Showing posts with label Lucas Pouille. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lucas Pouille. Show all posts

Sunday, January 27, 2019

2019 AUS OPEN: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)


Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs. Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2]

This is my prediction post for the 2019 Australian Open men's final. Last year I correctly predicted that Roger Federer would beat Marin Cilic in the 2018 Aussie Open men's final.  This year I have correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. I also incorrectly predicted the winner of the 2019 Aussie Open women's final between Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitova.

MEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] d. Lucas Pouille (FRA) [28] 6-0 6-2 6-2. This match demonstrated that the World #1 is playing at a very high level. Pouille is a very good player who although previously had not had very much success in Melbourne in this years tournament he beat Borna Coric and Milos Raonic.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] d. Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRK) [14] 6-2 6-4 6-0. The 21-year-old Greek phenomenon who dispatched 2-time defending champion Roger Federer in four sets really thought that he had a good chance to win against Rafa Nadal and the legendary Spaniard gave the youngster a master class instead. It's pretty unusual to have 6-0 sets in major semifinals (since both players have made it through 5 rounds of play to make it to this level) so it is significant that both Djokovic and Nadal were able to do this to their opponents this year.

MEN'S FINALS PREVIEW

This is the record 53rd meeting between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, and their 8th meeting in a major fnal (Nadal  leads 4-3) while Djokovic leads their overall head-to-head 27-25. The two have played an Australian Open final before, in 2012, and Djokovic prevailed in a nearly 6-hour marathon that left both combatants doubled over in pain during the trophy presentation afterwards. Djokovic has won the Australian Open title 6 times and currently has 14 majors, just 3 behind Nadal's 17 majors (just 1 in Australia and 4 on hard courts). He has also won the last two majors contested (2018 US Open and 2018 Wimbledon) so is on a 20-match grand slam winning streak.  Many people say that Nadal has looked amazing all tournament, and he has not dropped a set reaching the final, but Djokovic has actually spent slightly less time on court (due to a disappointing second set retirement by Kei Nishikori in their quarterfinal match). It should be an amazing matchup, hopefully as high quality as their showdown in the Wimbledon semifinals was last year, where both players were at their best simultaneously. I feel like that if both players are playing their best tennis in Melbourne then Djokovic will come away the winner. MadProfessah's pick: Djokovic.

Thursday, January 24, 2019

2019 AUS OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview




Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the 2019 Australian Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals and 2 of 2 men's semifinals. This year I have correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and  correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Lucas Pouille (FRA) [28].  World #1 Novak Djokovic had a mismatch with Kei Nishikori to reach his seventh semifinal in Melbourne while Lucas Pouille is playing in his first major semifinal of his career. In fact, Pouille was 0-5 at the Australian Open and has now won 5 matches in a  row at the tournament. Surprisingly, the two have never met on tour so  there's no head-to-head influence a prediction here. There's no question that Pouille could beat Djokovic, but will he? Very unlikely. In fact, Djokovic has always won the title in Melbourne (six so far) when he reaches this level of the tournament. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) [14] vs Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2]. 20-year-old Stefanos Tsitsipas has already had a dramatic impact on the tournament by defeating 2-time defending champion Roger Federer in the 4th round. He was able to follow up that huge win without a letdown by defeating Roberto Bautista Agut in the quarterfinal. Because of that he has to face 17-time major champion Rafael Nadal, who took out another #NextGen player in Francis Tiafoe in the quarterfinal. The two have already played twice and Nadal won both matches, relatively easily in 2018. Even though Tstsipas is already better than he was last year, I still don't see how anyone prevents another Djokovic-Nadal final. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Monday, January 21, 2019

2019 AUS OPEN: Men's Quarterfinals Preview (and Predictions)


Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the Australian Open for 2019.  I will also predict the women's quarterfinals.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Kei Nishikori (JPN) [8].  Nishikori has had an incredibly rough path to get to his 3rd consecutive major quarterfinal (and tenth overall). Three of the four rounds at this year's Australian Open have been 5-set matches and two of those have been decided by a final set 10-point super tiebreaker where Kei has been substantially behind but ended up getting to 10 points first. Since Djokovic has won the last two majors (2018 Wimbledon d. Kevin Anderson and 2018 U.S. Open d. Juan Martin del Potro) and is a 6-time winner in Melbourne he is widely viewed as the prohibitive favorite to win the 2019 Australian Open. However, he has not been winning as convincingly as one would expect from the World's #1, dropping a set in each of his matches against #NextGen opponents Denis Shapovalov and Daniil Medvedev. That being said, Djokovic has an overwhelming 15-2 head-to-head advantage against his quarterfinal opponent and must be considered a favorite to reach his 7th Australian Open final. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Sascha Zverev (GER) [4] Milos Raonic (CAN) [16] vs Borna Coric (CRO) [11] Lucas Pouille (FRA) [28].  Lucas Pouille  had never won a match at the Australian Open before this year despite playing it every year since 2014. Now, with Amelie Mauresmo as his coach he has won four in a row, taking out another #NextGen member in Borna Coric to reach his first major quarterfinal in three years (and the 3rd in his career). His opponent will not be the World #4 but instead will be the resurgent Milos Raonic who is trying to return to the top of men's tennis after an injury that took him out of  contention for most of 2018. Sascha Zverev has been one of the surprising disappointments in the men's game despite winning the biggest title of his career (the 2018 ATP Tour Championships) by defeating Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer along the way. Zverev won only two games in the first two sets before demolishing his racket and the third set was a tight affair but Raonic won the tiebreaker and the match. Interestingly, Raonic is 3-0 against Pouille, including a win on grass last year so he should go into this match-up with a lot of confidence, and the experience of playing in his 9th career quarterfinal (3-5 record). Mad Professah's pick: Raonic.

Marin Cilic (CRO) [6] Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) [22] vs Roger Federer (SUI) [3] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) [14]. Roberto Bautista Agut (or RBA as everyone calls him) has yet to lose a match in 2019, and is playing some of the best tennis of his life. He has an incredibly difficult draw, but has made it this far. Some of the scalps he has collected in Melbourne include Sir Andrew Murray's, 2018 Australian Open finalist Marin Cilic, and the highest ranked #NextGen player Karen Khachanov. However, he may have met his match in the brilliant Stefanos Tsitsipas who took out Roger Federer, the 2017 and 2018 champion, in four scintillating sets. The 20-year-old Greek has a big game and the maturity of some years his senior so I would not expect a mental let down despite the task of building on his paradigm-shifting win. Mad Professah's pick: Tsistipas.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] vs Francis Tiafoe (USA).  No one really has expected Nadal to do well here because his record in hard court tournaments is so hit or miss. However, it should not be forgotten that he has won the US Open three times (2010, 2013, 2017) and the Australian Open once (2009) and reached the final here three other times (2012, 2014 and 2017). But the Spaniard has yet to drop a set in four rounds of play, which bodes well for his ability to go late in the tournament. His opponent will be 21-year-old Francis Tiafoe playing in his very first major qurtaerfinal, and the first time he has been the last American remaining in a grand slam draw. Tiafoe has already taken out two very good hard court players in Kevin Anderson and Grigor Dimitrov but there's nothing that prepares one for the tenacity and power of Nadal. Surprisingly, the two have never played before and that might give Tiafoe a chance to make some inroads, but I would be surprised if he wins a set. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

TENNIS TUESDAY: Croatia Wins (Last?) Davis Cup, Beats France 3-1; Venus Settles; Radwanska Retires; Kerber Picks Schuettler, Halep Picks No One!


CROATIA DEFEATS FRANCE 3-1 TO WIN 2018 DAVIS CUP FINAL
The 2018 Davis Cup was won by Croatia, somewhat surprisingly defeating France 3-1, who was the defending champion (beating Belgium last year). There was extra attention on this year's Davis Cup because tennis is being roiled by the changes to the format of the Davis Cup and the creation of two(!) new team competitions: the Laver Cup (an exhibition competition that happens a few weekends after the conclusion of the US Open primarily associated with Roger Federer and based on a Europe versus The World concept) and now the ATP and Tennis Australia have announced the ATP Cup which is scheduled to start in January 2020 before the Australian Open. The ATP Cup will be a 24-team competition of 6 groups of 4 played in 3 Australian cities over 10 days.
Marin Cilic was the tie's hero, beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on Friday in straight sets and followed that up with a straight sets win over Lucas Pouille on the final day to win Croatia's 3rd point after Borna Coric easly dismissed Jeremy Chardy in straight sets on the first day. It's not clear why France's other stars (Gael Monfils, Richard Gasquet or Gilles Simon) did not participate in the Davis Cup Final this year. The one bright spot for France was their win in the doubles as Pierre-Hughes Hebert and Nicolas Mahut won their match.

AGNIESZKA RADWANSKA RETIRES FROM TENNIS AT AGE 29
The Polish tennis superstar Aggie Radwanska announced her retirement from the sport at the age of 29, ranked World #75. However, between 2008 and 2016 she was ranked in the Top 15 (rising as high as World #2) and won the WTA Fan Favorite award 6 years in a row. In 2012 she won the middle set against Serena Williams in the Wimbledon final but lost the match.

VENUS SETTLES WRONGFUL DEATH LAWSUIT WHERE SHE HAD NO FAULT
Venus Williams announced that she had settled a lawsuit filed by the estate of a man who had died in a car accident in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida where Williams was an unwilling and faultless participant. The settlement terms were not disclosed.

KERBER PICKS NEW COACH RAINER SCHUETTLER, HALEP PICKS NO-ONE
The end-of-season coaching merry-go-round continues with World #1 Simona Halep deciding not pick a replacement coach for Darren Cahill who said that he has decided to reduce his travel commitments in 2019 to spend more time with his family. Despite winning Wimbledon with Wim Fisette this year, Angelique Kerber has dismissed him and hired with former ATP Top 10 player Rainer Schuettler as her new coach.

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

TENNIS TUESDAY: Federer Has 1st 2018 Loss; Delpo Wins 1st Masters; Osaka Wins 1st Title, Will Face Serena 1R in Miami



OSAKA WINS NEXT GEN BATTLE WITH KASATKINA FOR INDIAN WELLS CROWN
Defying my prediction to the contrary, Naomi Osaka of Japan defeated Daria Kasatkina 6-3 6-2 to win her first WTA tour title on the big stage of the BNP Paribas Open. Both players had impressive runs to reach with final, with Osaka taking out World #1 Simona Halep, former World #1 Karolina Pliskova and 5-time major champion Maria Sharapova (in round 1!). Kasatkina took out 4 major champions in a row Venus Williams, Angelique Kerber, 2018 Aussie Open champ Caroline Wozniacki and 2017 US Open champ Sloane Stephens!

JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO WINS 1st ATP MASTER TITLE OVER FEDERER
In one of the best matches of the year, Juan Martin del Potro of Argentina demonstrated his fearlessness against Roger Federer by outlasting him 6-4 6-7(8) 7-6(2). This was the 25th match the two have played and is Delpo's 7th win, which have often come in the finals of tournaments (Delpo leads 4-2). Delpo saved an amazing 3 match points (and Federer saved 2 himself) to beat the World #1 and win his first Masters series title after playing in 4 finals (interesting he lost these finals to the other members of the big 4: Nadal, Murray and Djokovic). At 7, Delpo has more wins against World #1 players than any other player who has not become World #1 themself.

OSAKA WILL FACE SERENA WILLIAMS IN FIRST ROUND OF MIAMI OPEN
Osaka's prize for winning Indian Wells? In addition to doubling her career prize money with a $1.3 million check she was drawn to face 8-time Miami Open champion Serena Williams in the first round. Serena lost to sister Venus last week, will she now lose to Osaka this week? I think she might, but my prediction mojo has been weak recently. If she does lose, I do think it will provide excellent motivation for Serena to double her efforts to reach top shape sooner rather than later.

FEDERER LOSES 1ST MATCH OF 2018 (DESPITE HAVING MATCH POINTS)
After eking out a win against Borna Coric to reach his 17th win of 2018, Federer was not able to do so against Juan Martin del Potro despite actually playing better and having more chances to win in the final. He lost a 3rd set tiebreaker and is now a dismal 1-7 in championship-deciding tiebreaks for his career. His 5th set record is not great either. The reason for this (many believe) is that even though Federer is the greatest player of all time, he so rarely is put in positions where he has to REALLY fight in high stakes situations that he has less experience and is less suited to performing his best when it happens. Still, a 17-1 record to start 2018 must be something Federer is happy with; at age 36 he is tied with most wins on tour this year. Interestingly, Juan Martin del Potro is 17-3 for 2018 and Dominc Thiem is 17-4.

ATP RANKINGS MOVERS: DEL POTRO, ANDERSON, POUILLEFederer remains #1 despite not defending his title at Indian Wells and will need to defend his title in Miami if he is to keep the #1 ranking for the entire clay court season. Del Potro is now at World #6, Kevin Anderson is pu to World #8 and Frenchman Lucas Pouille enters the Top 10 for the first time at #10.

WTA RANKINGS MOVERS: OSTAPENKO, KASATKINA, OSAKA, VICKERY
2017 French Open champion Jelena "Alona" Ostapenko is at #5 while Kasatkina is just outside the Top 10 at #11 (career high) and Osaka cut her ranking in half to a career high of World #22. 22-year-old  African-American Sachia Vickery ousted Garbine Mugruza before losing to Osaka and is now up to World #89.

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

TENNIS TUESDAY: WTA & ATP Year-End Rankings; France Wins Davis Cup


FRANCE WINS DAVIS CUP BY DEFEATING BELGIUM 3-2
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Lucas Pouille, Richard Gasquet and Pierre-Hugues Herbert all contributed to France's win over Belgium in the 2017 Davis Cup final. The most important win was Pouille's over Belgium's Steven Darcis in the live fifth rubber after David Goffin defeated Gasquet and Tsonga in the singles matches but Herbert and Gasquet teamed up to win the crucial doubles point. This was France's 10th Davis Cup win and its first since 2001 after losing in the final in 2010 to Serbia and 2014 to Switzerland.


END OF YEAR ATP RANKINGS



END OF YEAR WTA RANKINGS

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

TENNIS TUESDAY: Serena 35; Davis Cup Final #ARGCRO; Kvitova,Berdych Win Titles; #NextGen Breaks Thru; Sharapova Ban Reduced To 15 Months


SERENA TURNS 35!
On September 26, 22-major champion Serena Williams turned 35 years old. Although she is no longer the #1 ranked player in the world, she is still a formidable force in tennis. She is more focused on chasing tennis history as she seeks to break her tie with Steffi Graf's for the most major singles titles in the Open era. The question is will she even play a match for the rest of the year? She has pulled out of the Asian swing, but not the year-end championships in Singapore, yet.

DAVIS CUP FINAL SET: ARGENTINA VERSUS CROATIA, AFTER BEATING GREAT BRITAIN & FRANCE
Juan Martin del Potro and Andy Murray had an epic first rubber match which ended up being the decider in which of their countries would reach the Davis Cup final for 2016. Del Potro won the 5-hour, high-quality match 6-4, 5-7, 6-7 (5), 6-3, 6-4. Murray was able to win two points for his team in the tie but the rest of the team  was unable to contribute (apart from his brother in the doubles). Argentina will face Croatia in the final after Marin Cilic and Ivan Dodig paired up and defeated the #1 doubles team in the world, Pierre-Hughes Herbert and Nicolas Mahut and Cilic was able to win both his singles matches, beating Richard Gasquet and Lucas Pouille relatively easily (losing one set and winning 6). The Davis Cup final will be in Zagreb, Croatia November 25-27.

CZECH MATE! KVITOVA AND BERDYCH WIN 1ST TITLES OF 2016 IN ASIA
When she's on, she's very on. In Wuhan Petra Kvitova played two of her best matches in a row all-year long to blast through Simona Halep in the semis and Dominka Cibulkova in the final after earlier outlasting World #1 Angie Kerber in a 3-hour 3-set epic. Kvitova lost just 5 games in four sets in the last two rounds to win her first title of the year. Fellow Czech also salvaged his 2016 season by outlasting Richard Gasquet in 3 sets to win the Shenzhen Open, just 5 weeks after having surgery to remove his appendix, which caused him to skip the US Open.

#NEXTGEN BREAKTHROUGH: KHACHANOV, ZVEREV, POUILLE WIN TITLES
20-year old Karen Khachanov, 19-year-old Sascha Zverev and 22-year-old Lucas Pouille all won their first ATP tour titles recently. Khachanov beat Alberto Ramos-Vinolas in Chengdu, while Zverev beat reigning US Open champion Stan Wawrinka in St. Petersburg and Pouille beat fellow #NextGen Dominc Thiem in Metz. The most impressive of these wins is Zverev, since not only is he the youngest of the three but he beat the toughest competition. However, Pouille is the highest ranked of the bunch at #16, but Zverev is not that far behind at #24.

SHARAPOVA SUSPENSION REDUCED TO 15 MONTHS ON APPEAL; COULD PLAY 2017 FRENCH OPEN
The result of Maria Sharapova's appeal of her 2-year-suspension for using a banned substance (meldonium) was announced just minutes ago. Her ban has been reduced to 15 months, and since she has not played since January 2016 (the end of the Australian Open), she could be on court in time fo the 2017 clay court season and play in Madrid, Rome and Paris. It was very possible if the fine had not been reduced, then the 5-time major champion would have announced her retirement. It will be interesting to see how a then 30-year-old Maria will fare against the likes of Kerber, Pliskova and Muguruza after such a long absence.

Friday, September 09, 2016

2016 US OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview


Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the US Open for 2016. Last year I correctly predicted 0 of 2 women's semifinals and correctly predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals. So far this year, I have correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals and 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals. I also predicted the women's semifinals this year.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1]
 vs Gael Monfils (FRA) [10].  This is Gael Monfils' first major semifinal since 2008 (and only the second major semifinal of his career) while this is Novak Djokovic's 10th consecutive year he has made the semifinals of the U.S. Open (and his 31st career major semifinal). Head-to-head this is their thirteenth meeting and the Frenchman has lost every single encounter, and only their very first meeting, way back in 2005, was their only competitive match at a major (where they have played three times). However, this should not detract from Monfils' achievement. Now 30-years-old, Monfils has been playing some of his best tennis all year long. He won a rare title in Washington DC (over Ivo Karlovic) and at this year's U.S. Open Monfils is yet to lose a set through 5 rounds of play. This streak is almost certain to end in the semifinals. However, this is sports, and  anything can happen. With Andy Murray's departure from the tournament, perhaps Djokovic will get tight realizing that since he has a combined 41-6 record against the remaining players in the draw (12-0 Monfils, 10-2 Nishikori, 19-4 Wawrinka) in order to win his 13th  major title and reach the 3rd highest total of all-time, behind Roger Federer (17), Pete Sampras (14), Rafa Nadal 14). Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Stan Wawrinka (SUI) [3] vs Andy Murray (SUI) [2] Kei Nishikori (JPN) [6].   I did not expect either of these players to reach this semifinal; since I saw both Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori up close when I visited the U.S. Open on Labor Day I was very surprised that these two would be able to get past crowd favorites Juan Martin del Potro and Andy Murray, respectively. Both Nishikori have previously upended expectations. Nishikori did it at this very tournament two years ago, when he beat Wawrinka, Milos Raonic and Novak Djokovic to reach the final (and lose to Marin Cilic).  Wawrinka has also confounded expectations and broken through the trivalry at the top of men's tennis twice before, winning the 2014 Australia Open (d. Nadal) and the 2015 French Open (d. Djokovic). Can he now win his third major in three years? It's very possible. The head-to-head between Wawrinka and Nishikori is 3-2 in the Swiss player's favor. It is notable that Nishikori beat Wawrinka on his way to reaching the final here two years ago, but he has also lost to him in the 2015 Australian Open. On hard courts the two are evenly matched. The knock on Nishikori is that there is doubt that his body can take the repeated pounding of consecutive crushing 5-set matches, and he played a humdinger against Murray, winning 7-5 in the 5th set in just under 4 hours. Mad Professah's pick: Wawrinka.

Tuesday, September 06, 2016

2016 US OPEN: Men's Quarterfinal's Preview


Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the US Open for 2016. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals. This year I have also predicted the women's quarterfinals.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) [9].  These two have played some very important matches against each other (2008 Australian Open Final, 2010 Australian Open Quarterfinal, 2011 Wimbledon Semifinal, 2012 Roland Garros Quarterfinal) with Djokovic almost always prevailing, and he leads their overall head to head 15-6 and  5-1 in majors (the only loss was the 2010 Australian Open quarterfinal). Since Djokovic reached his peak in 2011 and 2015 the matches with Tsonga more often than not have not even been that competitive. There are some lingering doubts about the World #1's form, but those are basically based on the fact that he's been extremely lucky in having opponents retire or withdraw and so has really only played two-and-a-half matches to reach the quarterfinal of  a major. But, to me, that makes him more of a threat to win his 13th major title, not less of one. Then again, He has only won the title here in New York twice (in those two outstanding years) so I would not say he is the favorite right now even though he is the #1 seed. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Lucas Pouille (FRA) [24] vs Gael Monfils (FRA) [10].  This all-French quarterfinal is a result of an amazing effort by the 22-year-old Frenchman, who made a splash at Wimbledon this year by reaching his first major quarterfinal there but has really heralded his arrival as a Top 10 contender by defeating Rafael Nadal in a 5th set tiebreak which everyone is describing as the best match of the tournament. That being said, he has played a LOT of tennis in New York City this week and he will be playing Gael Monfils, a countryman who is well-rested, having not dropped a set in the entire tournament. Matches between players from the same country can often be nervy, low-quality affairs (c.f. Clijsters-Henin, Jankovic-Ivanovic, Nadal-Ferrer, Isner-Sock) and I suspect that will be the case here. However, you can also get 5-set thrillers, like the one John Isner and Donald Young played in the first round here this year. Monfils and Pouille have only met one on the ATP tour: in the first round f this year's Australian Open, and the match was won by Monfils in 5 sets. It's amazing that there could be another French men's finalist at the U.S. Open for the first time since Cedric Pioline did it in 1993. The only problem is that for that to happen, a French player needs to beat Novak Djokovic, and the Serbian has only lost one match to a Frenchman in the last 3 years. Mad Professah's pick: Monfils.

Stan Wawrinka (SUI) [3] vs Dominic Thiem (GBR) [3] Juan Martin del Potro (ARG). Now this is a compelling match-up, and should be the standout match of the 4 quarterfinals. It's the only meeting between two major champions, and Del Potro is slowly coming back to his own and figuring out how to be effective with his restructure game built around his refurbished wrists. The reason why the 6-foor-6 Argentine won his first  major  at the tender age of 20 (by beating Roger Federer and Nadal along the way) was because he has it all: huge serves, amazing movement for a big guy and blistering groundstrokes, especially the forehand side. However, his backhand is now almost exclusively slice, and I think that Wawrinka will be able to take advantage of that on Arthur Ashe in a way that he could not at his 1st round loss to Del Potro at Wimbledon earlier this summer. However, it really is quite significant that del Potro leads their head to head 4-2 and has won their last  four meetings, including two since Wawrinka became a major champion and Del Potro returned from his injury timeout. I was courtside for Wawrinka's 4th set win against a very stubborn Ilya Marchenko and witnessed the Swiss' fragility. Del Potro is a big step up in class and I'm not sure Wawrinka is ready for that. So,  on paper I would give the slight edge to Wawrinka, but  based on his heart and hunger I give the overall edge to Del Potro. Mad Professah's pick: Del Potro.

Andy Murray (SUI) [2] vs Kei Nishikori (JPN) [6].  From their rankings one would think this would be the most competitive of the quarterfinals, but  I have already awarded that title to the Del Potro-Wawrinka match, primarily because of the lopsided head-to-head between Nishikori and Murray. The Scot leads 7-1 with the one loss coming in the 2014 World Tour Finals which Murray shouldn't even have entered because he was not fully recovered from back surgery. However, I saw Nishikori's vocal fan support first hand when he played Ivo Karlovic in his 4th round match so it's possible that he could make this match competitive. He did reach the final here two years ago beating players like Milos Raonic, Stan Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic along the way. There's no sign that Kei is on another hot streak like in 2014, while it is very clear that Murray is playing at or near the every peak of his powers, having reached three major finals this year and with a very good chance to reach his 4th. Mad Professah's pick: Murray.

Monday, September 05, 2016

2016 US OPEN: #Fedal Era Officially Ends As Pouille Nips Nadal In 5th Set TB R16 Win


Wow! In one of the best matches of the year, 22-year-old Frenchman Lucas Pouille heralded the final death knell for the "Big Four" era by eliminating 14-time major champion Rafael Nadal in the 4th round of the 2016 US Open in a thrilling 5-set, 4-hour affair. The score was 6-1 2-6 6-4 3-6 7-6(6). With 17-time major champion Roger Federer out for half the year rehabbing a knee injury neither Federer or Nadal reached a major final this year. In fact, Nadal has only reached 2 major quarterfinals in his last 10 major appearance dating back to 2014  Wimbledon. Federer reached (and lost) 3 major finals in the same time period. In contrast, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic have each made the QF or better in 9 of the last 10 majors they competed in, with Djokivic's loss coming at the 2016 Wimbledon (to Sam Querrey in the 3rd Round) and Murray's here last year to Kevin Anderson (I saw that match in person!) in the 4th round. The two played against each other in the first two major finals of the year and then Murray won Wimbledon for the second time so it's becoming clear the Big Four era is now over and the era of Djokovic-Murray has begun, with the next generation battling to see if they can break through.

Pouille became the third French player to reach the final 8 of the 2016 US Open, reaching his career first major quarterfinal. He joins his countrymen Gael Monfils and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the first time France has had 3 quarterfinalists in the major era (which is somewhat surprising considering they have had 4 separate Top 10 players in the last decade: Gilles Simon, Richard Gasquet and Tsonga and Monfils).

Pouille's match against Nadal was an astonishing performance, especially since it was Pouille's 3rd consecutive 5-set match, and despite bludgeoning Nadal off the court in a smoking 6-1 opening set in about a half-hour and after losing the second set 2-6, he squeezed out the 3rd set 6-4. However, after losing the 4th set 6-3, Pouille fell behind 0-2, 1-3 and 2-4 in the final set until he finally came back to break at 4-all and both players held serve to reach the 5th set tiebreak (which should be mandatory in all slams!) Pouille played an awful first point but then won 4 consecutive points to go up 4-1, but Nadal fought back and despite going down 3-6, the Spaniard was able to level the match at 6-all when he made a horrofying forehand error into the next, giving Pouille his 4th match point (on Nadal's serve) and after a tense groundstroke battle Nadal was forced into an error and lost the match.

I was in the crowd of tens of thousands of people waiting for Nadal's match to end the the day session before the night session began. There were few cheers when Nadal lost, but even his fans could appreciate the high level of tennis played and the effort it took for Pouille to complete the stunning upset in his very first time playing on the renovated Arthur Ashe, tennis' biggest stage.

Friday, July 08, 2016

2016 WIMBLEDON: Men's Semifinals Preview


Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2016. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals and correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals. This year I have correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals. I also predicted this year's women's semifinals.

Roger Federer (SUI) [3] vs. Milos Raonic (CAN) [6]. The 17-time major champion is very lucky to be still in the hunt for his record 8th Wimbledon title. He went down by 2 sets to none against 2014 U.S. Open champion Marin Cilic. After falling into a perilous situation (2-3, 0-40) in the third set, Federer was able to miraculously hold serve and was finally able to break Cilic's serve and run away with the third set. However, in the fourth set things were extremely tense with respective service holds until the tiebreak. In the tiebreak, Cilic had two match points and Federer had multiple set points and eventually won the fourth set tiebreak 11-9. Raonic had a much easier time in his quarterfinal, dispatching the giantkiller Sam Querrey in four sets. The Canadian has made his intentions of trying to win Wimbledon crystal clear with his hiring of John McEnroe for the grass court season. Interestingly, this semifinal is a repeat of the 2014 Wimbledon semifinal, which was won (relatively) easily by Federer in three tight sets (6-4 6-4 6-4). Overall, Federer has a 9-2 career head-to-head over his opponent, but Raonic won their last meeting, in the Bribane final earlier this year. I still think Federer has not shown his best tennis at Wimbledon this year yet, but I believe he will rise to the occasion, and will need to do so, in order to reach his record 11th Wimbledon final on Sunday.  PREDICTION: Federer.

Andy Murray (GBR) [2] vs. Tomas Berdych (CZE) [10] Jiri Vesely (CZE). For the first time, Andy Murray is the favorite at a major tournament, as the highest remaining seed. This is a very different situation, since this is occurring at Wimbledon, a tournament he has won before, and which is his home slam. Murray had a tougher than expected tussle with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in their quarterfinal, after winning the first two sets, the Frenchman came back and won the next two sets and raised the possibility of upsetting Murray. However, Murray dug deep and won the fifth and final set very easily, 6-1. In the semifinal, he will face Tomas Berdych who has excellent grass court bona fides (as a 2010 Wimbledon finalist). However, despite having a relatively close overall head to head of 8-6 between the two players in the favor of Murray, no one expects him to have much difficulty winning this match. In their recent meetings, Murray has won  pretty easily and even though the two have never met on grass, there is every expectation that the Briton will reach his 2nd Wimbledon final, and 11th career major final. PREDICTION: Murray.

Tuesday, July 05, 2016

2016 WIMBLEDON: Men's Quarterfinals Preview


Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2016. Last year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals. I will also predict this year's women's quarterfinals.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] Sam Querrey (USA) [28] vs. Milos Raonic (CAN) [6]. After accomplishing the biggest upset of the year by defeating 2-time defending champion Novak Djokovic in the previous round, Sam Querrey followed this up by defeating Nicolas Mahut, a grass-court specialist, to reach his first major quarterfinal. The Canadian Missile also had to traverse uncharted territory to reach this position, after dropping the first two sets to Belgian David Goffin, Raonic did not panic, but just concentrated on using his 130+ MPH serving ability to help him hold his serve and hunkered down to try and win the last three sets of the match. This was the first time in ten attempts that Raonic had been down 0-2 in sets and this was the first time that he was able to come back (in all the other matches he had lost in straight sets). Surprisingly, Querrey has a 3-1 head-to-head advantage over Raonic including a 4-set win at the 2012 Wimbledon, but the two have not met in the last three years, and certainly not since Raonic became a top 10 player. By adding John McEnroe to his coaching team, Raonic has signaled his intent to claim this title, and with Djokovic removed from the equation, this is a near golden opportunity for him, one everyone around him will recognize and want to take advantage of.  PREDICTION: Raonic.

Roger Federer (SUI) [3] vs. Marin Cilic (CRO) [9] Kei Nishikori (JPN) [5]. Sadly, the mouthwatering reprise of the 2014 US Open final ended up being a bust when a clearly injured Nishikori was only able to put up token resistance and  gave up before completing two sets. So, this gives us a reprise of the 2014 US Open semifinal, which is the last time these two met in competition, and the result was Cilic basically blasting Federer off the court. Can he do so again? Possibly. But Center Court Wimbledon is very different from Arthur Ashe stadium. Federer has always handled big servers well, but Cilic also moves exceedingly well for a 6-foot-6 man. However, I have to believe that Federer has planned all year for just this moment, and will be properly prepared to optimize his chances of winning this match (and the next two). That being said, I seriously doubt this will be a straight sets win (in either direction), and I do worry about the impact of a long, physical affair on Federer's chances. However, there's a reason he has reached 14 quarterfinals and 10 finals (and semifinals) at this tournament in his career. I think he will reach #11 this year. PREDICTION: Federer.

Stan Wawrinka (SUI) [4] Lucas Pouille (FRA) [32] vs. Tomas Berdych (CZE) [10] Jiri Vesely (CZE). The "Next Generation" players that have been getting the most buzz all year are players like Sascha Zverev (19), Dominc Thiem (22) Taylor Fritz (18) and Borna Coric (19) but here on the grass courts of Wimbledon the two youngsters that have made the loudest impression on the draw are two 22-year-olds: Lucas Pouille from France and the Jiri Vesely from Czech Republic. Pouille is playing in only his second main draw in Wimbledon and he has reached his first major quarterfinal by eliminating Juan Martin del Potro (after the Argentine took out Stan Wawrinka) and Bernard Tomic. Vesely impressed earlier in the year, handing World #1 Novak Djokovic a defeat on clay in Monte Carlo but he also impressed here in Wimbledon by forcing a 5th set in his fourth round match with countryman Tomas Berdych after losing the first two sets, saving 5 match points in the process. I don't expect that to change on Wednesday. These two have never played before, but despite Berdych's emotionally draining previous round, he has the experience of being here before, and the confidence of knowing he has reached the final here before (in 2010). Pouille is talented, but is he that talented to win his first major quarterfinal? Perhaps, After all, Thiem did it in Paris a few weeks ago. But I'm doubtful that feat will be repeated here. PREDICTION: Berdych.

Andy Murray (GBR) [2] vs. Richard Gasquet (FRA) [7] Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) [12]. Tsonga is very lucky to be in this position. He was down 2 sets to none against John Isner in the 3rd round late on Saturday when he won a 3rd set tiebreak and eventually was able to even up the match by winning the fourth. He was serving second in the fifth set so eventually every breakpoint became a match point and yet he was able to save them and eventually broke Isner's serve and successfully served it out to win the fifth set by the ridiculous score of 19-17. Then his countryman Richard Gasquet gave him a gift by retiring after playing a mere six games to allow him to reach another quarterfinal here at the All-England Club.  Unfortunately, he is playing someone whom he has a 2-12 head-to-head record against, and has really only been able to beat when playing his very best tennis (i.e. 2008 Australian Open and 2014 Rogers Cup in Montreal) and it is very unlikely that will not be the case on Wednesday. In fact, I would be very surprised if Murray lost a set, but I suspect atleast two of the sets will be very tight, single service-break or tiebreak affairs. PREDICTION: Murray.

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