2021 OSCARS: My Predictions in the Top 8 Categories

Here is my annual prediction post for the 2021 Oscars, i.e. the 93nd Academy Awards. I really just consider the Top 8 categories on the blog but I often play the Oscar prediction game like lots of other people (on other websites) where I think about all 24 categories.  In 2019 I predicted 4 of 8 categories correctly and in 2020 I predicted 6 of 8 correctly.  This year I have seen all of the Best Picture nominees.

Best Picture:

• “The Father” 
• “Judas and the Black Messiah”
  
• "Mank"
• “Minari” 
• “Nomadland” 
• “Promising Young Woman” 
• “Sound of Metal” 
• “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
  

SHOULD WIN: Minari.
WILL WIN: Nomadland.

Director:

• Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”)
• David Fincher (“Mank”)
• Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”)
• Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”)
  
• Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”)

SHOULD WIN: David Fincher, Mank.

WILL WIN: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland.

Lead Actor:

• Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”)
• Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey's Black Bottom”)
• Anthony Hopkins (“The Father")
• Gary Oldman (“Mank”)
• Steven Yeun  (“Minari”)

SHOULD WIN: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal.

WILL WIN: Chadwick  Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

Lead Actress:

• Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey's Black Bottom”)
• Andra Day (“The United States v. Billie Holiday”)
• Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”)
• Frances McDormand  (“Nomadland”)
• Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”)
  

SHOULD WIN: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

WILL WIN: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman.

Supporting Actor:

• Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)
• Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
• Leslie Odom Jr. (“One Night in Miami”)
• Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”)
• Lakeith Stanfield  (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)

SHOULD WIN: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah.

WILL WIN: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah.

Supporting Actress:

• Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”)
• Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”)
• Olivia Colman (“The Father”)
• Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”)
• Yuh-jung Youn (“Minari”)

SHOULD WIN: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy.

WILL WIN: Yuh-jung Youn, Minari.

Original Screenplay:

• Will Berson and Shaka King (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
• Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”)
• Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”)
• Darius Marder and Abraham Marder (“Sound of Metal”)
• Aaron Sorkin (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)
  

SHOULD WIN: Minari.

WILL WIN: Promising Young Woman.

Adapted Screenplay:

• Sacha Baron Cohen et alia (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”)
• Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller (“The Father”)
• Chloe Zhao (“Nomadland”)
• Kemp Powers (“One Night in Miami”)
• Ramin Bahrani (“The White Tiger”)
  

SHOULD WIN: The Father.

WILL WIN: Nomadland.

2017 EMMYS: My Predictions in Major Categories

The Primetime Emmy awards will be given out tonight in Los Angeles. The show will be aired live on CBS at 5pm PDT/8pm EDT. This is the post where I discuss my predictions in the most prestigious categories. The one that I would vote for is in blue and the one I think will win is in red.

Outstanding drama series

• “The Crown” (Netflix)
• “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
• “Westworld” (HBO)
• “Stranger Things” (Netflix)
• “This Is Us” (NBC)
• “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
• “House of Cards” (Netflix)

This is the first season of Westworld, The Crown, This Is Us, Stranger Things and The Handmaid's Tale.  I have watched all of these shows but I am a season behind  Better Call Saul and House of Cards. To me, the show that had the most impact on my emotionally was The Handmaid's Tale, despite the fact that it is almost impossible to get through an episode of This Is Us without weeping. The most creative of the shows on this list is Stranger Things while The Crown is the guiltiest pleasure. The show I am most looking forward to seeing the next season of is Westworld. What I'm trying to say is that basically every show on this list has a good reason to win.

SHOULD WIN: The Handmaid's Tale.
WILL WIN: This Is Us.

Outstanding lead actor in a drama series

• Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us” (NBC)
• Matthew Rhys, “The Americans” (FX)
• Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards” (Netflix)
• Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan” (Showtime)
• Anthony Hopkins, “Westworld” (HBO)
• Milo Ventimiglia, “This Is Us” (NBC)
• Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul” (AMC)

Milo Ventimiglia has garnered most of the attention of the actors on This Is Us but Sterling Brown is the character that I most identify with (he plays a nerdy Black guy adopted by white parents whose primary story arc on the show involves his connection with his birth father.

SHOULD WIN: Sterling K. Brown.
WILL WIN: Sterling K. Brown.

Outstanding lead actress in a drama series

• Claire Foy, “The Crown” (Netflix)
• Keri Russell, “The Americans” (FX)
• Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
• Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder” (ABC)
• Robin Wright, “House of Cards” (Netflix)
• Evan Rachel Wood, “Westworld” (HBO)

Last year, Tatiana Masliany won for her amazing portrayal of multiple clones on Orphan Black. This year Claire Foy has been getting plaudits for playing Queen Elizabeth. Oscar winner Viola Davis won this category 2 years ago.  Robin Wright has been nominated for every season of House of Cards and has never won.

SHOULD WIN: Elisabeth Moss.
WILL WIN: Viola Davis.

Outstanding comedy series

• “Black-ish” (ABC)
• “Atlanta” (FX)
• “Veep” (HBO)
• “Master of None” (Netflix)
• “Silicon Valley” (HBO)
• “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” (Netflix)
• “Modern Family” (ABC)

The nominees in this category are Atlanta and Master of None, two comedies helmed by two comedians of color, Donald Glover and Aziz Ansari. I have never seen an episode of Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt but I know that Tina Fey is an executive producer and people rave about it. I have seen Veep, Silicon Valley, Black-ish and Modern Family but have not seen all of the latest season of each of these shows. Veep ended the dominance of Modern Family last year and  is expected to do so again. I have been watching episodes of Black-ish on flights and have gained grudging respect for the show.

SHOULD WIN: Black-ish.

WILL WIN: Veep.

Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series  

• Donald Glover, “Atlanta” (FX)
• Anthony Anderson, “Blackish” (ABC)
• Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent” (Amazon)
• Aziz Ansari, “Master of None” (Netflix)
• William H. Macy, “Shameless” (Showtime)
• Zach Galifianakis, “Baskets” (FX)

SHOULD WIN: Donald Glover.

WILL WIN: Jeffrey Tambor.

Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series

• Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep” (HBO)
• Tracee Ellis Ross, “Black-ish” (ABC)
• Lily Tomlin, “Grace and Frankie” (Netflix)
• Jane Fonda, “Grace and Frankie” (Netflix)
• Ellie Kemper, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” (Netflix)
• Allison Janney, “Mom” (CBS)
• Pamela Adlon, “Better Things” (FX)

SHOULD WIN: Tracee Ellis Ross.

WILL WIN: Julia Louis-Dreyfus.

Outstanding limited series

• “The Night Of” (HBO)
• “Big Little Lies” (HBO)
• “Fargo” (FX)
• “Feud: Bette and Joan” (FX)
• “Genius” (National Geographic)

I quite enjoyed watching The Night Of  last fall and Riz Ahmed and John Turturro were riveting. But Big Little Lies was quite compelling and fascinating to watch Oscar-calibre performances from Nicole Kidman, Reese Witherspoon, Laura Dern and Shailene Woodley. Fargo's 3rd season was well below the extremely high level set by the first two seasons.

SHOULD WIN: The Night Of.

WILL WIN: Big Little Lies.