2018 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [4] vs. Dominic Thiem (AUT) [7].

Here are my predictions for the men's final at the 2018 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted Rafael Nadal would defeat Stan Wawrinka in the 2017 final. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men's seminfinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

MEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [1] d. Juan Martin del Potro (ARG) [5] 6-4 6-1 6-2.  Surprisingly, this match was less competitive than the match Nadal played against a different Argentine, the diminutive Diego Schwartzman, in the previous round. Del Potro apparently suffered a hip injury midway through the first set and the ruthless Spaniard took advantage of the diminished mobility to punish and pummel Del Potro into submission.


Dominic Thiem (AUT) [7] d. Marco Cecchinato (ITA) 7-5 7-6(10) 6-1. nThis was a surprisingly competitive match between the #8 player in the world and someone barely into the Top 100. That is a strong statement in support of the play of the Italian, who had an almost magical run here in Paris which was just barely stopped before he could reach the final, but not before he has won several hundred thousamd Euros as an unseeded 2018 Roland Garros finalist.

MEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

Thiem is the only player to have won 2 sets on clay against Nadal in the same match in the last three years. He did it twice (2018 Madrid quarterfinals and 2017 Rome quarterfinal) and is clearly the second best clay court player in the world. However, the distance between the best player and the second best is huge, as Nadal has demonstrated time and time again. Nadal joins his nemesis/frenemy Roger Federer in the record books as the second man to play in 11 major finals on the same surface. (Federer has done it at Wimbledon, of course and is 8-3 with 1 loss to Nadal in 2008 and 2 losses to Novak Djkokovic in 2015 and 2016). Nadal is 11-0 in finals (and semifinals!) at Roland Garros and has only ever lost two matches there: 4th round to Robin Soderling in 2009 and in the quarterfinal of 2015.) It's hard to imagine  a more prohibitive favorite than Nadal. Amazingly, it would mean that for the second year n a row Federer and Nadal would have split the first two majors of the year between them.

MadProfessah's pick: Nadal.

TENNIS TUESDAY: Stephens, Isner Win Big Titles In Miami; Rafa Returns To #1; Federer Skips Clay (Again); Nole-Agassi Split;

 SLOANE STEPHENS WINS MIAMI OPEN OVER JELENA OSTAPENKO
2017 U.S. Open champ Sloane Stephens beat 2017 French Open champ Jelena Ostapenko 7-6(5) 6-1 to win the second biggest title of her career. Interestingly, this result improves to 5-0 in career finals, which is a very strong indication of the 25-year-old's mental toughness. The win also catapults her up to a career-high ranking; she is at World #9 this week.

JOHN ISNER WINS HIS FIRST ATP MASTERS 1000 TITLE IN MIAMI OVER SASCHA ZVEREV
John Isner played some of the best tennis of his career in Miami to reach his 4th ATP Masters 1000 final. He defeated Juan Martin Del Potro in the semifinal 6-1 7-6(2), snapping the Argentine's 15-match winning streak. His serve was never broken in either match and in fact, by the time he beat Sascha Zverev in the final, Isner had not had his service broken in 46 consecutive service games. Like Stephens, this win catapults Isner to a career-high ranking of #9. Isner now has the best results of any player over the last 12 months: 2018 Miami title, 2017 Rome semifinal, 2017 Paris semifinal and 2017 Cincinnati semifinal.

RAFA RETURNS TO #1 JUST AS CLAY SEASON BEGINS
Thanks to Roger Federer's shock 3-set loss to Thanasi Kokkinakis in the 2nd round of the Miami Open, Rafael Nadal is the new #1 player on the ATP Tour.

FEDERER CONFIRMS HE WILL SKIP ENTIRE CLAY SEASON (AGAIN)
Like he did in 2017, 20-time major champion Roger Federer has decided to skip the 2018 clay court season, including the French Open, resting his 37-year-old body in order to maximize his chances of winning another major championship, either in London or New York City.

DJOKOVIC AND AGASSI ANNOUNCE END TO COACHING RELATIONSHIP
After he lost early at Indian Wells (to Taro Daniels) and Miami (to Benoit Paire) tongues have been wagging about what is ailing 12-time major champion Novak Djokovic as he attempts to regain his position at the top of men's tennis. The news that the coach-player relationship with Andre Agassi has come to an end will definitely not stop the whispers. However, I for one think Djokovic still has a good chance of winning more majors in the future.

2018 MIAMI OPEN: Ostapenko-Stephens and Zverev-Isner Finals Predictions

The second big (non-major) event of the year is coming to and end: the Miami open. Last year Roger Federer and Johanna Konta won the tournaments. This year we will have new champions as both of these players lost relatively early, Federer to a resurgent Thanasi Kokkinakis and Konta fell to Venus Williams.

WOMEN'S FINAL

This year the women's final is between two reigning major champions : 2017 French Open champion Jelena Ostapenko and 2017 US Open champ Sloane Stephens, in their first ever meeting on tour. Stephens s playing her best tennis since winning her first major title and will reach the Top 10 for the first time after beating 3-time Miami Open champion Victoria Azarenka in the semifinals. Ostapenko has backed up her shock win of her first major at the age of 20 with play that has kept her in the Top 10 even if she doesn't defend her title in Paris. Stephens has shown that her defense can outlast big hitters and she's not afraid of going for the lines herself when it matters.

MadProfessah's prediction: Stephens.

MEN'S FINAL

On the men's side, Juan Martin del Potro has been by far the hottest player on the ATP tour. He beat defending champion Roger Federer in the Indian Wells final (in a 3rd set tiebreak after saving 3 match points!) and there was talk that he might achieve a rare "Sunshine Double" by winning Miami. But, amazingly, his 15-match winning streak was stopped by none other than John Isner. Isner basically beat del Potro by serving incredibly (which is typical) but he also was aggressive from the back of the court. Isner beat 2018 Australian Open finalist Marin Cilic a few rounds before as well as 2018 Australian Open semifinalist Hyeong Chung on his way to the final. Sascha Zverev finally got past his Next Gen peers Borna Coric in the quarterfinals, Nick Kyrgios in R16 and Daniil Medvedev in the 2nd round. But what probably sparked this good run was his ability to surve a grinding tussle with David Ferrer in the 3rd round. Zverev has already won 2(!) ATP Master and is not yet 21 (in contrast Del Potro won his first ATP Masters shield in Indian Wells this year). Isner has actually done quite well in the Masters, having reached 4 finals at 4 different events. I think this is a very close match (last year the two played in Miami and Zverev won 2 of 3 tie-break sets) and generally in a pick 'em situation I go with the better athlete/mover, which in this case is the 6-foot-6 20-year-old ad not the 6-foot-9 30-year-old.

MadProfessah's prediction: Zverev.

TENNIS TUESDAY: Federer Has 1st 2018 Loss; Delpo Wins 1st Masters; Osaka Wins 1st Title, Will Face Serena 1R in Miami

OSAKA WINS NEXT GEN BATTLE WITH KASATKINA FOR INDIAN WELLS CROWN
Defying my prediction to the contrary, Naomi Osaka of Japan defeated Daria Kasatkina 6-3 6-2 to win her first WTA tour title on the big stage of the BNP Paribas Open. Both players had impressive runs to reach with final, with Osaka taking out World #1 Simona Halep, former World #1 Karolina Pliskova and 5-time major champion Maria Sharapova (in round 1!). Kasatkina took out 4 major champions in a row Venus Williams, Angelique Kerber, 2018 Aussie Open champ Caroline Wozniacki and 2017 US Open champ Sloane Stephens!

JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO WINS 1st ATP MASTER TITLE OVER FEDERER
In one of the best matches of the year, Juan Martin del Potro of Argentina demonstrated his fearlessness against Roger Federer by outlasting him 6-4 6-7(8) 7-6(2). This was the 25th match the two have played and is Delpo's 7th win, which have often come in the finals of tournaments (Delpo leads 4-2). Delpo saved an amazing 3 match points (and Federer saved 2 himself) to beat the World #1 and win his first Masters series title after playing in 4 finals (interesting he lost these finals to the other members of the big 4: Nadal, Murray and Djokovic). At 7, Delpo has more wins against World #1 players than any other player who has not become World #1 themself.

OSAKA WILL FACE SERENA WILLIAMS IN FIRST ROUND OF MIAMI OPEN
Osaka's prize for winning Indian Wells? In addition to doubling her career prize money with a $1.3 million check she was drawn to face 8-time Miami Open champion Serena Williams in the first round. Serena lost to sister Venus last week, will she now lose to Osaka this week? I think she might, but my prediction mojo has been weak recently. If she does lose, I do think it will provide excellent motivation for Serena to double her efforts to reach top shape sooner rather than later.

FEDERER LOSES 1ST MATCH OF 2018 (DESPITE HAVING MATCH POINTS)
After eking out a win against Borna Coric to reach his 17th win of 2018, Federer was not able to do so against Juan Martin del Potro despite actually playing better and having more chances to win in the final. He lost a 3rd set tiebreaker and is now a dismal 1-7 in championship-deciding tiebreaks for his career. His 5th set record is not great either. The reason for this (many believe) is that even though Federer is the greatest player of all time, he so rarely is put in positions where he has to REALLY fight in high stakes situations that he has less experience and is less suited to performing his best when it happens. Still, a 17-1 record to start 2018 must be something Federer is happy with; at age 36 he is tied with most wins on tour this year. Interestingly, Juan Martin del Potro is 17-3 for 2018 and Dominc Thiem is 17-4.

ATP RANKINGS MOVERS: DEL POTRO, ANDERSON, POUILLEFederer remains #1 despite not defending his title at Indian Wells and will need to defend his title in Miami if he is to keep the #1 ranking for the entire clay court season. Del Potro is now at World #6, Kevin Anderson is pu to World #8 and Frenchman Lucas Pouille enters the Top 10 for the first time at #10.

WTA RANKINGS MOVERS: OSTAPENKO, KASATKINA, OSAKA, VICKERY
2017 French Open champion Jelena "Alona" Ostapenko is at #5 while Kasatkina is just outside the Top 10 at #11 (career high) and Osaka cut her ranking in half to a career high of World #22. 22-year-old  African-American Sachia Vickery ousted Garbine Mugruza before losing to Osaka and is now up to World #89.

2018 INDIAN WELLS: Osaka-Kasatkina, Federer-Del Potro Finals

The finals of the 2018 Indian Wells are now set. The men's final is exactly what I predicted on Friday. Roger Federer versus Juan Martin del Potro.

This is their 25th meeting and Federer leads 18-6, although Del Potro famously defeated Federer in the 2009 U.S. Open final and also last year in the 2016 U.S. Open quarterfinal last year. However, Federer survived an amazing 3-set match with Borna Coric, coming back from losing the first set and being a break down in the second set and twice in the third set to win 5-7 6-4 6-4.

 MadProfessah's pick: Federer.

 The women's final is exactly the opposite of what I predicted would happen. This time youth was served, with 20-year-old Daria Kasatkina defeating Venus Williams in one of the most hard-fough 3-set matches of the year while fellow 20-year-old Naomi Osaka blitzed World #1 Simona Halep 6-3 6-0. Whoever wins this match will have the best result by a player born in 1997 on the WTA tour since Jelena Ostapenko won the French Open last year. The two have never played before but I think that Kastakina has shown more mental toughness although Osaka has the more powerful game.

MadProfessah's pick: Kasatkina.

2018 INDIAN WELLS: Semifinalists Set Halep-Osaka, Venus-Kasatkina; Federer-Coric, Raonic-Del Potro

The roster of  players in the men's and women's semifinals of the 2018 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells is now complete. The #1 seeds are still in the hunt on both sides of the draw.

On the men's side these are the matchups:

Roger Federer [1] versus Borna Coric
Juan Martin del Potro [6] versus Milos Raonic [32]

MadProfessah's pick: Federer and Del Potro.

On the women's side these re the matchups:

Simona Halep [1] versus Naomi Osaka
Venus Williams [8] versus Daria Kasatkina [20]

MadProfessah's pick: Halep and Venus Williams.

On my visit to Indian Wells on Wednesday I saw both women's quarterfinals featuring Halep and Osaka and was quite impressed with both players. I think Halep likes this court a bit more and this is Osaka's first time at this stage of a big tournament. Kasatkina demolished Angie Kerber on Thursday (6-0 6-2) and can give anyone fits so I would not be surprised to see her win, but after Venus beat Serena on Monday in a solid 6-4 6-3 performance I think her confidence is sky high.

INDIAN WELLS 2018: Order of Play For My Visit Today

I am going to visit Indian Wells today and will be seeing some interesting matches on Stadium 1:

• Morning Session -- 11am
• Taylor Fritz vs Borna Coric
• Simona Halep vs Petra Martic
• Roger Federer vs Jeremy Chardy
• Juan Martin del Potro vs Leonardo Mayer
  
• Evening session -- 7pm: 
• Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Pliskova
• Marcos Baghdatis vs Milos Raonic

I'll be doing updates during the day on Instagram (@ronbuckmire) and Twitter (@madprofessah).

MIAMI 2013: Haas Hands Djokovic Shock Defeat

Tommy Haas played one of the best matches of his life by defeating Novak Djokovic 6-2 6-4 in the 4th round of the Sony Open in Miami. It was the World #1's second defeat in as many tournaments, having lost to Juan Martin del Potro in the BNP Paribas Open semifinals at Indian Wells.

Haas served impeccably and was out-hitting Djokovic from the back of the court, on both wings. The 34-year-old German has one of the nicest one-handed backhands in the game and he was hitting it beautifully and powerfully tonight. The first set was over in a flash, and Haas jumped out to a quick lead in the second of 3-1 when the Serb started to come back and evened the set at 3-all and 4-all. Then Haas was able to breakthrough again and efficiently served out the match game to claim his first scalp of a World #1 player in fourteen years.

INDIAN WELLS 2013: Nadal Outlasts Del Potro

AP/Mark Terrill

Rafael Nadal racked up his 600th ATP tour career win and a record 22nd ATM Masters shield title by defeating Juan Martin del Potro 4-6 6-3 6-4 in the final of the 2013 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. It was the Spaniard's first hard-court title since 2010 after losing 6 consecutive hard-court finals to Novak Djokovic over the last two years and his 3rd championship win at Indian Wells (2007 and 2009). Nadal has now only lost one match in 2013 (a clay court final in Chile to Horacio Zeballos). The 6'6" Argentine was trying to accomplish many firsts (the first player to beat 3 of the big 4 players at the top of men's tennis to win a title; win his first ATP Masters Series shield; win his first final against Nadal; and become the first Argentine to win the Indian Wells title) but was unable to do so after playing two back-to-back come from behind 3-set victories against Andy Murray on Friday and Novak Djokovic on Saturday. Amazingly, Del Potro was able to come back from a 0-3 deficit in the first set to win it 6-4 and lead 2-0 and 3-1 in the 2nd set before dropping 5 consecutive games and the second set. Despite some chances when down a break in the 3rd set, he was unable to prevent Nadal from serving it out but did manage to save 3 match points on his own serve in the 9th game.

Nadal moves back up to World #4 (displacing countryman David Ferrer) and has already withdrawn from the next ATP masters Series event, the Sony Open in Key Biscayne, which begins on Monday. Federer had earlier announced that he would be skipping Key Biscayne as well to concentrate on preserving his body for later in the season. Djokovic and Murray will be competing in Miami.

INDIAN WELLS 2013: Nadal-Del Potro Final

Rafael Nadal continued his stellar comeback after a 7-month absence from the ATP tour by extending his match record to 16-1 (two clay court titles and a final)  for 2013 to reach the final of the BNP Paribas Open, where he will face Juan Martin del Potro. Del Potro played an amazing match to defeat World #1  Novak Djokovic in the second semifinal on Saturday.

Nadal leads Del Potro 7-3 in their career head-to-head, but this is not surprising since Nadal has a favorable record against every player in the Top 10. In fact, it would be a good question to find out if there is anyone who has a career head-to-head advantage over Nadal who has played him at least twice. Anyway, Del Potro has also delivered the worst beating the Spaniard has ever faced on a hard court with a memorable 6-2 6-2 6-2 drubbing in the 2009 US Open semifinals on his way to winning the title, becoming the first man to beat Nadal and Roger Federer en route to winning a major title. That was also the last time Nadal lost to the 6'6" Argentine, but the two have only played twice since, with no meetings at all in 2010 or 2012.

This final is very important to both players, so it should be an extremely hard-fought match. Nadal is trying to win his 600th career match, to join his arch-rival/frenemy Federer as the only other active player with that many wins. (Federer is closing in on 900 wins, with 888 right now.) He is also trying to win his record 22nd ATP Masters Series shield, breaking a record he currently holds with Federer. But Nadal has 3 clay court Masters series tournaments (in, Monte Carlo which he has won 8 times already, in Madrid and in Rome). Nadal has lost the last 6 hard-court finals he has played in, but then again he was facing Djokovic in those finals. If Djokovic had somehow won his semifinal match with Del Potro, he would be the favorite in today's final.

Del Potro on the other hand is trying to win his first Masters series title and make a claim for his place at the top of men's tennis. There's no question Del Potro has the ability to beat Nadal, but can he do it one day after playing a nearly 3-hour match against Djokovic? That is the question that will be answered later today, and the answer could have a large impact on what happens in men's tennis for the rest of the year. Del Potro must be considered the under dog, but I think he will pull off the upset.

Prediction: Del Potro.

Olympiad XXX: Federer-del Potro at 15-15 in 3rd

Wow! Roger Federer and Juan Martin del Potro are locked in a tight battle to reach the Gold Medal round of the London 2012 Olympics on Sunday August 5.

The score is currently 3-6 7-6(5) 15-15. There are no tiebreaks in the final set of Wimbledon.
Federer has broken del Potro once (in the third set) but couldn't serve out the match, and del Potro broke back and broke once in the first set. Looks like del Potro is ignoring his 2-12 head-to-head record (and my prediction) with Federer right now!

I doubt this match will go as long as 2010's Isner-Mahut (70-68 in deciding 5th set), but they may get to 2012's Tsonga-Raonic (25-23 in deciding 3rd set)!

2012 Wimbledon Day 2: Kvitova, Nadal, Serena, Vika Win

AP

AP

On Day 2 of this year's Wimbledon Championships there was no repeat of the upset fireworks that occurred on Day 1. The last two women's champions at Wimbledon, Serena Williams (2010) and Petra Kvitova (2011), both advanced in surprisingly complicated straight-sets matches, 6-2 6-4 and 6-4 6-4, respectively.
Other players to watch who won today were Victoria Azarenka(2), Marion Bartoli, Vera Zvonareva, and Francesca Schiavone. 2-time major champion Svetlana Kuznetsova crashed out in the 1st round.

On the men's side Rafael Nadal(2) lost the first 4 games of his match against Thomaz Belluci but then managed to win a first set tiebreak and cruised to a straight-sets win. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga(5) dismissed 2-time major champion Lleyton Hewitt in straight sets while Andy Murray(4) easily beat former World #3 Nikolay Davydenko. Other notable winners were Juan Martin del Potro, Marin Cilic, Kei Nishikori and Philip Kohlschreiber. Feliciano Lopez was upset.

INDIAN WELLS '12: Federer-Nadal XXVIII, Nole-Isner

John Isner celebrates his 6-3 1-6 7-5 win over Gilles Simon to reach
 the semifinals of the hard court ATP Masters Series tournament
 in Indian Wells and face World #1 Novak Djokovic 

The semifinals of the first hard court ATP Masters Series tournament of the year are set, and they include the usual suspects: the World's Top 3 players in the world Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer (who have a jaw-dropping 31 Grand Slam singles titles between them) and a curious interloper: World #11, 6'10" American John Isner.

Isner takes the 4th semifinal spot usually occupied by World #4 Andy Murray, who lost his first match here against a very in-form Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Isner will enter the Top 10 in the World if he wins his semifinal match, but he faces World #1, 5-time major champion and 2011 Indian Wells defending champion Novak Djokovic. Isner has never beaten Djokovic in his career, although the two have only played twice, in 2010. Even though Isner is a much better player now, so is Djokovic, and he should prevail to defend his title on Sunday.

Federer-Nadal XVIII is not as highly anticipated this time because the two great players have already met this year (in the semifinals of the 2012 Australian Open) and the career head-to-head is so slanted towards Nadal (18-9), although the hard-court head-to-head record is now dead even at 5-5, thanks to Nadal's wins last year at the 2011 Miami Masters and the 2012 Australian Open. In indoor hard courts Federer leads 4-0 but Nadal leads 5-1 in outdoor hard courts. Federer has looked slightly off his game, possibly ill from the dreaded stomach virus which has claimed many victims (Gael Monfils, Francesca Schiavone, Mike Bryan, and many others) at this year's tournament. However, he played excellent tennis to dispatch Juan Martin del Potro 6-3 6-2 for the fourth time in 2012.

Nadal is playing at a very high level this week, eager to get his chance to contest his 8th consecutive final against Djokovic (0-7!) and has reached the doubles final with compatriot Marc Lopez (where he will face Isner and Sam Querrey). In his quarterfinal match, Nadal was two points from defeat against a resurgent David Nalbandian, who demonstrated once again that he has one of the best backhands in the game but ultimately succumbed 4-6 7-5 6-4 in one of the best matches of the year so far. The match-up on an outdoor hardcourt is simply a very bad one for Federer unless he is playing his very best tennis, so I suspect we will see more of what we have seen before, Nadal beating Federer in the semifinal, and then losing to Djokovic in the final.

MadProfessah's prediction: Djokovic-Nadal final.

US OPEN 2011: Djokovic Beats Nadal For 4th Major

Novak Djokovic cemented his status as the world's best tennis player this year by defeating 2010 U.S. Open champion and World #2 Rafael Nadal of Spain 6-2 6-4 6-7(3) 6-1 in four hours, ten minutes to win the 2011 U.S. Open men's singles title. It was the Serbian World #1's astonishing 64th win in 66 tour matches. It was Djokovic's 6th consecutive defeat of Nadal in a final this year, his 10th title of the year and 3rd major, 4th grand slam title of the year. This is a singular performance in tennis history, clearly surpassing John McEnroe's 1984 record of 82-3 where he won Wimbledon and the U.S. Open as well as losing the French Open final to Ivan Lendl and did not play the Australian Open. Djokovic has managed to compile an almost unbeaten record while playing some of the greatest players of all time in 16-time major champion Roger Federer and 10-time Rafael Nadal (and beating them repeatedly). Djokovic becomes the second player, after Juan Martin del Potro to defeat Federer and Nadal on the way to a major title.

Final Review
As predicted, Djokovic's game matched up well against Nadal's, unfazed by the Spaniard's main weapon, his lefty forehand. However, to me the surprise was that Djokovic did not play his best tennis for most of the match. Nadal really played better during the first two sets, but somehow managed to lose them. For example, Nadal broke Djokovic in the first service game of both of the first two sets, taking a 2-0 lead in each, but ultimately losing them. In the first set, Djokovic responded to the 0-2 deficit by winning 6 games in a row by extending the rallies and dealing better with the windy conditions and rowdy crowds. The Serb was not using his fearsome backhand or powerful forehand to go for winners, instead playing within the lines. What Djokovic did do consistently better than Nadal for the entire match was return serve brilliantly. In the third set, Djokovic started going for more winners, hitting the ball harder and the two traded breaks of serve until Djokovic attempted to serve for the championship up 6-5 and was broken by Nadal to force a tiebreak after some incredibly long rallies and brilliant points which energized the crowd and carried the Spaniard to an easy 7-3 win in the tiebreak.

After holding serve in the first game of the 4th set, Djokovic received treatment on his lower back, taking a medical time out. One would have thought this admission of physical frailty would energize Nadal but instead it seemed to make him uncertain about what approach to take. He held his first service game of the set but then failed to win another game after that, losing the final set 6-1 and seeming to capitulate mentally to the inevitable defeat during the championship game when Djokovic served for the title.

There's no question that Djokovic is as far into Nadal's head as Nadal was in Federer's head at one time. Nadal beat Federer five times in a row (twice) but now Nadal has lost to Djokovic six consecutive times, in important finals (four Masters Series finals and 2 Grand Slam finals). This loss will be difficult for Nadal to take because even though Djokovic cracked first physically, Nadal cracked mentally (and was on the edge of cracking physically).

Next year should be fun!

World ATP Finals: Federer v. Davydenko, Soderling v. del Potro

Despite losing to Juan Martín Del Potro in their round robin match 2-6 7-6(5) 3-6, World #1 Roger Federer (and the 20-year-old reigning US Open Champion who beat him) advanced to the semifinals of the World ATP Finals in London on Thursday in Group A. Local favorite Andy Murray became the first person ever eliminated in the year-end round-robin fault due to the percentage of games won (50.57% to del Potro's 51.14% and Federer's 52.38%). If Federer had won one more game against del Potro or Murray had lost one less game against Federer (or won more game against Verdasco), the Brit would have qualified instead.

In the other group, defending champion Novak Djokovic was eliminated after winning 4 sets and losing 3 compared to Nikolay Davydenko who won 5 sets and losing 3 and Robin Soderling who won 5 sets and lost 2. In both groups the Spanish player lost all 3 matches (Fernando Verdasco and Rafael Nadal) and the other players all won 2 matches and lost 1. In group A, all matches went to three sets!

In the semifinals, Federer will face Davydenko, whom he has never lost to in a dozen ATP Tour matches while Soderling will face del Potro. del Potro has beaten the tall Swede in hard courts once this year (and also had a walkover over Soderling on his way to winning the Washington ATP tournament this summer over Andy Roddick). However, Soderling has beaten del Potro on carpet indoors in his hometown tournament (in 2007).

I predict another del Potro versus Federer match-up in the final. It will be interesting to see if the 15-time champion can come up with a solution to the 6'6" powerful young Argentine player with the 135+ mph first serve and the ability to his 100 mph winners on both wings. I suspect it will be another three set match, with Federer prevailing this time.

MadProfessah's pick: Federer over Davydenko in straight sets, del Potro over Soderling in three sets.

ATP Year-End Championships Starts

The last tournament of the year on the men's side starts today in London, the Barclays ATP World Your Finals (formerly known as the ATP Masters Series Championships). Last year's tournament was won by Novak Djokovic.

Here's the draw:

Group A
Roger Federer (SUI)
Andy Murray (GBR)
Juan Martin del Potro (ARG)
Fernando Verdasco (ESP)

Group B
Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Nikolay Davydenko (RUS)
Robin Soderling (SWE)

Hat/tip to Craig Hickman. If Nadal gets further than Federer, the Spaniard could end the year at #1 for the second consecutive year, despite Federer appearing in Four grand slam finals this year and winning two (Roland Garros and Wimbledon), while Nadal won one (Australia).

Paris Masters: Djokovic Defeats Monfils in 3-set Thriller

Novak Djokovic won his second consecutive title on Sunday and his first ATP Masters Series crown of 2009 by defeating Gael Monfils of France 6-2 5-7 7-6(3) in front of a hometown crowd in Paris. Last week, Djokovic beat Roger Federer in 3 sets in the 3-time defending champion's hometown of Basel, Swizerland to win the Davidoff Swiss Indoor Championships.

Monfils lost the first set in about 30 minutes but came back to win the second, and despite being down a break in the third set never gave up and unfortunately double-faulted on match point in the deciding tie-breaker.

Djokovic will be defending his ATP World Tour championship from 2008 in London in two weeks, with a field that will include Federer, Rafael Nadal (who Djokovic beat in Paris), Andy Murray, Juan Martin del Potro, Andy Roddick, Fernando Verdasco and Nikolay Davydenko.

Paris Masters Semifinals: Nadal v Djokovic, Monfils v Stepanek

Gael Monfils will face Radek Stepanek in one semifinal while Novak Djokovic will face Rafael Nadal in the other to see who makes the final of the Paris Indoor Masters tournament.

I think I'll take Monfils over Stepanek, and Nadal over Djokovic, since the World #2 is playing on borrowed time after not one but two narrow escapes earlier in the week against Nicolas Almagro (saving 5 match points) and Tommy Robredo, although he had a good win over defending champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the previous round. Djokovic keeps on mentioning how tired he is, carrying the record of the most wins on tour for the year of any competitor, and starting off tired against a determined Nadal is not bode well for a good result.

Djokovic defeats Federer in Basel Final

This one's gotta hurt. World #4 Novak Djokovic defeated World #1 Roger Federer 6-4 4-6 6-2 in the final of Swiss Indoor championships in Federer's hometown of Basel. Djokovic won his tour-leading 71st match of the year and 4th title. Federer fell to 59-9 and lost in the deciding set in a final for the 3rd time this year (Australian Open final to Radael Nadal, U.S. Open final to Juan Martin del Potro and now to Djokovic). He was also attemptig to win his hometown tournament where he had served as a ball boy as youth for the fourth consecutive year.

US OPEN 2009: Del Potro Wins 1st Major Title

20-year-old Argentine Juan Martin del Potro outlasted 15-time major champion, 28-year-old Roger Federer 3-6, 7-6 (5), 4-6, 7-6 (4), 6-2 in a 4 hour, 6 minute marathon to win his first major title and prevent the Swiss great from winning his 6th consecutive US Open title.

Del Potro became the first person to win a major by beating Federer and Nadal at a major tournament. In the semifinals, del Potro handed the Spaniard his worst loss in a major, allowing Nadal a mere 6 games in 3 sets. The Argentine also became the first person in Federer's 21 grand slam major finals to beat Federer other than Nadal (who has done it 5 times out of 7).

Federer was definitely not playing his best tennis, not serving particularly well, finishing with only 13 aces and 11 double faults over 5 sets, a far cry from the 50 aces Federer served in his thrilling 5-set Wimbledon win over Andy Roddick earlier in the summer.
Federer finished with 56 winners to 62 errors (-6) compared to del Potro's 57 winners to 60 errors (-3). Federer was attempting to extend a 40-match winning streak in New York, his last loss coming to another Argentine, David Nalbandian, in 2003. However, despite being ahead in both the second and fourth set, Federer managed to lose them both in tiebreaks and eventually lost the match and his title to the 6'6" 182 pound youngster from Tandil, Argentina.