2019 AUS OPEN: Djokovic Wins 15th Major, Record 7th Aussie Title

As expected, World #1 Novak Djokovic defeated World #2 Rafael Nadal to win his record 7th Australian Open title, his 15th major and 3rd consecutive. This was the pair's 53rd meeting 8th in a major final and Nadal's first straight sets loss 6-3 6-2 6-3 ever in a major final. Djokovic had an astonishing 9 unforced errors in 3 sets (26 games) to Nadal's 28. Djokovic is now 7-0 in Australian Open finals and 15-9 in major finals, compared to Roger Federer's 20-10 and Nadal's 17-8 records.

Many people had predicted Djokovic would win, but no one predicted that he would demolish his rival so completely. The last time they played in the Australian Open finals, 7 years ago in 2012, the match was a 5-set classic that lasted nearly 6 hours! The win places Djokovic just two behind Nadal and now 5 behind Federer, and gives him another chance at the Nole Slam if he wins the French Open this year, which is very possible, if not likely.

2019 AUS OPEN: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs. Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2]

This is my prediction post for the 2019 Australian Open men's final. Last year I correctly predicted that Roger Federer would beat Marin Cilic in the 2018 Aussie Open men's final.  This year I have correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. I also incorrectly predicted the winner of the 2019 Aussie Open women's final between Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitova.

MEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] d. Lucas Pouille (FRA) [28] 6-0 6-2 6-2. This match demonstrated that the World #1 is playing at a very high level. Pouille is a very good player who although previously had not had very much success in Melbourne in this years tournament he beat Borna Coric and Milos Raonic.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] d. Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRK) [14] 6-2 6-4 6-0. The 21-year-old Greek phenomenon who dispatched 2-time defending champion Roger Federer in four sets really thought that he had a good chance to win against Rafa Nadal and the legendary Spaniard gave the youngster a master class instead. It's pretty unusual to have 6-0 sets in major semifinals (since both players have made it through 5 rounds of play to make it to this level) so it is significant that both Djokovic and Nadal were able to do this to their opponents this year.

MEN'S FINALS PREVIEW

This is the record 53rd meeting between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, and their 8th meeting in a major fnal (Nadal  leads 4-3) while Djokovic leads their overall head-to-head 27-25. The two have played an Australian Open final before, in 2012, and Djokovic prevailed in a nearly 6-hour marathon that left both combatants doubled over in pain during the trophy presentation afterwards. Djokovic has won the Australian Open title 6 times and currently has 14 majors, just 3 behind Nadal's 17 majors (just 1 in Australia and 4 on hard courts). He has also won the last two majors contested (2018 US Open and 2018 Wimbledon) so is on a 20-match grand slam winning streak.  Many people say that Nadal has looked amazing all tournament, and he has not dropped a set reaching the final, but Djokovic has actually spent slightly less time on court (due to a disappointing second set retirement by Kei Nishikori in their quarterfinal match). It should be an amazing matchup, hopefully as high quality as their showdown in the Wimbledon semifinals was last year, where both players were at their best simultaneously. I feel like that if both players are playing their best tennis in Melbourne then Djokovic will come away the winner. MadProfessah's pick: Djokovic.

2019 AUS OPEN: Osaka Wins 2nd Major Title And Reaches WTA #1

Despite my prediction to the contrary, Naomi Osaka defeated Petra Kvitova 7-6(2) 5-7 6-4 to win the 2019 Australian Open singles title, her second consecutive major title at the tender age of 21. Additionally, with the win Osaka will assume the top ranking on the women's tour on Monday, becoming the first player of Asian descent, male or female to reach World #1. Kvitova will be World #2.

How The Match Was Won

The first set was a high quality affair, with both players hitting their marks on their serve and defending break points well. To me this, was where I started to doubt that Kvitova would win the match, when in the 7th game Osaka went down 0-40 but was able to save all 3 breakpoints, primarily from missed service returns. As one of the commentators said, Kvitova wasn't playing the scoreboard well. She was consistently going for too much on important points and often missing. In some sense, it takes guts to continue going for her shots instead of playing it safe, so maybe there was no way she was going to win this match playing at the level she had access to on that day. To me, it was clear that this was not the Peak Petra that we had previously seen in her two appearance in major finals. Osaka raised her game at exactly the right time, and ended up winning the tiebreaker 7-2.

In the second set, Kvitova went up an early break but Osaka was able to break back immediately and snatched the momentum to win 4 games in a row and eventually earned three consecutive match points as Kvitova served to stay in the match 3-5. Astonishingly, Kvitova started playing some of her best tennis at this point and saved all three match points. When Osaka went to serve for the championship she was promptly broken before she had a championship point on her own serve and the momentum had clearly switched. Osaka had a full meltdown and ended up double faulting on set point to lose the second set 5-7.

In the third set, Osaka recovered from her meltdown and stoically played solid and powerful tennis while Kvitova couldn't maintain the momentum from winning the second set and eventually was broken in her second service game. Osaka didn't look back from there and this time when she served for the championship she reached triple championship point, and eventually won the match and the title on her 5th match point.

Implications Of The Win

Osaka became the first player, male or female, to win their first two consecutive major titles since Jennifer Capriati won the 2001 Australian Open and French Open. The Japanese player became the first female player since Serena Williams to win back-to-back major titles in 2003 on her way to her first Serena Slam. By reaching World #1 at age 21 and winning 2 major finals Osaka assures that she will be entered into the Tennis Hall of Fame. In fact, many observers are suggesting that her ascendance marks a phase change at the top of woman's tennis, where it is now conceivable that even if Serena Williams were to play her very best tennis, she may not win against Osaka.

2019 AUS OPEN: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Naomi Osaka (JPN) [4] vs. Petra Kvitova (CZE) [8]

This is my prediction post for the 2019 Australian Open women's final. Last year I incorrectly predicted that Simona Halep would beat Caroline Wozniacki in the 2018 Aussie Open women's final.  This year I have correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. I will also predict the winner of the 2019 Aussie Open men's final between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

WOMEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Naomi Osaka (JPN) [4] d. Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [7] 6-2 4-6 6-4. This was actually quite a good match but it was overshadowed by the dramatics of the round before, when Pliskova completed one of the all-time historic comebacks, amazingly against Serena Williams. She came back from 1-5 30-40 down in the final set and won the last 6 games of the set after Serena roller her ankle and failed to win another point on serve, despite having four match points. So, one would have thought that Pliskova would realize that she's playing with "house money" and come out blasting against Osaka but that is not what happened. It's clear now that Osaka has the game and mentality to get to the top of the women's game and she has demonstrated that repeatedly in the last 6 months.

Petra Kvitova (CZE) [8] d. Danielle Collins (USA) 7-6(2) 6-0. Although Pliskova's upset of Serena was historic, in some sense Collins 6-0 6-2 win over 3-time major champion Angie Kerber in the fourth round is even more astounding. The 25-year-old American had never won a grand slam match before and she ended up winning 5 matches in a row in Melbourne. For one set she held Kvitova to a tiebreak set, the first player in the tournament to stay even with the 2-time major champion for so long this year. Collins has a feisty personality, enjoying the competition and the fight. She is an excellent counterpuncher and handles pace quite well. Hopefully this breakthrough will give her the confidence to make a bigger splash on the women's tour.

WOMEN'S FINALS PREVIEW

Last year's final featured two players in Simona Halep and Caroline Wozniacki who had not won a grand slam, who were also competing for the #1 ranking in the world (although they had both held it previously). This year, the final features two players in Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitova who have both won a major but who have not reached World #1. If Osaka wins she will become World #1 at age 20, the youngest since Wozniacki did it in 2011. If Kvitova wins, she will become the oldest player to reach #1 for the first time. The two are taking undefeated grand slam final records in to this match, with Osaka 1-0 (2018 US Open, d. S. Williams) and Kvitova 2-0 (2014 Wimbledon d. Bouchard; 2011 Wimbledon d. Sharapova) so someone will experience their fist major final loss today. Kvitova has an amazing 26-7 record in finals and has won her last 8 on the tour. She is contending for the #1 spot because of her all-round stellar play on the tour, including wining the Sydney warm-up tournament over Ash Barty, while Osaka is going for her second consecutive major title.  Amazingly, the two have never played on tour before, so this is their very first meeting. That will almost certainly result in a very nervous start for both players. I would be shocked if P3tra doesn't live up to her name and the match end in straight sets. (Neither player has lost a set in a major final before either.) Their games are very similar, they play big babe, first strike tennis. Kvitova has the fact that she's a lefty in her favor, but Osaka has the more consistent serve. Osaka is possibly the better athlete, but Kvitova's amazing record in finals is very convincing to me.
 MadProfessah's pick: Kvitova.

2019 AUS OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the 2019 Australian Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals and 2 of 2 men's semifinals. This year I have correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and  correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Lucas Pouille (FRA) [28].  World #1 Novak Djokovic had a mismatch with Kei Nishikori to reach his seventh semifinal in Melbourne while Lucas Pouille is playing in his first major semifinal of his career. In fact, Pouille was 0-5 at the Australian Open and has now won 5 matches in a  row at the tournament. Surprisingly, the two have never met on tour so  there's no head-to-head influence a prediction here. There's no question that Pouille could beat Djokovic, but will he? Very unlikely. In fact, Djokovic has always won the title in Melbourne (six so far) when he reaches this level of the tournament. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) [14] vs Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2]. 20-year-old Stefanos Tsitsipas has already had a dramatic impact on the tournament by defeating 2-time defending champion Roger Federer in the 4th round. He was able to follow up that huge win without a letdown by defeating Roberto Bautista Agut in the quarterfinal. Because of that he has to face 17-time major champion Rafael Nadal, who took out another #NextGen player in Francis Tiafoe in the quarterfinal. The two have already played twice and Nadal won both matches, relatively easily in 2018. Even though Tstsipas is already better than he was last year, I still don't see how anyone prevents another Djokovic-Nadal final. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

2019 AUS OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the 2019 Australian Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals and 2 of 2 men's semifinals. This year I have correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and  correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals. I will also predict the men's semifinals this year.

Serena Williams (USA) [16] Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [7] vs. Naomi Osaka (JPN)[4].  Wow! One round after outlasting the World #1 Simona Halep in a very high-quality 3-set match Serena Williams led Karolina Pliskova 5-1 40-30 in the 3rd set when she was called on a foot fault on match point. After serving she played a point where she rolled her ankle and from then on she could not win a point on serve. Serena ended up having 4 match points in all and losing all of them (generally on outstanding play by her opponent). Once the score was even at 5-all Serena still couldn't hold serve and was broken at love and then saved 2 match points before losing on her 3rd. So, former World #1 Pliskova will face off for the right to play in her first Australian Open final with the reigning US Open champion Naomi Osaka, who dismissed Elina Svitolina in straight sets. Pliskova and Osaka have played 3 times and Pliskova leads 2-1, including a tight straight sets win in the Tokyo final. Pliskova was impressively impassive against Serena today but I still give the edge to Osaka because of her experience and the fact I think she's a better athlete. PREDICTION: Osaka.

Petra Kvitova (CZE) [8] vs. Danielle Collins (USA).  Danielle Collins has already won more money here by reaching the semifinals than she has in the rest of her career combined. She is playing against a 2-time major champion. Amazingly, these two players have played once before (just a few weeks ago) and Kvitova won a relatively tight 3-set affair featuring two tiebreak sets. In this match which is much more important I would be shocked if the player with more experience does not make it through. PREDICTION: Kvitova. 

2019 AUS OPEN: Women's Quarterfinal Preview and Predictions

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the 2019 Australian Open. Last year I did not predict the quarterfinals. This year I have also predicted the men's quarterfinals.

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] Serena Williams (USA) [16] vs. Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [7]. Serena Williams is playing in her 50th(!) major quarterfinal while her opponent is playing in her seventh. Serena has won this tournament seven times (2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2015, 2017) and is looking like she really wants to get her record-tying 24th major title here in Melbourne. She played the best match of her post-maternity come back to notch her 17th win against a reigning #1 by defeating Simona Halep in a very high-quality 3-set match 6-1 4-6 6-4. Her opponent will be former #1 Karolina Pliskova who eliminated 2-time major champion Garbine Muguruza in straight sets in exactly an hour. Curiously, the one time that Pliskova defeated Serena, it was at the 2016 U.S. Open, one round after Serena won a brilliant match against Halep. Will history repeat itself?  I seriously doubt it. PREDICTION: Serena.

Petra Kvitova (CZE) [8] vs. Ashleigh Barty (AUS) [15].  This is a reprise of the 2019 Sydney final, which was won by Kvitova in a 3rd set tiebreak. Presumably that experience should give the Czech 2-time major champion the edge against the craft Aussie who will almost certainly have the entire crowd rooting for her. It's very possible this could be another barn burner of a match. Peak Petra is unplayable, but did Kvitova peak too early be dispatching the teenage phenom Ananda Anisimova the round before in straight sets? Has Barty finally realized she has the tools to hang with the big babes now that she outlasted Maria Sharapova 6-4 in the 3rd set? This should be an exciting match-up. The winner will play the winner of the Serena-Pliskova match so the final will still be a fair distance away.  All that being said, I think experience may be dispositive. PREDICTION: Kvitova.

 Naomi Osaka (JPN) [4] vs. Elina Svitolina (UKR) [6].  This may be the most exciting of the four quarterfinals. These two players are the closest in ranking of any of the match-ups  with Svitolina holding a tight 3-2 lead in their head-to-head, including both times they played in 2018, with all 5 meetings on hard courts. That being said, is Osaka really the same player after having won a slam (2018 US Open) by defeating her idol Serena Williams? Probably not, but neither is Elina Svitolina, having won the 2018 year-end championship by outlasting Sloane Stephens. Osaka has had to problem solve her way through two tricky opponents in the last two rounds (Anastasja Sevastova and Su-Wei Hseih) while Svitolina survived the barrage against Madison Keys to win a see-saw 6-2 1-6 6-1 slugfest. Playing Keys is a good preparation for playing Osaka but there's no question that Osaka is a smarter player than the American. Svitolina is the women's tour version of Sascha Zverev and it is definitely time for her to breakthrough at a major. Is this the match that does it? I think it is very possible, but now I give Osaka the edge because she has more experience, despite being significantly younger. PREDICTION: Osaka. 

Angelique Kerber (GER) [2] Danielle Collins (USA) vs. Sloane Stephens (USA) [5] Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS). Collins announced herself last year when she kicked Venus Williams out of the Miami Open. Prior to this year, the 25-year-old American had never won a match in a major and in Australia she engineered one of the most jaw-dropping scorelines of the entire tournament, a 6-0 6-2 drubbing of 3-time major champion Angelique Kerber.  Her opponent is Pavlyuchenkova, who was able to outlast Sloane Stephens in a surprising victory. Neither of these players really have any right to be in a major semifinal and will be major underdogs to reach the final against the winner of the other quarterfinalist. In these situations, I usually go with the person who is the better athlete.  PREDICTION: Collins.

2019 AUS OPEN: Men's Quarterfinals Preview (and Predictions)

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the Australian Open for 2019.  I will also predict the women's quarterfinals.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Kei Nishikori (JPN) [8].  Nishikori has had an incredibly rough path to get to his 3rd consecutive major quarterfinal (and tenth overall). Three of the four rounds at this year's Australian Open have been 5-set matches and two of those have been decided by a final set 10-point super tiebreaker where Kei has been substantially behind but ended up getting to 10 points first. Since Djokovic has won the last two majors (2018 Wimbledon d. Kevin Anderson and 2018 U.S. Open d. Juan Martin del Potro) and is a 6-time winner in Melbourne he is widely viewed as the prohibitive favorite to win the 2019 Australian Open. However, he has not been winning as convincingly as one would expect from the World's #1, dropping a set in each of his matches against #NextGen opponents Denis Shapovalov and Daniil Medvedev. That being said, Djokovic has an overwhelming 15-2 head-to-head advantage against his quarterfinal opponent and must be considered a favorite to reach his 7th Australian Open final. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Sascha Zverev (GER) [4] Milos Raonic (CAN) [16] vs Borna Coric (CRO) [11] Lucas Pouille (FRA) [28].  Lucas Pouille  had never won a match at the Australian Open before this year despite playing it every year since 2014. Now, with Amelie Mauresmo as his coach he has won four in a row, taking out another #NextGen member in Borna Coric to reach his first major quarterfinal in three years (and the 3rd in his career). His opponent will not be the World #4 but instead will be the resurgent Milos Raonic who is trying to return to the top of men's tennis after an injury that took him out of  contention for most of 2018. Sascha Zverev has been one of the surprising disappointments in the men's game despite winning the biggest title of his career (the 2018 ATP Tour Championships) by defeating Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer along the way. Zverev won only two games in the first two sets before demolishing his racket and the third set was a tight affair but Raonic won the tiebreaker and the match. Interestingly, Raonic is 3-0 against Pouille, including a win on grass last year so he should go into this match-up with a lot of confidence, and the experience of playing in his 9th career quarterfinal (3-5 record). Mad Professah's pick: Raonic.

Marin Cilic (CRO) [6] Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) [22] vs Roger Federer (SUI) [3] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) [14]. Roberto Bautista Agut (or RBA as everyone calls him) has yet to lose a match in 2019, and is playing some of the best tennis of his life. He has an incredibly difficult draw, but has made it this far. Some of the scalps he has collected in Melbourne include Sir Andrew Murray's, 2018 Australian Open finalist Marin Cilic, and the highest ranked #NextGen player Karen Khachanov. However, he may have met his match in the brilliant Stefanos Tsitsipas who took out Roger Federer, the 2017 and 2018 champion, in four scintillating sets. The 20-year-old Greek has a big game and the maturity of some years his senior so I would not expect a mental let down despite the task of building on his paradigm-shifting win. Mad Professah's pick: Tsistipas.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] vs Francis Tiafoe (USA).  No one really has expected Nadal to do well here because his record in hard court tournaments is so hit or miss. However, it should not be forgotten that he has won the US Open three times (2010, 2013, 2017) and the Australian Open once (2009) and reached the final here three other times (2012, 2014 and 2017). But the Spaniard has yet to drop a set in four rounds of play, which bodes well for his ability to go late in the tournament. His opponent will be 21-year-old Francis Tiafoe playing in his very first major qurtaerfinal, and the first time he has been the last American remaining in a grand slam draw. Tiafoe has already taken out two very good hard court players in Kevin Anderson and Grigor Dimitrov but there's nothing that prepares one for the tenacity and power of Nadal. Surprisingly, the two have never played before and that might give Tiafoe a chance to make some inroads, but I would be surprised if he wins a set. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

2018 AUS OPEN: Federer Wins 20th(!) Major Title, Record 6th #AusOpen

As I predicted, Roger Federer won his record 20th major singles title, defeating Marin Cilic 6-2 6-7(5) 6-3 3-6 6-1 in the Australian Open final. Federer becomes the first man to reach 20 major singles title, following Margaret Court (24), Serena Williams (23) and Steffi Graf (22). His win also means he is in a tie with Novak Djokovic and Roy Emerson for the most Australian Open titles (6). He has won 20 major titles while playing in 30 major finals (both are records). 2018 is the 50th anniversary of the beginning of Open Era tennis and 200 major tournaments have been played, so Federer has appeared in 15% of those finals and won 10% of them. That's an insane number. The last 5 major championships have now been won by either Federer or Rafael Nadal and it is better than even money that Nadal will win his 11th French Open title this year to make it 6 in a row.

Federer is still at #2 on the list of singles titles won with 96, just 13 behind the top position of 109 held by Jimmy Connors. Can he win 13 more titles before he retires? I wouldn't put it past him!

MEN'S FINAL REVIEW

Despite the fact that the men's final started at 3:30am I set my alarm and woke up to watch the match live. The match began as well as it possible could have for Roger Federer as he went up a double-break hold (4-0) and eventually won the first set in 24 minutes. However, the second set was much closer as Cilic started making fewer errors and more winners. Federer's serve was a key factor to him staying in the match to weather the periods in which he was being outplayed by Cilic, and he ended up hitting more aces than his 6-foot-6" opponent. In the tiebreak Federer earned a minibreak first but immediately lost it when Cilic hit a service return winner to even the breaker at 3-all. Then Cicil earned a minibreak and closed out the set with an easy overhead smash. In the third set Federer got an early break and maintained his serve to nurse the lead to 6-3 and a 2-1 set lead. Then he got another early break in the 4th set and at 3-1 it seemed the match would be over soon. For some reason he completely lost the rhythm on his serve (his first serve percentage in the 4th set ended up being 36%!) and ended up losing 5 consecutive games to lose the 4th set 3-6. The fifth set started well, as Federer went up 40-15 in his first service game but then had to save another 3 breakpoints to hold serve. As often happens, Cilic found himself in trouble on his serve after failing to win breakpoints the game before and went do 3-0 in the final set. They both held and then while serving down 1-4 Cilic made multiple backhand errors and got broken to go down 5-1. Federer easily held serve, hitting a kick second serve on championship that just kissed the sideline leading to a return error by Cilic. Aftr a challenge confirmed the serve was n, the match was over!

2018 AUS OPEN: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Roger Federer (SUI) [2] vs. Marin Cilic (CRO) [6]

Here are my predictions for the 2018 Australian Open men's final. Last year I correctly predicted Roger Federer would beat Rafael Nadal in the men's final and also correctly predicted  1 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. This year I predicted correctly 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men''s semifinals, 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. I incorrectly predicted the results of the women's final this year.

MEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Marin Cilic (CRO) [6] d. Kyle Edmund (GBR) 6-2 7-6(4) 6-2.  This match continued to showcase Cilic's improved movement and the deadly weapons he possesses when his confidence is high and he goes for his shots. His first serve is extremely dangerous regularly getting into the 130 mph range and his backhand and forehand are hit deep and hard. Edmund can probably outmatch him for power on the forehand side (but not accuracy) and something was ailing the young Brit which made him unable to move his feet fast enough to be able to hit more forehands to make this a competitive match. Without his best weapon, the result was never really in doubt.

Roger Federer (SUI) [2] d. Hyeon Chung (KOR) 6-1 5-2 RET.  This match was even more impacted by injury than the first semifinal. Sadly, Chung, who had been battling blisters for the last week or so, could not even complete the second set as the pain became too great and he retired before he could fall down 2-0 down in sets to Roger Federer. Clearly his movement was becoming more hampered by his injury and I don't fault his decision to stop, but I do think he could have waited one more game "just for appearances."

MEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Although this is technically a reprise of the 2017 Wimbledon final, no one expects a repeat of the quality of that match, which was hampered by Cilic's lack of movement (again, due to blisters--good socks are very important in tennis, people!!). After all, on his way to winning the 2014 US Open Cilic basically destroyed Federer in straight sets in the semifinals so he most definitely can win this match. However, in 9 meetings that is the only match he has won, and there's no question both players are playing better tennis now than they were then. Most commentators expect a 5-set match but I think Federer will be able to get it done in four sets. Happily, I don't think physical stamina will play a big role in the outcome of the match, but even if it does I would still give the edge to Federer.

The two have both won majors before, so Cilic is hoping to become the 5th multiple slam winner (and youngest member of that group, at age 29) in the era of the Great Trivalry in Men's Tennis (Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic) who have won an astonishing 47 major titles among them. Regardless of the result, the Croat will become the World #3, his highest ranking to date and is showing his all-court game by reaching the final of 3 of the four majors. Because Federer winning here would just repeat last year's result Nadal will still be #1 but the lead has been reduced, but Federer has a fair amount of points to defend in the Spring North American hard court season, having won both Indian Wells and Miami last year as well. But really the key point of this match is whether Federer can win his 20th major title in his 30th major final appearance at age 36. I believe he can, and amazingly, may even go further this year. If he does win his 20th, will that make him more likely to retire earlier than he planned?

 Mad Professah's pick: Federer.

2018 AUS OPEN: Wozniacki (Finally) Wins 1st Major, Returns To #1

Despite my prediction to the contrary, Caroline Wozniacki won her first major singles title by defeating Simona Halep. The score was 7-6(2) 3-6 6-4 and some observers are calling it the greatest Australian Open women's final ever. I would strongly disagree with that assessment, but it was 2 hours and 49-minutes of long rallies and incredible gets, and probably did exceed the great Halep-Kerber match of the women's semifinals.

Wozniaciki's major win in Melbourne puts her entire career in perspective; Now, along with her 67 weeks at #1 (sure to be extended as she resumes the top spot in women's tennis on Monday), 2017 year-end championship win and three major final appearances means that  at age 27 she is certain Tennis Hall Of Fame material. Halep falls to 0-3 in major finals, but it is clear she is getting closer and she should have many more opportunities if she continues to play at this level. She can look to Wozniacki for inspiration that long waits are worth it!

2018 AUS OPEN: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [2]

Here are my predictions for the 2018 Australian Open women's final. Last year I correctly predicted Serena Williams would beat Venus Williams in the women's final and also coreectly predicted  1 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. This year I predicted correctly 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men''s semifinals, 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. 

WOMEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] d. Angelique Kerber [21] (GER) 6-3 4-6 9-7.  As expected this was an absolute corker of a match and met the heightened expectations after both Kerber and Halep defeated hard-hitting opponents in their respective quarterfinals against Karolina Pliskova and Madison Keys, respectively. Halep started off quite strong, racing to a 5-0 lead but then faltered when serving for the set and let Kerber get back to 5-3 but then won the set 6-3. Again in the second set Halep was up a break at 3-1 but then Kerber got it back to 3-all and eventually won the set 6-4. The deciding set Halep had match points at 4-5, 15-40  with Kerber serving but then had to save match points herself when Kerber served at 6-5, 40-15. Eventually, Halep broke in the sixteenth game to win the decider 9-7. The match featured extremely high-quality play on both sides of the net and included several incredible, gut-busting rallies of length in the 20-shot range.

Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [2] d. Elise Mertens (BEL) [16] 6-3 7-6(2).  This was a closer match than anyone expected but as expected Wozniacki was able to beat the unheralded Belgian player in a pretty routine fashion. There were none of the lapses or streaks which Wozniacki has had in other matches here in Melbourne, like in her quarterfinal which she won 6-0, 7-6(3), 6-2 with Carla Suarez Navarro saving match points in the second set but then going away in the third. Mertens put up a more consistent defense but it was not enough to deny Wozniacki the win.


WOMEN'S FINAL PREVIEW
As with most major finals, this will be a historic match. But this will make a bit more history than most. It is a rare showdown between the World #1 and World #2 in a major final and the winner of the match will be #1 after the tournament.  (The last time that happened was when #1 Serena Williams beat #2 Maria Sharapova in 2015.) This is also the first time that both players have saved match points en route to a major final, and Halep has done it in two matches (against Kerber in the semifinals and against Davis in the 3rd round while Wozniacki did it against Fett in the 2nd round.) This is also the 3rd time in the last four slams to be contested between first-time Slam winners (2017 French Open final where Jelena Ostapenko d. Halep and 2017 U.S. Open final Sloane Stephens d. Keys). This is Wozniacki's 43rd major championship appearance (only Jana Novotna, Marion Bartoli and Flavia Pennetta had more appearances before winning their first major). It is Halep's 31st appearance. Interestingly, they are both playing in their 3rd major final.

If Wozniacki wins the championship and thus gets to #1, that will be the largest gap in times at #1 in the history of the WTA tour (almost exactly 6 years, surpassing Serena's record of 5-plus years).  Head to head some may be surprised to discover that Wozniacki holds a 4-2 lead, and has won their last 3 matches, including a 6-0 6-2 drubbing at the 2017 WTA Tour finals. However, Halep leads 2-1 in their outdoor hard-courts. and the two have never contested a final.

I think this will probably be an even better match than the Halep-Kerber match, but I think it is also very likely that nerves will play a significant role, more so for Wozniacki, who has not been in a major final since the 2014 U.S. Open, where she lost to Serena. Her previous appearance was the 2009 U.S. Open final against Kim Clijsters. Neither of those matches did anyone give her a decent shot at winning, while in this final with Halep, she knows she can win and she also knows this may not have any more chances at winning that elusive major after this chance, especially with Serena's imminent return. I believe Halep will have learned from her play against Ostapenko where she lost a match up a set and  a break and will be the aggressor again, against a  Wozniacki who will be playing more aggressive than usual but whose natural instinct is to be a counterpuncher. Regardless, I will be happy with whomever wins, but I think it will be the World #1.

MadProfessah's prediction: Halep.

2018 AUS OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview and Predictions

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the 2018 Australian Open. Last year I did not predict the quarterfinals but correctly predicted 1 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. This year I predicted correctly 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. I have also predicted the women's semifinals.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [1] Marin Cilic (CRO) [6] vs. Kyle Edmund (GBR) Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) [3].  This was a very unlikely semifinal matchup (perhaps even more unlikely than the bizarre Tennys Sandgren-Hyeon Chung quarterfinal in the round before. Nadal had only lost one meeting in the six he had played against the 6-foot-5 Croatian. However, this time when he fell behind 2 sets to one, Cilic continued to play hard-hitting, confident tennis, and eventually forced a fifth deciding set against the World #1. It was clear Nadal was not at his best throughout the 4th set and early in the 5th (down 0-2) he pulled the ripcord and retired from the match, giving up his quest for a 2nd Australian Open title. But in some sense this was the lesser surprise result. Who would have thought that the first British player to reach a major semifinal this year would be Kyle Edmund? And he did so by defeating (primarily by outhitting) the World #3 (and last year's semifinalist) Grigor Dimitrov. Edmund and Cilic have only played once before, fairly recently at last year's Shanghai Masters and Cilic won in two relatively tight sets. Edmund has been playing some of his best tennis early in 2018 and is clearly better than his official World #49 ranking, but is he really ready for his first major final? Cilic is playing for his 3rd major final and I suspect he will get there, just so he can get another chance at denying Federer another major title. Mad Professah's pick: Cilic.


Roger Federer (SUI) [2] vs Hyeon Chung (KOR) Novak Djokovic (SRB) [14].  These two have never played each other. Although one would think this would make this result a slam dunk for the 19-time major champion, I seriously doubt it will be. Chung has already out-Djokovic'ed Djokovic and that game is something that has given Federer fits for years. However, I doubt that Chung has yet mastered the intangibles which make Djokovic so dangerous to Federer (winner takes all forehand service return winner down double-match point, anyone?) It's also true that Federer is not playing his best tennis either, but as a 19-time major champion he has figured out many ways to win matches when he is not playing his best and I suspect this will be another exapmle of this.Mad Professah's pick: Federer.

2018 AUS OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview and Predictions

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the 2018 Australian Open. Last year I did not predict the quarterfinals but correctly predicted 1 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. This year I predicted correctly 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. I have also predicted the men's semifinals.

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] vs. Angelique Kerber [21] (GER). Halep has already played the match of the tournament by surviving a 3 hours 44 minute tussle with American Lauren Davis in the third round, while Kerber is looking like she has been able to capture the form that allowed her to beat Serena Williams in the final here two years ago. They both got here by dispatching two tall, hard-hitting opponents. Halep went down 0-3 (and breakpoint) against Karolina Pliskova in the quarterfinal but then won 12 of the next 14 games to sweep the Czech player 6-3 6-2. Halep was even more dominant against 2017 US Open finalist Madison Keys with a 6-1 6-2 win. These two have a head-to-head tied at 4-all but they did not meet at all in 2017 where Halep had her #1 ranking performance. They met 5 times in 2016 when Kerber was winning 2 majors and ended the year #1 and Kerber won 4 of those matches. This will almost certainly not be a straight sets sweep by one player; if it is not a 3-set, 3-hour war of attrition of shotmaking and indefatigable ball retrieving many will be quite disappointed. I think this is basically a tossup but I think I will go with Halep because I think the fact that she is ranked World #1 now and has already saved match point(s) in this tournament will give her the confidence to persevere even when things get tight and grim. PREDICTION: Halep.

Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [2] vs. Elise Mertens (BEL) [16] Elina Svitolina (UKR) [4].   Elina Svitolina again showed she has some steps to go before her success on the WTA tour translates to meaningful success in the biggest stages of the game, in the majors. She has previously easily beaten Elise Mertens in a clay court final last year, but in a major quarterfinal in Melbourne she managed to win only 4 games and suffered a 2nd set bagel. Bizarrely, her opponent in the semifinal, Caroline Wozniacki started by giving her quarterfinal opponent, Carla Suarez Navarro a bagel in the first set and blew a matchpoint in the second set which she lost in a tiebreak. Most other players that might signal a meltdown in the third set but the Wozniacki just got back to work and easily won the deciding set 6-2. Wozniacki has only ever reached major finals in New York City but I believe that is about to change as she rides the confidence of surviving matchpoint down in the 2nd round and the absence of Serena Williams from the women's game to (perhaps) win her first major title. PREDICTION: Wozniacki.