2013 Wimbledon: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2013. Last year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals.

Serena Williams (USA) [1] Sabine Lisicki (GER) [23] vs. Laura Robson (GBR) Kaia Kanepi (EST). In a Wimbledon full of shocking upsets, the shock defeat in the fourth round of the 1:4 favorite (the 5-time Wimbledon champion and reigning French Open champion) must clearly be considered one of the very biggest surprises of the tournament. The fact is that it was only Serena's 3rd loss of the year is enough to let you know what an unusual result Sabine Lisicki's victory was. In England, an even bigger story was the ouster of British hope Laura Robson from the tournament by a resurgent Kaia Kanepi. Kanepi was two points from defeat in the second round against last year's semifinalist Angelique Kerber so she must feel that she is playing with "house money." This match should be a nice example of "Big Babe" tennis, where the winner is usually determined by the player with the better mobility and/or the person with more consistent and powerful serve. The German has the edge in both these categories and should win relatively easily to reach her second career Wimbledon semifinal in three years. PREDICTION: Lisicki.

Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) [4] vs. Na Li (CHN) [6]. This meeting should be the highlight of this round. The Chinese player leads their head-to-head 6-4 but the Polish player has a 2-1 lead in their grass curt meetings. However, Li won their last meeting relatively easily, which was in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open earlier this year. Radwanska has actually been in 8 major quarterfinals compared to Li's 7, but Li has had far more success in those matches, winning four of them while Radwanska has only been tasted success at Wimbledon. Radwanska is clearly the more consistent player, while Li is the more powerful. Radwanska is crafty, while Li is often mentally fragile at key moments. All of these different factors to combine to make this a very hard match to predict what will happen. PREDICTION: Li in 2 sets, Radwanska in 3 sets.

Sloane Stephens (USA) [17]  vs. Maria Sharapova (RUS) [3] Marion Bartoli (FRA) [15]. This is another intriguing match-up reminiscent of the tussle between Radwanska and Li. The two have only met once before, in a meeting on hard courts at the New Haven tournament which was won by Bartoli in three see-saw sets. Stephens has nowhere to go but up in her career, playing in her very first Wimbledon quarterfinal, while Bartoli is now 28 years old and knows all-too well how rare these opportunities come along, having only played in two semifinals her career. Stephens moves better than Bartoli and has to be pleased that she is facing the quirky Frenchwoman instead of the #2 seed Maria Sharapova. Bartoli's main chance to win this match is if she can overpower Stephens and overwhelm her with accuracy to compensate for her inferior ability to move around the court. Stephens is actually not playing that well (she has more unforced errors than winners for the tournament) but she is competing well and that has been enough to get her through to the quarterfinals. But it may not be enough to get her any further in the draw. It should also be noted that Bartoli has had great success in the past winning matches she was not expected (or supposed) to win, such as her 2007 Wimbledon semifinal win against Justine Henin and her 2011 Wimbledon straight set win over Serena Williams in the Round of 16. One key question is will Bartoli's experience outmatch Stephens' youth and confidence? PREDICTION: Bartoli in 2 sets, Stephens in 3 sets. 

Petra Kvitova (CZE) [8] vs. Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [2] Kirsten Flipkens (BEL) [20].  Flipkens is a good grass court player (she lost in the final of one of the warm-up grass-court tournaments) and even though she is playing in the very first major quarterfinal of her career, she has a reasonable chance to win this match. She actually has a 2-1 head-to-head lead against her quarterfinal opponent Petra Kvitova, and has even beaten her this year. However, Kvitova has won this tournament, just two short years ago, lost last year in the quarterfinal to the eventual champion and the year before in the semifinals to the eventual champion. If Kvitova is on then there is no reason to think that she won't reach her 2nd career Wimbledon final.PREDICTION: Kvitova. 

WIMBLEDON 2011: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011. I predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly. Last year I predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals correctly.

Maria Sharapova RUS (5) vs Sabine Lisicki GER . Sharapova appears to be returning to the form that has led her to win 3 major tournaments (2008 Australian Open, 2006 US Open and 2004 Wimbledon) so far after surgery in 2009 really deteriorated her game. Lisicki is a wild card has put on two amazing performances on Wimbledon Centre Court this year, dismissing 2011 French Open champion Li Na in the 3rd round and eliminating 2007 Wimbledon finalist Marion Bartoli in the quarterfinals. With both Williams sisters gone from the tournament (this was Serena's half) this is the most wide open Wimbledon in over a decade. If  you start to match up the two player's games Lisicki has the better serve, while Sharapova has the better return.

Sharapova has the better second serve, or at least she goes for more, but this also makes it less reliable. Sharapova has 19 aces but also 19 double faults over 5 matches so far. Lisicki has 44 aces and only 13 double faults. Sharapova has a total of 126 winners while Liscki has 157, including an incredible 52 winners in the round before in her 3-set win over Bartoli. Lisicki is probably the better mover but Sharapova is faster than she appears and can do more with the ball when she gets there. Analyzing their groundstrokes you have to give a big advantage to Sharapova, especially on the backhand side, with the forehand side being a bit closer. On grass you have to give the edge to the better server (Lisicki) but all the intangibles (been in this position before, mental toughness) go to Sharapova.I would be delighted if Lisicki wins, but I think it's more likely she will falter than Sharapova will. I was very surprised that Lisicki had to play a 3rd set against Bartoli, after having 3 match points in the second set, but she shook that off to win 6-1. If she gives that opportunity to Sharapova to come back, the Russian will reach her 2nd Wimbledon final. PREDICTION: Who I think will win: Sharapova, Who I want to win: Lisicki.

Victoria Azarenka BLR (4) vs. Petra Kvitova CZE (8). This should be the more interesting match of the two because the higher ranked player is the one with the less experience being in the semifinals of Wimbledon. However, I'm sure in her own mind Azarenka feels like she should have won a major already. Azarenka is like a young Novak Djokovic in that early in his career the Serbian retired in a number of important matches and Azarenka is (in)famous for her withdrawals from multiple matches, especially this year.

They are both incredibly talented players and you totally expect them to win multiple majors. Djokovic has met (and possibly even exceeded) expectations but Azarenka is still waiting for her big breakthrough. If you look at each of the semifinalists' records to this point Azarenka has only had 10 aces to 9 double faults in 5 rounds. Kvitova has had 26 aces to 11 double faults. Interestingly, when you match up their games you see that Kvitova has the better serve and the better ground strokes. Azarenka is by far the better mover and I think the intangibles are pretty even. Kvitova disappointed me when she lost a 2nd set tie-break to Tsevetana "Venus-killer" Pironkova with some bad misses on attempted winners. Then again, like Lisicki, she won the deciding set pretty easily. This second match should be closer than the first semifinal with Kvitova, another left-handed female player born in Czechoslovakia like the great Martina Navratiilova, reaching her first (but probably not her last) Wimbledon final. PREDICTION: Who I think will win: Kvitova, Who I want to win: Kvitova.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

Petra Kvitova                                © AELTC/J.Buckle

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals.

Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1) Dominika Cibulkova SVK (24) vs Maria Sharapova RUS (5). For the first time since 2006 Maria Sharapova is in a Wimbledon quarterfinal when there is no possibility of a facing a Williams sister in order to win the title. Her immediate challenge is to defeat a woman who is almost a full foot shorter but who has beaten her the one time they played in a major. Cibulkova embarrassed Sharapova 6-0 6-2 in the quarterfinals of the 2009 French Open. Amazingly, all four of their career meetings have been on clay, and  the two are locked at 2-all, with the shorter player having won the last 2 matches, including one this year. However, Sharapova is much more comfortable on grass than clay. Cibulkova is also coming off one of the best wins of her career by basically blasting the World #1 Caroline Wozniacki off the court with nearly 20 forehand winners in a 1-6 7-6(5) 7-5 victory. The match-up on paper looks like a clear win for Sharapova, but Cibulkova has beaten her before and believes in her game. The question will be if Sharapova believes in her game, especially her (second) serve. PREDICTION: Sharapova in 3 sets.

Sabine Lisicki GER  vs. Serena Williams USA (7) Marion Bartoli FRA (9). Sabine Lisicki had one of the most outstanding performances by a female tennis player this year when she saved 2 match points against #3 seed Li Na (the most successful player at the Grand Slam tournaments this year) to win 3-6 6-4 8-6 in the second round. Lisicki has yet to lose a match on grass this year, having won in Birmingham right before Wimbledon, but she had to write the All-England Lawn Tennis Club in order to get a wildcard to enter the tournament, which was granted. 2007 Wimbledon finalist Marion Bartoli  put on an incredible performance in the 4th round of Wimbledon to dismiss the 2-time defending champion Serena Williams by out-hitting and out-serving the 13-time major champion in two sets 6-3 7-6(6). Bartoli had more aces (10 to 8) than Serena and in most of the rallies was hitting the ball harder and more aggressively. Serena did not play her best, true, but Bartoli won the match more than Serena lost it. Head-to-head Lisicki leads Bartoli 2-1 including a win over the Frenchwoman this year but Bartoli's lone win was on grass at Wimbledon in 2008. Bartoli had 11 aces in the first 3 rounds and 10 in the fourth. I seriously doubt she can play as well two rounds in a row. The German wild-card is a real contender to win the entire tournament. PREDICTION: Lisicki in 2 sets.

Tamira Paszek AUT  vs. Victoria Azarenka BLR (4). The highest remaining seed is the hard-hitting (and ear-splitting) Belarussian who has reached her 5th career grand Slam quarterfinal at this year's Wimbledon but who has never reached a major semifinal. I expect that streak to end on Tuesday. Her opponent, Paszek had an impressive win over 2010 French Open champion Francesca Schiavone in the 3rd round 3-6 6-4 11-9 after nearly four hours of play. Paszek had been long touted as a player to watch about 3 or 4 years ago but injuries got in the way and the 20-year-old is the furthest she has reached in a major since her breakthrough debut year in 2007. Azarenka has the power and mentality to dismiss most players outside of the Top 10. Paszek is not an exception.PREDICTION: Azarenka in 2 sets. 

Petra Kvitova CZE (8) vs. Venus Williams USA (23) Tsvetana Pironkova BUL (32). Pironkova must be Bulgarian for "kryptonite" because there is no other explanation for why the greatest women's grass court player of her generation would lose in two consecutive years to the same player, by the same exact score (6-2 6-3)! Last year Pironkova's stunning win was one round later and she followed it by losing a hideous match against Vera Zvonareva in the semifinals. The player in the other semifinal last year was Petra Kvitova who lost a high-quality affair to eventual champion Serena Williams. This year, Pironkova has to face the hard-hitting, fearless lefty who has the game to defeat anyone on the tour but didn't quite believe in herself enough. This year she has the belief that she can do it, and she can. PREDICTION: Kvitova in 2 sets.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Disaster! Serena and Venus Lose!

OMG! Venus and Serena William, who have won 9 of the last 11 Wimbledon singles titles between them, both lost in their fourth round matches on Monday June 27th ( a day that will live in infamy).

Venus lost 6-2 6-3 to Tsevetana Pironkova, the Bulgarian player who beat her in the 2010 Wimbledon quarterfinals (by the same exact score) and in the 2006 Australian Open 1st round.

Serena lost to 2007 Wimbledon finalist Marion Bartoli 6-3 7-6(6).

There are no words. Both played pretty horrendously. Clearly "Pironkova" is Kryptonite in Bulgarian because there is really no explanation for why Venus plays so horrendously against her.

Oh, in other "upset news" Dominque Cibulkova eliminated the #1 player in the world, Caroline Wozniacki.

The only player who has still won a major on the women's side is Maria Sharapova, who won the 2004 Wimbledon title over Serena.