Showing posts with label Roland Garros. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Roland Garros. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Nadal Wins 18th Major, Record 12th(!) Roland Garros Title





As I predicted, Rafael Nadal won his 12th Roland Garros title on Sunday, defeating Dominc Thiem for the second year in a row  6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1. The King of Clay is now 93-2 on the clay courts in Paris, having only ever lost to Novak Djokovic (2015) and Robin Soderling (2009).

The win brings Nadal, 33, to 18 major singles title, just 2 behind Roger Federer, 37 and 3 ahead of Djokovic's 15. Djokovic still is the World #1, but Nadal has reached two major finals this year and won one of them. Djokovic has the maximum number of points to defend at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open while Nadal has semifinals points to defend in both (Wimbledon l. Djokovic, US Open l. Juan Martin del Potro). To me there's no question that Nadal is the greatest of all time on clay, but I think the question of who is the greatest tennis player of all time it's still too early too tell, but currently Federer occupies that spot with his astonishing 20 major singles title. Amazingly, Nadal's 12 titles at Roland Garros is more major titles than Rod Laver, John McEnroe, Bjorn Borg, Andre Agassi, Stefan Edberg and many other great players earned in their entire career. Only 4 players, (Don Budge, Pete Sampras, Djokovic and Federer) have won more majors than Nadal has won French Open titles. To me, Nadal's extreme dominance in one area is a counter-argument to his claim to greatness because he has only won3 US Opens, 1 Australian Open and 2 Wimbledons, which are not really "notable achievements" taken together. Regardless, the conversation and arguments will continue until all 3 retire, which hopefully will not be for quite awhile!

Sunday, June 09, 2019

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Barty Wins First Major Title, Reaches World #2





As I predicted, #8 seed Ash Barty, 23, defeated Czech lefty Marketa Vondrousova, 19, in the final of the 2019 French Open, 6-1 6-3. Barty's win means that her new ranking will be World #2 on Monday. In fact, she will be less than 200 points behind World #1 Naomi Osaka who has won the two previous majors (2019 Australian Open and 2018 U.S. Open).

In the final, Barty was quickly up a set and a break (6-1, 2-0) and unlike the last two women who were in that situation in the Roland Garros final (Simona Halep in 2017 and Sloane Stephens in 2018), Barty did not falter and went on to win the title, instead of losing in three sets.

Barty had never passed the second round in her five previous appearances before this year. By winning the major she became Australian's latest major champion after a gap of 8 years (2011 US Open) and her ascent to World #2 is the first time an Aussie woman had been ranked that high since 1976.

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)


This is my prediction post for the 2019 French Open men's final. Last year I correctly predicted that Rafael Nadal  would defeat Dominic Thiem This year I predicted 1 of 2 men's semifinals correctly2 of 2 women's semifinals correctly0 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly


 MEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW


Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] d. Roger Federer (SUI) [3] 6-3 6-4 6-2. This was the 39th meeting between the two tennis greats and despite Federer's improved backhand the result on clay was what was expected--an unsuspenseful win by Nadal, bringing his head to head lead back up to 24-15. The match was greatly affected by the weather as the wind was extremely high. Nadal was able to play more of his game in the weather than Federer was and was able to break Federer early in all 3 sets. (In the second set the break was a break-back which effectively ended Federer's chances to make the  match competitive.)

Dominc Thiem (AUT) [4] d. Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] 6-2 3-6 7-5 5-7 7-5. This match was played over two days and was disrupted by weather multiple times. Thiem's win was quite a surprise, because Djokovic had won 26 consecutive grand slam matches. However, since Thiem had beaten Djokovic at this stage in the tournament before it was not out of the question it would happen again. It signals a significant breakthrough for the post-trivalry generation of another player under 30 reaching their second major final and signals that at some point in future the Prince of Clay may become the king.


 MEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

This is a reprise of last year's final which was easily won by Nadal. Since then, these two have played an epic 5-set match at the U.S. Open which was also won by Nadal, despite Thiem winning the first set 6-0! It's hard to see any other result beside Nadal winning his 12th French Open, but I think atleast the match will be extended to either four or five sets. PREDICTION: Nadal.

Saturday, June 08, 2019

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Marketa Vondrousova (CZE) vs Ash Barty (AUS) [8]
This is my prediction post for the 2019 French Open women's final. Last year I correctly predicted that Simona Halep would defeat Sloane Stephens This year I predicted 1 of 1 men's semifinals correctly2 of 2 women's semifinals correctly0 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly


 WOMEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Ashleigh Barty (AUS) [8] d. Ananda Anisimova (USA) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-3. Barty lost the first set to the teen phenom Amanda Anisimova but then was able to remain calm and simply outlast and outplay her opponent to win the last two sets relatively easily to reach her first major final and prevent an all-teen major final, the first since the 1999 US Open with Serena Williams and Martina Hingis.

Marketa Vondrousova (CZE) d. Johanna Konta (GBR) [26] 7-5 7-6(2).  As I predicted, Vondrousova was able to use the complexity of her game to outlast her more experienced and more powerful opponent to win, although it was a rather close match the winner depended on being better on just a few very important points. Surprisingly, the younger player was able to be that player.



 WOMEN'S FINALS PREVIEW

The 19-year-old Marketa Vondrousova has reached her first major final without losing a set over 6 rounds at this year's French Open. In fact, the Czech lefty is playing in her 3rd final of the year (she lost the first two) and has reached the quarterfinal or better of every tournament she played this year. She is the first teenager in a major final since Ana Ivanovic did it in 2007. Vondrousova has a 28-6 record for the year (27-5 since the Australian Open), which is the best on tour. She will face 23-year-old Ash Barty, whom she has played twice before (on grass in 2017 and hard court on 2018) and lost both times without winning a set. Barty will reach World #3 by reaching the final and can get as high as World #2 by winning the tournament, which would make her the highest rated Aussie female player in over 40 years(!) What's nice about the match is that it should be entertaining, since both Barty and Vondousova have crafty, smart games and tend not to overwhelm their opponents with power. Barty in particular is one of the few players who is in the Top 10 in doubles and singles, which shows in her comfort in all portions of the court. That, and the extra experience she has give Barty the edge. PREDICTION: Barty.

Friday, June 07, 2019

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview


Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the 2019 French Open I have also predicted the women's semifinals. This year I predicted 0 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly. Last year I predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals correctly and 2 of 2 women's semifinals correctly.


Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Dominic Thiem (AUT) [4]

 Unlike the women's tournament, where there will be a first-time grand slam winner and there are two unseeded teenage players in the semifinals, the men's tournament features a player in his 4th consecutive Roland Garros semifinal, and he's the least accomplished player of the quarter remaining in the draw! This is the 8th meeting between Djokovic and Thiem and the 15-time major champion leads 6-2, including 3-2 on clay. But Thiem beat Djokovic in the semifinal round here 2 years ago in straight sets, when Djokovic was close to his nadir. However, the World #1 has now won 26 Grand Slam matches in a row and there's pretty good chance that he will win his second career Nole Slam on Sunday. Such a feat would cement his status as the future G.O.A.T, ahead of his two contemporaries in the golden "trivalry" of Federer-Nadal-Djokovic. Only the Prince of Clay stands in his way from a potential (record!) 55th meeting with Nadal in the final of Roland Garros on Sunday, the most difficult feat in tennis, one that he has accomplished once before. It's hard to bet against him, and I wouldn't. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] vs Roger Federer (SUI) [3] 
Well here we are! After skipping the clay for the last three years in the second wind of his career to concentrate on winning Wimbledon, Federer surprised the tennis world by agreeing to play the clay season. I agree with most observers who think this will probably be the last time we see Federer play on clay, and this is one reason he is happy to have made the semifinals (and the concomitant ranking points) as well as this last opportunity to meet Rafa on clay, where he has lost 13 of 15 matches the two have played.  Interestingly, this semifinal result is the best Federer has had in the last four slams, having lost in the fourth round in Australia (to Stefanos Tsitsipas) and New York (to John Millman) and the quarterfinal (to Kevin Anderson). Presumably, he expects his results in the next four slams to be decidedly better as he prepares to retire after the Tokyo Olympics (as he chases the elusive Singles Gold medal). This Federer-Nadal XXXIX or #Fedal39 and even though Federer has won the last 5 meetings against Nadal (bringing the head-to-head deficit to only 15-23 thanks to a tennis racquet with a larger head and a more forceful and aggressive topspin backhand) the matchup has never been great for the Swiss Maestro, especially on clay. I would love for Federer to win this match, but I find it hard to even see him winning a set, frankly. And I'm okay with that. I wish the draw had been different and Thiem was in Federer's half and Nadal in Djokovic's. Then I would think there's a VERY good chance of a Federer-Djokovic final. This year, I don't think that's gonna happen. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Thursday, June 06, 2019

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview


Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the 2019 French Open I will also predict the men's semifinals. This year I predicted 0 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly. Last year I predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals correctly and 2 of 2 women's semifinals correctly

Simona Halep (ROU) [3] Ananda Anisimova (USA) vs. Ashleigh Barty (AUS) [8]. 17-year-old American phenom Amanda Anisimova, who Matt Roberts of the Tennis Podcast says "has the best backhand in women's tennis" pulled off the biggest upset of an already surprising women's tournament at Roland Garros. She defeated last year's French Open champion and the prohibitive favorite Simona Halep in straight sets. In fact, Anisimova has won all 10 sets of tennis she has played at Roland Garros this year!  She will face Ash Barty who is the only player to be ranked in the Top 10 of both singles and doubles simultaneously on either side of the draw. Barty has been playing excellent tennis all year, having won her biggest title in Miami by defeating World #2 Karolina Pliskova. Barty was able to blunt the power of last year's semifinalist Madison Keys to reach her first major semifinal. Barty is now the highest rated player remaining in the draw, and has an excellent chance of winning her first Grand Slam singles title (she has two Grand Slam doubles titles). She has never played Anisimova before but her game is difficult for anyone to handle, with lots of spins and fearlessness at the net. Who will feel more nerves, the 23-year-old favorite or the 17-year-old upstart? Anisimova showed (almost) no nerves in her dismissal of Halep, so I suspect it will be Barty, but I think the Aussie's game will get her to the finish line. PREDICTION: Barty.

Sloane Stephens (USA) [7] Johanna Konta (GBR) [26] vs Marketa Vondrousova (CZE).  What is it about the French Open that so many players win their first (and perhaps only) major title here? Jelena Ostapenko (2017), Francesca Schiavone (2011)  and Anastaasia Myskina (2004) are just a few that come to mind. Can Johanna Konta join this list? She had never won a main draw match at Roland Garros yet when she defeated last year's finalist Sloane Stephens in straight sets Chris Evert said it was one of the best clay court performances she had ever seen. I definitely did not expect that to happen! Her opponent in her first major semifinal will be the 18-year-old Czech lefty Marketa Vondrousova who has reached the quarterfinals (or better) in every tournament she has played this year.  She already has demonstrated that she has made a quantum improvement in her game by defeating Petra Martic in the quarterfinals, a player she had lost 4 consecutive matches to  (including a clay court final this year). The two have  a 1-1 head-to-head record but Konta beat Vondrousova on her way to reaching the final in Rome just a few weeks ago (where she lost to Pliskova, who is no longer in the tournament). Konta has only one style of play while Vondrousova's game is much more creative and stylish, thus she can find multiple ways to win, and I think she will. PREDICTIONVondrousova

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Quarterfinals Preview (and Predictions)


Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the 2019 French Open I have also predicted the men's quarterfinals. Last year I predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly.

Naomi Osaka (JPN) [1] Madison Keys (USA) [14] vs. Ashleigh Barty (AUS) [8]. Although it may seem surprising, Madison Keys actually plays some of her best tennis on clay courts. She reached the semifinals in Paris last year (where she was again not able to play her best tennis against her best friend on tour Sloane Stephens in another huge match). Both of these players have not been talked about much this year while 4/5ths of the World top 5 was crashing out in the early rounds (#1 Naomi Osaka and #2 Karolina Pliskova lost early  while #4 Kiki Bertens and #5 Petra Kvitova withdrew) but both have reached the business end of the tournament playing excellent tennis. Curiously, their head-to-head is tied at 1-apiece with Barty having won their last match (in Fed Cup) but Keys having won the one time that played on clay (two years ago). I'm going with Maddy. PREDICTION: Keys.

Simona Halep (ROU) [3] vs. Ananda Anisimova (USA).  This is Anisimova's major second week debut, which is pretty amazing for a 17 year old. The American phenom becomes the first person, male or female, born in the 21st century to reach a major quarterfinal. Halep completely destroyed her opponent in the previous round and is the defending champion here. I believe she will reach the final again, although I do think the youngster will acquit herself well. PREDICTION: Halep.

Kiki Bertens (NED) [4] Johanna Konta (GBR) [26] vs. Sloane Stephens (USA) [7].  This may be the most exciting of the four quarterfinals. Konta has never won a match in the main draw of the French Open before (is she going to try and pull a feast-or-famine performance reminiscent of 2017 winner Jelena Ostapenko?) while Stephens was in last year's final. Konta has been getting reasonably good results on clay, however, and has beaten Sloane twice this year (just a few weeks ago, on clay, in Rome as well as in Brisbane. However, I think that Sloane's game is bigger and more flexible that she can find different ways to win, which is really not true of Konta. PREDICTIONStephens

Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [2] Marketa Vondrousova (CZE) vs. Petra Martic (CRO) [31]. Yet another teenaged phenom in the final 8 of a major. Czech lefty Marketa Vondrousova has been one of the hottest players on tour all year long. Curiously, these two have already an established rivalry going, with Martic up 4-0 in the head-to-head, including in the final of the clay court tournament in Istanbul a month ago. Sometimes a bad matchup is a bad matchup. PREDICTION: Martic.

Monday, June 03, 2019

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Quarterfinals Preview (and Predictions)


Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the 2019 French Open I will also predict the women's quarterfinals. Last year I predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Alexander Zverev (GER) [5].  Djokovic has yet to lose a set  at this year's tournament and now has an amazing 25 match winning streak at Grand Slams as he goes for his second career "Nole Slam." He is going for his thirty-fifth major semifinal, while his opponent is going for his first. Interestingly, Zverev has an even head-to-head from the four matches the two have played, which is notable because while there are only 80 players who have played at least 4 matches with Djokovic only one person has a winning record (Andy Roddick!) If Zverev does win the match tomorrow, he would be in rarefied company. But  I don't think that's going to happen. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Dominic Thiem (AUT) [4] vs Juan Martin del Potro (ARG) [8] Karen Khachanov (RUS) [10] Last year's finalist Dominic Thiem has been surprisingly vulnerable at this year's tournament, losing a set in every match he played except the latest one, which was a mind-numbingly routine win over an in-form Gael Monfils who had not lost a set getting to the fourth round and then could not win a single one against Thiem. In fact, Monfils has never won a set against Thiem and has given him a walkover win twice in the 8 matches they have been scheduled to play. Khachanov is a NextGen player who reached his first major quarterfinal by outlasting a mildly injured Juan Martin del Potro. Interestingly, Khachanov and Thiem have only played once before and the younger player has the win, and it occurred in Paris last year, while Khachanov was winning the Paris Masters title in the Fall. In fact, Khachanov is on a 10-match winning streak in Paris, so that should give him some confidence, but I don't think it will prevent Thiem getting to the Roland Garros semifinals for  the fourth consecutive year. Mad Professah's pick: Thiem.

Roger Federer (SUI) [3] vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) [6] Stan Wawrinka (SUI) [23]. Wawrinka played the best match of the tournament, and probably the year with Stefanos Tsitsipas, a 5-hour-9-minute, 5-set match in the round of 16. Wawrinka is a 3-time major champion, including winning the 2015 French Open which is where he took out Roger Federer in the quarterfinal on his way to winning the title that year after Djokovic eliminated the King of Clay in the quarterfinals. These two Swiss players have met 25 times on the tour and Federer has an imposing 22-3 lead. However all 3 win by Wawrinka have occurred on clay, but Federer still has an overall 4-3 lead on the surface and 6-1 in majors (although only one of  their matches has gone to 5 sets, which was one by Federer on his way to winning the 2017 Australian Open). Is that a presage of the result in this match? Mad Professah's pick: Federer.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] vs Kei Nishikori (JPN) [7]. Two of Nishikori's four matches here have been 5 sets while Nadal has only dropped a single set in 4 matches, with numerous breadsticks and bagels handed out. Nishikori has 2 wins (compared to 10 losses) against Nadal, but neither of the wins have been on clay or in 5 sets. Nadal's record at Roland Garros is 90-2. It doesn't seem likely that one of these very historic results will happen against Nishikori. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Tuesday, May 28, 2019

2019 FRENCH OPEN: First Round Complete (Kerber, Kvitova, Wozniacki, Medvedev, Ceccinato, Shapovalov OUT!)


The first round of the 2019 French Open is complete and the upsets have been few and far between. ON the women's side 5th seed Angelique Kerber (who I predicted to get to the final--oh well!) lost in straight sets to the hard-hitting youngster Anastasia Potapova. Injured 13th seed Caroline Wozniacki also lost in the first round despite bageling her opponent Veronika Kudermetova   to begin the match. Petra Kvitova withdrew from the tournament with a forearm muscle tear a few hours before her first round match, 18 year old Felix Auger-Aliassime also withdrew while his best friend and countryman (and 20th seed) Denis Shapovalov lost to Jan-Lennard Struff. On the men's side the highest seed to lose in the first round was 14th seed Daniil Medvedev lost a 5-set thriller to Pierre-Hughes Herbert while Nicolas Mahut eliminated last year's French Open semifinalist (and 16th seed) Marco Cecchinato in another 5-setter.

Some big names had close calls: World #1 (and #1 seed) Naomi Osaka lost her first set in a bagel and was two points from defeat down a break twice in the middle set but after pulling out the tiebreaker was able to run away with the decider. #10 seed Serena Williams lost her first set 2-6 but then turned it around and was dominant in the rest of the match, losing only one game. Close calls were not limited to the women. #5 seed Sasha Zverev took over 4 hours to subdue John Millman and #4 seed Dominic Thiem was basically being outplayed for two sets but managed to dismiss American Tommy Paul in 4. Even last year's champion Simona Halep lost a set in her first round but also won relatively easily in 3.

Sunday, June 10, 2018

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Nadal Wins 17th Major (11th French Open) By Beating Dominic Thiem






As I predicted, Spaniard Rafael Nadal won his 11th French Open title in Paris on Sunday, his 17th major overall by defeating Dominic Thiem of Austria by the score of 6-4 6-3 6-2. Nadal won the tournament by only dropping a single set (in the quarterfinals of Diego Schwartzman of Argentina).

HOW THE FINAL WAS WON
Thiem started off the match very badly, losing the first 6 points in a row and was broken immediately. However, quite surprisingly he was able to break back and even the score at 2-all. Games went on sere until Thiem was serving at 4-5 when suddenly he payed a horrible game, going down 0-40 (triple set point for Nadal) and lost the next point to lose the first set. He also got broken almost immediately in the second set ad it was basically all down hill from there, with another straight sets win for Nadal.

ANALYSIS OF THE RESULT
Amazingly, Federer and Nadal have won the last 6 major titles, both over the age of 30. It means that Nadal, 32, is still only 3 major titles behind Federer's 20, and is 5 years younger (Federer tuns 37 in August). Today's win also means Nadal maintains the possibility (perhaps even the likelihood) of eventually evening and perhaps surpassing Federer's total of major singles titles. I would argue that the fact that Nadal is clearly the best on clay ever and has won 11 of his 17 titles on clay actually is an argument AGAINST the claim that Nadal is te G.O.A.T. It demonstrates that the source of his greatness is his dominance of clay (which is amazing) but the same cannot be said for either Grass (where he has 2 Wimbledon titles to Federer's 8) or hardcourts (where he has 4 major titles: 3 US Open and 1 Australian to Federer's 11: 5 US Open and 6 Australian).

The baton now switches to Federer to see if he can raise the G.O.A.T stakes again by winning Wimbledon, like he did last year. Only time will tell.

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [4] vs. Dominic Thiem (AUT) [7].
Here are my predictions for the men's final at the 2018 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted Rafael Nadal would defeat Stan Wawrinka in the 2017 final. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men's seminfinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals.


MEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [1] d. Juan Martin del Potro (ARG) [5] 6-4 6-1 6-2.  Surprisingly, this match was less competitive than the match Nadal played against a different Argentine, the diminutive Diego Schwartzman, in the previous round. Del Potro apparently suffered a hip injury midway through the first set and the ruthless Spaniard took advantage of the diminished mobility to punish and pummel Del Potro into submission.


Dominic Thiem (AUT) [7] d. Marco Cecchinato (ITA) 7-5 7-6(10) 6-1. nThis was a surprisingly competitive match between the #8 player in the world and someone barely into the Top 100. That is a strong statement in support of the play of the Italian, who had an almost magical run here in Paris which was just barely stopped before he could reach the final, but not before he has won several hundred thousamd Euros as an unseeded 2018 Roland Garros finalist.

MEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

Thiem is the only player to have won 2 sets on clay against Nadal in the same match in the last three years. He did it twice (2018 Madrid quarterfinals and 2017 Rome quarterfinal) and is clearly the second best clay court player in the world. However, the distance between the best player and the second best is huge, as Nadal has demonstrated time and time again. Nadal joins his nemesis/frenemy Roger Federer in the record books as the second man to play in 11 major finals on the same surface. (Federer has done it at Wimbledon, of course and is 8-3 with 1 loss to Nadal in 2008 and 2 losses to Novak Djkokovic in 2015 and 2016). Nadal is 11-0 in finals (and semifinals!) at Roland Garros and has only ever lost two matches there: 4th round to Robin Soderling in 2009 and in the quarterfinal of 2015.) It's hard to imagine  a more prohibitive favorite than Nadal. Amazingly, it would mean that for the second year n a row Federer and Nadal would have split the first two majors of the year between them.

MadProfessah's pick: Nadal.

Saturday, June 09, 2018

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] vs Sloane Stephens (USA) [10]
Here is my predictions post for the women's final at the 2018 French Open. Last year I incorrectly predicted that Simona Halep would defeat Jelena Ostapenko. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

WOMEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] dGarbiñe Muguruza (ESP) [3] 6-1 6-4.  This was expected to be a tough 3-setter but the World #1 ran away with the first set, doing to Muguruza what she did to Sharapova in her quarterfinal match. The second set was far more competitive, with Muguruza earning an early break but then was unable to maintain the advantage to the end of the set and was broken in the 8th game. The key turning point of the match was the epic 9th game with Halep serving. Muguruza had multiple breakpoints but was unable to convert, despite the fact Halep was missing more than two-thirds of her first serves. However eventually (after 13 minutes) she was able to hold and serving to stay in the match Muguruza faded quickly, succumbing to a love break to lose the set and the match.

Sloane Stephens (USA) [10] d. Madison Keys (USA) [13] 6-4 6-4This was a closer match than their match at the 2017 US Open final, because this time Madison could actually control some of her emotions and was able to show the hard-hitting tennis that makes her one of the most feared opponents on the WTA tour. But her good friend Sloane, who is just two years older (25 instead of 23) appears to be more than 2 year more mature than Madison and this shows in how they treat big matches. Sloane has only lost 1 set in her 6 tour finals she has appeared in, while Madison has only won 3 titles. Despite all that the match score line ended up being relatively close, even if the result of the match never felt much in doubt primarily due to the lack of unforced errors coming off the Sloane racquet compared to the large number Madison was hitting.


WOMEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

For the second time in the last three major tournaments both of these players will be appearing in their secod major final. Sloane at  the 2017 US Open while Halep's was at the 2018 Australian Open. (Halep is also appearing in her 3rd Roland-Garros final). Sloane is definitely the mentally tougher of the two, sporting a perfect 6-0 in WTA tour finals while Halep has a less than stellar 16-14 record in finals. However the two have played 7 times before and Halep leads 5-2. Interestingly, most pundits seem to be giving Stephens the edge in this match up but I'm not so sure. I'll be happy with either player winning, but I think I would be happier if Halep were to finally get that inaugural slam win and cement her standing at the top of the women's game. After all, if she loses her first four major finals that may start reducing the belief that she will actually win one of these eventually. Last year Halep was the prohibitive favorite against Jelena Ostapenko and played like it for a set and a half but when thing started to get tight Halep crumbled and lost after being up a set and a break ahead. I do believe she has learned from these experiences and the fact that Sloane is a known quantity should assist Halep in treating this like a regular tour match, in which case she would win easily. The problem is that it's not just a tour match and as the end of the match approaches I think Halep will have even more difficulty handling the pressure. However, with all that being said, I still give her the edge to (finally) win her first major title. PREDICTION: Halep. 

Thursday, June 07, 2018

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview


Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the 2018 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals1 of 2 women's semifinals4 of 4 men's quarterfinals, and 2 of 2 men's semifinalsThis year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 women's semifinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [1] vs Juan Martin del Potro (ARG) [5].  For the second round in a row the World #1 will be facing off against a player from Argentina. As I predicted before the quarterfinals, diminutive Diego Schwartzman was able to end Nadal's streak of 37 consecutive sets won at Roland Garros that extends back to 2015. In fact for a full set and a half, "Little Diego" outplayed the King of Clay on his home turf of Court Philippe Chatrier. Del Potro continued his dominance of Marin Cilic, extending his head-to-head record to 11 and 2. The decidedly not diminutive Argentine is in his first semifinal at Roland Garros since 2009 as a result and will face Nadal. Interestingly, although the two have played 14 times, Del Potro has a healthy 5 wins. Unfortunately, none of these wins have come on clay (oddly, the two have only met twice on that surface including one straight sets win for Nadal way back in 2007 at Roland Garros). The two have also met a fair number of times in major tournaments (four) and Nadal leads that head-to-head 3-1. In fact, the two met at this stage of the 2017 U.S. Open and Nadal prevailed relatively easily on his way to winning his 16th major title. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Marco Cecchinato (ITA) Novak Djokovic (SRB) [20] vs Dominic Thiem (AUT) [7] In one of the greatest upsets in Grand Slam history, an unheralded and unseeded Italian who had never won a Grand Slam match prior to the beginning of this tournament outplayed and outlasted the 12-time major champion to win in four sets. This result was not due to bad play by Djokovic, it was more of a result of great play by Cecchinato. He is the first Italian male player to reach a major semifinal since 1978. (Of course two Italian female players have won majors in the last decade: Flavia Pennetta won the US Open in 2016 and Fancesca Schiavone won the French Open in 2010.) However now Cecchinato will play the world's second best clay court player in Dominic Thiem, who dispatched an ailing Sascha Zverev in his quarterfinal and is seeking to reach his first major final, at the place where most people think he is most likely to be successful. This will be the Roland-Garros final that we have been expecting for awhile, although it must be said that this is Thiem's third consecutive appearance in the semifinals at Roland-Garros and he is yet to win a set. I'm confident that will change on Friday and Thiem will finally realize his potential to compete for the Coupe des Mousquetaires. Mad Professah's pick: Thiem.

Wednesday, June 06, 2018

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview


Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the 2018 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals1 of 2 women's semifinals4 of 4 men's quarterfinals, and 2 of 2 men's semifinalsThis year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals; I am also going to predict the men's semifinals.

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] vs. Garbiñe Muguruza (ESP) [3]. These two have faced each other 4 times and Muguruza has only lost once; this happened to have been on clay (in 2015). They are facing each other in a major semifinal so of course there is a lot at stake. However, in addition to a berth in the 2018 French Open final, the winner of this match will grab the WTA #1 ranking. Of course, Halep is the current World #1 and is a 2017 French Open finalist so she is trying to defend both of these achievements. Muguruza is a 2-time major champion and won the 2016 French Open title while Halep hasn't won a major title yet but has reached 2 of the last four major finals: 2018 Australian Open and 2017 French Open. Muguruza demolished Maria Sharapova in the previous round, losing only 3 games in just over an hour. Halep was also impressive in her quarterfinal win but in a very different fashion, surviving a 3-hour war of attrition against Angelique Kerber by losing the first set in a tiebreaker and coming back to win the last two sets fairly easily. Muguruza is playing at a very high level, but I believe that Halep has the skills and mental resilience to survive almost anything Muguruza throws at her. PREDICTION: Halep.

Madison Keys (USA) [13] vs. Sloane Stephens (USA) [10].  This is a reprise of the 2017 U.S. Open final. I don't think very many people would have predicted these two players would become the faces of American tennis after the Williams sisters but it is looking like the Keys-Stephens rivalry will be one that will not only be defining American tennis, but very possibly women's tennis, at the very highest level of competition. Curiously the two have only met twice on tour and Stephens has won both matches. An important feature of the 2017 U.S. Open final was the fact that Madison was completely overwhelmed by the occasion and could not  play anywhere near her best tennis and the match turned into a mismatch. I think her coach Lindsay Davenport will be able to prepare her so that this won' happen this time. The problem is that Sloane is simply a better athlete and mover than Madison and this is likely to be rewarded on clay.  Madison is the better server and the (much) harder hitter, so if the match was on grass she would have a distinct advantage, but it's not and she doesn't. PREDICTION: Stephens. 

Tuesday, June 05, 2018

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Quarterfinals Preview (and Predictions)


Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the 2018 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinalsThis year I have also predicted the women's quarterfinals.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [1] vs Diego Schwarztman (ARG) [11].  Schwartzman showed his mettle in the previous round coming back from being hammered  in the first two sets against Kevin Anderson to win in 5 sets. Can the diminutive Schwartzman put an end to Nadal's streak of sets won at Roland Garros? Possibly, yes. Can the Argentine win the match? No. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Marin Cilic (CRO) [3] vs. Juan Martin del Potro (ARG) [5]. Amazing that the one country that has two men in the quarterfinals is not Spain, France or Italy but Argentina! Del Potro is playing excellent tennis, and was very sharp in his straight set dismissal of John Isner in the round before, but Cilic is an even sterner challenge due to his better movement. However, for some reason the head-to-head between these two Big Boys is skewed way in favor of the Argentine. The two have played twelve times and Cilic has only won twice, with 7 consecutive losses sets including all three of their career meetings on clay. Cilic will be motivated to win this match, but his enthusiasm may be dampened realizing that he gets Nadal as a reward. I think this will probably be a tough 4 or 5 set match, which just gives the winner even longer odds against Nadal in the semifinals. Mad Professah's pick: Del Potro.

David Goffin (BEL) [8] Marco Cecchinato (ITA) vs. Novak Djokovic (SRB) [20].  It looks like Djokovic may actually be getting his groove back, even though he is still not back to his colossal form of 2016 (and may never return to that form again). He is a 12-time major champion playing against a first-time major quarterfinalist who has won a handful of Grand Slam matches. Cecchinato did well to take out the very good clay court player David Goffin in the round before. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Dominic Thiem (AUT) [7] vs. Sascha Zverev (GER) [2].  This is the popcorn match of this round. Thiem is widely considered the heir apparent to Nadal on clay and Zverev is the breakout star of the Next Generation cohort, having won 3 ATP Masters Shields before his 21st birthday (by contrast, Del Potro just won his first ATP Master Shield in Indian Wells this year) and has earned his #2 seeding. However, Zverev has played three consecutive 5-set matches to reach his very first major quarterfinal, while Thiem has reached the semifinals of Roland Garros for two consecutive years and is the only player to beat Nadal on clay this year. But that win in Madrid was followed by a relatively straightforward loss to Zverev, so this is not an easy match to call. However, it's hard to see how Zverev has enough to go the full distance with Thiem. However since they both know that isn't it possible Zverev could come out and blast Thiem off the court like he did in Spain? Possibly, but that's awfully hard to do on a clay court. Mad Professah's pick: Thiem.

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