Renowned mathematical predictor Nate Silver who did so well at predicting the 2008 election results at fivethirtyeight.com has focused his attention on predicting who will win the Oscars on Sunday:
MadProfessah has also predicted the Oscar results this year, but I only agree with Nate on Best Picture, Best Director and Best Supporting Actor. Nate's choices are perfectly reasonable, and they represent statistical probabilities, but when the state space of possible outcomes is so small I doubt the accuracy of the predictions and would rather go with the insight of insider Oscarologists like Sasha Stone and others.
Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger......................85.8%
Supporting Actress
Taraji P. Henson.................51.0%
Lead Actor
Mickey Rourke...................71.1%
Lead Actress
Kate Winslet.......................67.6%
Best Director
Danny Boyle,
Slumdog Millionaire...........99.7%
Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire..........99.0%
MadProfessah has also predicted the Oscar results this year, but I only agree with Nate on Best Picture, Best Director and Best Supporting Actor. Nate's choices are perfectly reasonable, and they represent statistical probabilities, but when the state space of possible outcomes is so small I doubt the accuracy of the predictions and would rather go with the insight of insider Oscarologists like Sasha Stone and others.
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