Los Angeles Mayoral Election Results

Phew! After the vote-by-mail absentee results were the only news being reported for about 2 1/2 hours after the polls closed (fog in Los Angeles prevented helicopters from flying the ballots to a central counting location--thus delaying the results from being released) I had a vision of the worst case scenario: Hahn versus Hertzberg in the run-off. Fortunately, the later results as well as a Los Angeles Times exit poll indicated that Villaraigosa would place first, with Hahn and Hertzberg duking it out for the second, final run-off spot.

Here is the latest (99% of precincts reporting):

Candidate         Votes   Percentage   Prediction
Villaraigosa      124,561 33.07        31 (-2.07)
James Hahn        89,189  23.68        22 (-1.68)
Bob Hertzberg     83,420  22.15        21 (-1.15)
Bernard Parks     50,341  13.37        14 (+0.63)
Richard Alarcon   13,515  3.59         6  (+2.41)

Note the margin of error between our vote prediction and the actual vote count, others have!
There are still some 24,000 absentee votes to be counted but Hahn was generally doing better than Hertzberg (and Villaraigosa) in those ballots, so I think his margin of 5769 votes will probably hold, and so as predicted yesterday(!), there will be a Hahn vs Villaraigosa rematch (which Villaraigosa will win easily).