressed on, asking if anyone would be harmed if same-sex couples were allowed to be married.

• But Posner expressed skepticism of the idea that the states were trying to promote procreation. “You allow all these sterile couples to get married,” he said. “Why are you doing that if you’re so interested in procreation?”

• Posner, who at times appeared to lecture the attorneys defending the bans, focused on the ability of same-sex couples to adopt children. He noted adopted children would benefit if their parents could claim the tax breaks and other perks of being married.

• “These children would be better off if their parents could marry, no? It’s obvious,” Posner said.

• “Why do you prefer heterosexual adoption to homosexual adoption?” Judge Posner, appointed to the bench by President Reagan, asked. When Fisher began responding that the marriage laws were unrelated to adoption, Posner was almost vitriolic in his response, saying of the state’s treatment of the children of same-sex couples, “You want them to be worse off.”

• At different times, Posner referred to Fisher’s arguments as “pathetic,” “ridiculous,” and “absurd.”

• “How can tradition be the reason?” he asked, mocking the answer by responding that saying “we’ve been doing a stupid thing” for a long time certainly wouldn’t be enough of a justification to uphold a law or practice.

 And this basically encapsulates why so many federal judges are ruling against state bans on marriage equality. There's no benefit to heterosexuals and there is clearly defined harm to same-sex couples (and their children).

Posner is described as the most cited legal theorist of the 20th century. Most observers expect a unanimous ruling from the 7th circuit upholding the lower court's judgments that state bans on marriage equality are unconstitutional under the federal constitution.