GRAPHIC: What Kind Of Voter Are You Depends On How Much Government You Want: Dismantle, Streamline, Rebuild, or Expand?

An interesting analysis of partisanship in a report from the Brooking Institution. They split all voters into four categories: dismantlers, streamliners, rebuilders and expanders. They are each defined thusly:

The report then goes on to analyze how each of the major partisan groups: democrats, republicans and independents are made up of various groupings of these four types (or ideologies) and how this has changed over time. It's worth a read!

Saturday Politics: Race For CA-34 U.S. House Seat (Not Yet) Crowded

Cue the musical chairs! Last week California Governor Jerry Brown announced his intention to appoint U.S. Representative Xavier Becerra to replace U.S. Senator-elect Kamala Harris as California Attorney General. Becerra, 58, is currently my congressman, representing California's 34th congressional district; he would become the first Latino attorney general in the history of the state (in 2016!)

Becerra had been a rumored candidate in the race to replace Barbara Boxer that Kamala Harris ultimately won over another Latino candidate, Loretta Sanchez. Within hours of the announcement that a rare safely Democratic Los Angeles-area Congressional seat was open, former Speaker of the House John Perez announced his candidacy for the race. Soon after that, my state Assemblyman, Jimmie Gomez, also announced his intention to run for the seat. Activist Wendy Carillo has also declared she is interested. Surprisingly, my City Council person Jose Huizar has so far declined to enter the race to replace Becerra, as has fellow Councilperson Gil Cedillo. For the special election, you just need to be a resident of California (and a U.S. Citizen and over age 25).

Today comes the surprising news that Perez is withdrawing from the race, citing an unnamed health condition which is serious enough that it will prevent him from running a rigorous race in the 2017 special election, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Citing a recent diagnosis of a serious health problem, former California Assembly Speaker John A. Pérez said Saturday he is dropping out of the race to replace U.S. Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles).
"I've got to focus on my health right now," Pérez said in an interview. "But it was a very hard decision."
The 47-year-old Democrat declined to offer specifics about his condition, citing a desire to keep it private. But he said it was serious enough that it would keep him from waging a vigorous political campaign in 2017.
"The treatment is one that doesn’t lend itself to the intensity of a campaign that the community deserves," he said.

Almost certainly there will be other prominent (and not so prominent) Los Angeles area politicos joining the race. MadProfessah will keep you posted, since it is literally happening in my back yard!

Good Riddance! LGBT-Hating NC-Gov Concedes Defeat

Nearly four weeks after the election, North Carolina Governor Pat McRory has (finally!) conceded defeat in the last unresolved gubernatorial election of 2016. The Republican trailed Democrat North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper by just over 10,000 votes (out of nearly 4.5 million cast), which is just enough to forestall an automatic recount. McRory had claimed massive voter fraud and had initiated a recount in heavily Democratic Durham County but when few votes turned up he gave up on Monday. Republicans found the result in the Governor's race hard to swallow because Donald Trump won the state's 15 electoral votes by nearly 4 percentage points and U.S. Senator Richard Burr also won re-election. But McRory earned widespread notoriety and opprobrium for championing a controversial bill called HB-2 which overturned an LGBT civil rights ordinance in Charlotte, NC and explicitly permitted discrimination against LGBT individuals in the state.

Gee, maybe the difference between the electoral fortunes of Trump, Burr and McRory in North Carolina was a repudiation of explicit hostility to civil rights?

Notoriously Homophobic Leader of The Gambia Defeated In Election

The surprising election results in 2016 keep coming. This week the little-known country of The Gambia, where Yahya Jammeh, the leader of the country for the last 22  years was defeated in an election. Jammeh is a virulent homophobe, notorious for his statements about LGBT people, especially gay men.

Joe Jervis blogs:

In November 2014, Jammeh made homosexuality punishable by life in prison. The following month the US dropped Gambia from an African free trade agreement in part over Jammeh’s anti-LGBT crackdown. Several months later Jammeh issued a public promise to “slit the throats” of all homosexuals, prompting a denouncement from UN national security advisor Susan Rice. It’s unknown if life for Gambia’s LGBT community will improve under the new president.

The winner of the election, John Barrow, is the president-elect  and is required  by the Gambian constitution to be sworn in within 60 days of the election, according to the Washington Blade. Hopefully life for all Gambians, and particularly LGBT individuals will improve once that happens.

4 Days After #ElectionDay: Clinton 228, Trump 290. MI(16),NH(4) Uncalled!

It is now 4 days after Election Day and the full results in the presidential election are still not known. Donald Trump is the president-elect of the United States because he has won more vote in enough states to claim more than 270 electoral votes. However, Hillary Clinton now leads by over  600,000 votes in the popular vote total; this is expected to swell to over 1 million by the time California certifies its results in December. Currently, they have only tabulated roughly 9 million votes in a state where 12 million people votes in 2012 and Clinton leads 2-to-1.

Since I blogged last on Wednesday, Arizona (11 electoral votes) was called definitively for Trump on Friday even though he won there relatively handily 49-44 in what used to be thought of as a non-swing state. In Michigan, Trump leads by roughly 13,000 votes out of 4.7 million votes cast. In New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) Clinton, is ahead by a narrow total of 2528 votes out of 700,000 cast. The U.S. Senate race in New Hampshire (which, at an estimated total of $100 million spent, was the most expensive of the year) was decided in Governor Maggie Hassan's favor over incumbent Kelly Ayotte by a mere 743 votes! Ayotte has surprisingly conceded the race without requesting a recount.

Stay tuned!

2016 ELECTION: Trump 279, Clinton 228. AZ(11),MI(16),NH(4) Uncalled

Donald Trump was elected 45th President of the United States  last night this morning when Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were called for the GOP candidate, eliminating Hillary Clinton's path to 270 electoral votes, as Trump surpassed that threshold.. Like in 2000, the Democratic candidate will win the popular vote, but lose in the electoral college. The 27 electoral votes of Arizona (11) and Michigan (16), New Hampshire (4) are still close to call but Trump is leading there. He also won a rare electoral college vote in the North East by wining Maine's 2nd congressional district.

SCRUFF Poll Of #GBTQ Men: 79% Clinton, 11% Trump

Somehow I was contacted by the good guys at Scruff (one of those location-based mobile phone apps that gay men use to connect with each other) to present some "Scrufftistics" about a non-scientific poll they conducted from October 28-31, 2016 about the 2016 election with nearly 13,000 respondents. It shows that among "GBTQ" (gay, bisexual, transgender and queer) men that 79% would vote for Hillary Clinton while only 11% would vote for Donald Trump. It should be interesting to see what exit polls of the electorate say about the LGBTQ vote and how (and whether) there will be a difference between these polls (I expect there will be).

There's a now-famous map from 538.com starkly depicting the gender gap between the 2016 presidential candidates. If only men voted the electoral map would look like this:

However, the Scruff data shows that if only gay men voted the map would look like this:

Although the Scruff data also indicates that in 5 states Trump would get more than 20% of the GBTQ vote Louisiana (28.32%), Wyoming (27.78%), North Dakota (23.08%), Alabama (20.48%)
and Delaware (20%).

Again, note that this is a non-scientific poll. There's no guarantee the respondents actually have any correlation with the broader population of GBTQ men in the United States (for example, 95% of respondents said they were registered to vote). Scruff asked age information (over 55% were between 35-54), income information (over 30% claimed over $100k annual salary) and religious affiliation (over 50% said they were not religious) but did not ask about race/ethnicity, which in my opinion was a lost opportunity.

Overall, I found the scruff survey contained an interesting snapshot of the LGBTQ community. I hope to see more information like this in the future.

Today is #ElectionDay! Clinton 0.716, Trump 0.284

Today is (finally!) election day in America. The final 538.com election prediction has a 71.6% chance of winning for Clinton-Kaine and a 28.4% chance of winning for Trump-Pence. This is slightly up from previous days in the last week, when 3 days ago Trump's chances of becoming president were just above 35%. All will be revealed tonight!

3 Days Until #ElectionDay : Clinton 0.647, Trump 0.352

4 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.684, Trump 0.315

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com

1 Week Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.738, Trump 0.262

The 2016 presidential election is just one week (7 days!) away. The 538.com forecast shows a significant movement towards the Trump-Pence ticket from last week's numbers. Right now, Clinton-Kaine has a 73.8% chance of winning the presidency, while Trump-Pence is 26.2% (which is up from last week's 13.8%).

QUEER QUOTE: Nation's Largest LGBT Group Rescinds Kirk Endorsement Over Racist Remark

Well, well! The Human Rights Campaign, the nation's largest LGBT political advocacy organization, has rescinded its endorsement of incumbent U.S. Senator Mark Kirk (R-Illinois)  over a shocking racist remark Kirk made in a debate with his opponent U.S. Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth last week.

An excerpt from the open letter HRC head Chad Griffin released explaining the organization's action is today's Queer Quote:

“After careful consideration, HRC’s Public Policy Committee of the Board of Directors has taken the unprecedented step -- a first in our 36-year history -- of revoking an endorsement. We are a bipartisan organization and our staff and board make endorsement decisions based on a proven record of LGBTQ equality and a candidate’s ability to drive legislative change. We will not continue to make progress and pass the Equality Act without Republican support. It’s vitally important that we continue to build bipartisan coalitions so that we may continue to move equality forward. We endorsed the sitting senator, Mark Kirk, because he has been a strong supporter of our cause time and again, scoring a 100 percent on HRC’s most recent Congressional Scorecard. But events this week have gone beyond the pale for our standards of leadership.

“Leadership is about more than the legislation one sponsors and the votes one casts. On Thursday night, Senator Kirk's comments about his opponent's heritage were deeply offensive and racist. His attempt to use Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth’s race as a means to undermine her family’s American heritage and patriotism is beyond reprehensible. Yesterday, Senator Kirk tweeted an apology that failed to adequately address the real harm and magnitude of his words. So today, following a vote by our board’s committee, the Human Rights Campaign withdrew our support of Senator Kirk.

“Attacking someone because of her race and ethnicity is inexcusable for anyone, but especially for a sitting U.S. Senator. The diversity of our movement is our greatest strength, and Senator Kirk’s remarks were an affront to our most fundamental values. We have therefore voted to endorse Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth, who has been a strong LGBTQ ally in the House of Representatives, and HRC has contributed the maximum amount to her campaign. We look forward to working with her in the Senate to secure full federal equality for all LGBTQ Americans."

I have refused to donate money to HRC ever since they endorsed the odious Alfonse D'Amato over Charles Schumer in the 1998 U.S. Senate race from New York. The fact that they finally did the right thing by rescinding the endorsement when their chosen candidate made an explicitly racist remark is a sign that things may be changing at HRC.

2 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.861, Trump 0.138

There are only 2 weeks left (14 days!) before the 2016 Presidential Election will be determined on November 8. This week, the 538.com forecast has Clinton-Kaine ticket has an 86.1% chance of winning, with Trump-Pence having a 13.8% chance of winning. This is slightly changed from last week's probabilities (88.2% Clinton-Trump, 11.8% Trump-Pence).

GODLESS WEDNESDAY: Mormons Trying To Influence Ballot Measures in Western States (AZ,CO,CA,NV)

The Mormon Church notoriously (and somewhat disastrously) got involved with a California ballot measure in 2008 called Proposition 8 that purported to amend the United States California Constitution to ban same-sex marriage that was eventually struck down in a 5-4 U.S. Supreme Court decision on June 26, 2013. has decided that it didn't learn its lesson 8 years ago and is getting involved in opposing a series of ballot measures involving social issues in various West Coast states.

The Deseret News reports:

The LDS Church's First Presidency is asking the faith's members in four western states to oppose bills that would legalize doctor-assisted suicide and recreational marijuana use.
Church President Thomas S. Monson and his counselors sent a letter Wednesday to Mormons in Colorado, where Proposition 106 would legalize physician-assisted suicide. 

"We urge church members to let their voices be heard in opposition to measures that would legalize physician-assisted suicide," said the letter signed by President Monson, President Henry B. Eyring and President Dieter F. Uchtdorf, who make up the First Presidency of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. 

They sent a similar letter Wednesday to Mormons in Arizona, California and Nevada about marijuana legislation.
"We urge church members to let their voices be heard in opposition to the legalization of recreational marijuana use," the letter said.

The Mormon Church does not get involved in political issues very often (which is one reason their involvement in the Proposition 8 fight over same-sex marriage was so striking) so it is noteworthy that they are urging their adherents in California, Colorado, Arizona and Nevada to follow the Church's leadership instead of voting their conscience in these particular matters. It's also interesting that the LDS Church did not weigh in on Proposition 62 (abolish death penalty) and Proposition 66 (maintain death penalty) in California.

3 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.882, Trump 0.118

The probabilities in the 2016 presidential race have moved sharply in favor of the Clinton-Kaine ticket in the last week. With just 21 days (3 weeks) before election day, the latest numbers from FiveThirtyEight.com show a 0.882 probability America will elect its first female president, with just a 0.112 chance Donald Trump will win his first elected office on November 8th. Last week, the probabilities were 0.84 Clinton, 0.16 Trump. Since i began blogging about the data, the probabilities have been as close as Clinton 0.546, Trump 0.454 just 3 weeks ago so the numbers can change rather rapidly. 

Will they change again? We'll know more in 21 days!

4 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.84, Trump 0.16

Election Day is now exactly 4 weeks (28 days!) away. FiveThirtyEight's election prediction model says that Hillary Clinton has a probability of  0.84 of becoming president, while Donald J. Trump has a 0.16 probability of winning the 2016 presidential election. This is a significant change from last week, when their relative chances were 0.718 for Clinton-Kaine and 0.282 for Trump-Pence.

5 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.718, Trump 0.282

There are now 5 weeks (35 days) until November 8, 2016, election day. The FiveThirtyEight election forecast  now says the probability that Hillary Clinton will be elected president is now 0.718 (Donald Trump's chance of winning is now 0.282). This is a dramatic jump from last week, where the probability was 0.546 Clinton, 0.454 Trump. That shows the volatility in the prediction, although it must of course be noted that in between now and then, the most watched presidential debate in historym occurred, with more than 84 million people viewing the debate on Monday September 26.

The Vice-Presidential debate is tomorrow night. Can it possibly have as large an effect on the probabilities? The second Presidential debate is next Sunday, October 9th.

6 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.546, Trump 0.454

I've been busy all day so I didn't get to post the latest prediction by FiveThirtyEight.com about the candidates' relative chances to be president with 42 days remaining (6 weeks) before election day. Hillary Clinton has a probability of 0.546 while Donald Trump has a probability  of 0.454. Last week, Clinton had a probability of 0.589 while Trump had a probability of 0.411.

7 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.589, Trump 0.411

There are 7 weeks (49 days) until election day, November 8 2016. FiveThirtyEight.com's forecasting model of the 2016 presidential election gives Hillary Clinton approximately a 59% chance of winning, compared to Donald Trump's 41%. Last week, these numbers were 0.682 (Clinton) and 0.318 (Trump).

8 Weeks Until Election Day: Clinton 0.682, Trump 0.318

It's that time again! 56 days from today (8 weeks) we will learn who will be the 45th President of the United Status as Americans in every state go to the polls on November 8. My current employment status as a federal employee does not allow me to comment publicly on partisan races but it doesn't preclude me from sharing information. I did this last time in the Obama-Romney election as well, but I started much earlier and used the Talking Points Memo Electoral College Scoreboard.

Periodically for the next eight weeks I will post election forecasts, probably from Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com. Instead of posting estimated electoral vote tallies, Five Thirty Eight comes up with a probability (i.e. a number between 0 and 1) of who will win the presidential race if it were held right now. That is the information I will post regularly here. Enjoy the next 8 weeks!