SATURDAY POLITICS: #AD51 California Assembly District Race Heats Up!

I am a homeowner and voter in Northeast Los Angeles and thus the last year has involved participating in numerous elections (five lat last count). Due to the 2016 election which resulted in then-Attorney General Kamala Harris going to the U.S. Senate, my congressperson Xavier Becerra was appointed to replace her and then my Assemblyperson Jimmy Gomez won a special election to replace Becerra in the 34th Congressional District. Now we are just a few weeks away from the Tuesday December 5th election to replace Gomez in the Assembly.

The two candidates for the 51st Assembly district are Luis Lopez and Wendy Carrillo. Lopez has run for this seat before (losing to Gomez in 2012) and lived in the District for decades while Carrillo moved into the district when she ran unsuccessfully in the #CA34 special election.

Interestingly, despite the carpet-bagger concerns Carrillo has been endorsed by several Democratic Party establishment figures, including now-U.S. Rep. Gomez, California Senate Majority leader Kevin De Leon (who represents the area in the California Senate) and Jose Huizar who represents sections of the assembly district in the Los Angeles City Council.

As an openly gay man running for a state legislative seat, Lopez has been endorsed by several LGBT organizations (Equality California, HONOR Pac, the Victory Fund and the California LGBT Legislative Caucus).

Lopez and Carillo have faced off in multiple debates around the district. There doesn't appear to be any public polling in the race. I have already voted for my preferred candidate by mail. The election is Tuesday December 5th.

SATURDAY POLITICS: #AD51 Runoff On 12/05/17 With Wendy Carrillo and Luis Lopez

The special election to replace now-Congressman Jimmy Gomez in the 51st Assembly District happened this Tuesday October 3 and the top 2 finishers were Wendy Carrillo (who had also run against Gomez in the special election in the 34th Congressional District) and Luis López. Carrillo received the most votes (4,771) in a crowded field of 13 candidates while López was second with 4,086 and Mike Fong was close behind with 3,515.

However, only the top 2 finishers advance to a run-off election to be held on Tuesday December 5. López has run for this seat before, way back in 2012 (against Gomez), while Carrillo is something of a perennial candidate in Northeast Los Angeles elections. López is openly gay and is a healthcare executive and was endorsed by various progressive democratic clubs (East Area Progressive Democrats and Stonewall Democrats) while Carrillo used to work for a local affiliate of Service Employees International Union, which ran an independent expenditure campaign that spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to support her.

This is my home district (and I voted) so I am following the race quite closely. It will be interesting to see who (if anyone) Gomez endorses as well as what the other candidates in the race do.

Hat/tip to Los Angeles Times.

SATURDAY POLITICS: Presidential First-Quarter Approval Rating Comparisons; #CA34 Runoff Between Gomez and Ahn; Gorsuch's 1st Killer Vote

TRUMP'S FIRST-QUARTER APPROVAL RATINGS ARE HISTORICALLY LOW COMPARED TO OTHER FIRST-TERM PRESIDENTS
The Huffington Post reports that Donald Trump is the first post-World War president to have less than majority support from the American populace after the first quarter of his first term.

President Donald Trump received substantially worse ratings for his initial months in office than any other president elected to his first term since World War II, according to Gallup.

Even those presidents who went on to be unpopular generally enjoyed high ratings during their first months in office after their electoral victory. But Trump’s average rating since Inauguration Day is just 41 percent, Gallup finds, making him the only such president in its polling history to fall short of majority approval during his first quarter.

President Bill Clinton, the next-lowest ranked, had an average approval rating of 55 percent for that time period, while Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush enjoyed first-quarter ratings of 63 percent and 58 percent, respectively. 

It should be noted that Trump's approval rating among Republicans (as depicted in the graphic at the top of this post) is 87%, which is well aligned with the political support other presidents have received from people in their same party.

#CA34 JUNE 6 RUN-OFF ELECTION SET BETWEEN JIMMY GOMEZ AND ROBERT LEE AHN
Previously I analyzed the race to replace Xavier Becerra as the United States representative for the 34th Congressional District of California. I also voted in the April 4 election by absentee ballot. The top two finishers were Assemblymember Jimmy Gomez and former Los Angeles City Planning Commissioner Robert Lee Ahn. One of these two will be elected as a Congressmember on June 6, 2017. Ahn, 41, raised the most money but Gomez, 42, received the most votes.

JUSTICE NEIL GORSUCH JOINED THE SUPREME COURT AND HIS FIRST VOTE ALLOWS ARKANSAS TO KILL
Neil Gorsuch is now the newest member of the United States Supreme Court. His very first vote was on Monday night, in the case of McGehee v. Hutchinson, which was in a death penalty case out of Arkansas. In a 5-4 decision, Gorsuch's was the deciding vote which led to the execution of Ledell Lee. This was the first execution in the state of Arkansas in a dozen years. The state had intended to execute 8 men in 11 days but that plan is in doubt now, but they have "successfully" killed at least one man.

SATURDAY POLITICS: Analyzing the #CA34 Special Election for Becerra's Replacement

Jimmy Gomez is my representative in the California Assembly (51st District). Xavier Becerra used to be my representative in the United States Congress (until he became Attorney General of California). I live in the 34th Congressional District of California, so now this is a rare open congressional seat.

The race to replace Becerra has become as crowded as I expected. This is what the actual ballot looks like for the April 4, 2017 special election:

The Top 2 vote getters (as long as no one gets a majority of votes) will face off June 6, 2017. The Los Angeles Times editorial board has endorsed Maria Cabildo but the dozens of mailers I have piling up around the house show that Gomez has garnered the most impressive endorsements:  the Los Angeles County Democratic Party, Xavier Becerra, U.S. Senator Kamala Harris and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti. However, the person who has raised the most money is Robert Lee Ahn, the only Korean American in a race for a congressional seat which contains Koreatown.

I have already voted (by absentee ballot) but watch this space for the official results in just about 11 days from now!

Saturday Politics: Race For CA-34 U.S. House Seat (Not Yet) Crowded

Cue the musical chairs! Last week California Governor Jerry Brown announced his intention to appoint U.S. Representative Xavier Becerra to replace U.S. Senator-elect Kamala Harris as California Attorney General. Becerra, 58, is currently my congressman, representing California's 34th congressional district; he would become the first Latino attorney general in the history of the state (in 2016!)

Becerra had been a rumored candidate in the race to replace Barbara Boxer that Kamala Harris ultimately won over another Latino candidate, Loretta Sanchez. Within hours of the announcement that a rare safely Democratic Los Angeles-area Congressional seat was open, former Speaker of the House John Perez announced his candidacy for the race. Soon after that, my state Assemblyman, Jimmie Gomez, also announced his intention to run for the seat. Activist Wendy Carillo has also declared she is interested. Surprisingly, my City Council person Jose Huizar has so far declined to enter the race to replace Becerra, as has fellow Councilperson Gil Cedillo. For the special election, you just need to be a resident of California (and a U.S. Citizen and over age 25).

Today comes the surprising news that Perez is withdrawing from the race, citing an unnamed health condition which is serious enough that it will prevent him from running a rigorous race in the 2017 special election, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Citing a recent diagnosis of a serious health problem, former California Assembly Speaker John A. Pérez said Saturday he is dropping out of the race to replace U.S. Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles).
"I've got to focus on my health right now," Pérez said in an interview. "But it was a very hard decision."
The 47-year-old Democrat declined to offer specifics about his condition, citing a desire to keep it private. But he said it was serious enough that it would keep him from waging a vigorous political campaign in 2017.
"The treatment is one that doesn’t lend itself to the intensity of a campaign that the community deserves," he said.

Almost certainly there will be other prominent (and not so prominent) Los Angeles area politicos joining the race. MadProfessah will keep you posted, since it is literally happening in my back yard!