Saturday Politics: Isadore Hall Outraises Both Incumbents in CA-44

Assemblyman Isadore Hall previously came to my attention because he announced he was interested in a run for Congress way back in June even before redistricting was complete which would have entailed him challenging a sitting African-American Congresswoman. Now that redistricting is complete, there is much drama in what is being called the 44th Congressional District because it contains most of U.S. Rep. Laura Richardson's old district but also contains pieces of the former 36th Congressional district which was won by former Los Angeles City councilmember Janice Hahn in a special election this July.

Now  U.S. Rep. Hahn has controversially decided to run in the 44th congressional district, a district specifically designed to be "majority-minority" against U.S. Rep. Laura Richardson and Assemblymember Hall, who are both African-Americans.

However, what is striking that this week came the news that in the last reporting period the state legislator out-raised both of his federal legislator rivals.

The National Journal reports:

Richardson’s been the subject of ethics questions recently: She’s accused of forcing her staff to work for and contribute to her campaign. She’s denied the allegations, but her fundraising dropped off in the third quarter, bringing in only $72,000 with just $116,000 in the bank. Hahn, after her special election, raised $139,000. A third Democrat, Assemblyman Isadore Hall, outraised them both with $158,000.

Very interesting. In the Los Angeles area there are a number of these intra-Democrat incumbent versus incumbent battles, the most amusing being Rep. Brad Sherman versus Rep. Howard Berman (in the new CA-30), who not only have similar sounding names but basically identical voting records.

CA-36: Hahn Defeats Huey By 9 Points

In yesterday's special election to replace former U.S. Representative Jane Harman in the 36th Congressional District of California, Los Angeles City Councilwoman has defeated Republican Tea Party businessman Craig Huey 54.5%-45.5%, just under 7,00
0 votes out of 75,000 cast.

The details are:

As of Date: 07/12/2011 Time: 23:31             Votes  Percent 
                                                                             
US REPRESENTATIVE 36 DIST    TERM ENDS 01/03/13                              
                                                                             
   JANICE HAHN            DEM                  41,585    54.56 
   CRAIG HUEY             REP                  34,636    45.44 
                                                                             
TOTAL PRECINCTS        261            

PRECINCTS REPORTING    261   100.00 
REGISTRATION       342,492   

Congratiolations to Congresswoman-elect Hahn!

CA-36: Hahn Barely Leads Huey In Special Election

Janice Hahn (D) has a lead of 8 points over a Tea Party Republican
 in tomorrow's Congressional special election in the 36th District

Daily Kos has a new poll of the 36th Congressional district special election which should scare the bejeezus out of every Democrat in Southern California! In the special election between Democratic Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn and Tea Party Republican businessman Craig Huey

Here are the poll results:

Janice Hahn (D): 52 

Craig Huey (R): 44 

Undecided: 4 

Margin of Error: ±3.9%

The margin of error is important. The spread between the candidates is a mere 8 points but the margin of error is ±3.9 which means that Hahn's lead could theoretically be 0.2 percentage points (or it could also be 15.8 points). Another interesting factor there is the undecided number: just 4 percentage points. That is pretty low, as it should be, since election day is tomorrow Tuesday July 12th. However, people in the 36th district have been voting absentee-by-mail for weeks. However, there is not so good news there for Hahn either.

Dave Catanese of Politico has these totals by the party registrations of those people who had requested vote-by-mail ballots as of Friday July 1st:

Republican/Libertarian — 13,343 

Democratic/Green — 14,035 

Non-affiliated — 5,512

Democrats/Greens outnumber Republican/Libertarian absentee voters by a mere 692 votes! However, in California, it is more likely than not that Hahn is winning the vast majority of the Decline To State ("Non-Affiliated") voters so in that case she should be going into tomorrow's election with a lead, but that's a BIG IF.
The 36th is a pretty tricky district, even if Obama carried by 30 points (64-34), which is a bit less than the 69-31 longtime incumbent Jane Harman had carried it by.

I fully expect Janice Hahn to replace Harman in Congress representing the 36th District tomorrow. It should be interesting to see what happens to the 36th District in the final round of redistricting and if Huey will have a better chance of unseating Hahn in a less partisan district.

Election Results for tomorrow can be found here at LAvote.net.

CA-36: Hahn Leads Primary, Bowen Currently 3rd

The preliminary results from yesterday's election in Los Angeles County are in and there are some surprises in the race to replace Jane Harman in the 36th Congressional District of California, CA-36.

Here are the numbers right now (as of 05/17/2011 23:27):

JANICE HAHN        DEM            13,137    24.66 
CRAIG HUEY         REP            11,648    21.87 
DEBRA BOWEN        DEM            11,442    21.48

Only the top two vote getters regardless of party advance to the July 12th run-off election, thanks to the nonsensical Proposition 14 which was passed by voters in June 2010 and is now in effect.

MadProfessah had endorsed California Secretary of State Debra Bowen as the true progressive in the race (U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein endorsed Hahn, blech!) so I was distressed to see her in 3rd position behind a self-financed Tea Party Republican candidate. However, there does seem to be some kind of indications that she may be able to pick up the 207 votes she needs to reach the #2 position. If that doesn't happen, then presumably Hahn would be the next Congressmember from the 36th District, and would set up another special election to fill her then-vacated Los Angeles City Council seat.

In better news, Scott Svonkin has almost certainly won his run-off against another tea Party Republican (named Lydia Gutierrez) for a seat on the Los Angeles Community College District Board. That race was the only contest on the ballot when I voted yesterday.

Saturday Politics: Hahn and Bowen Battle Over CA-36

LA. City Councilperson Janice Hahn ((left) and CA Secretary of State Debra Bowen
are competing for a rare open Congressional seat

Open congressional seats  in California are like "blue moons": they don't come around that often. The last open seat was CA-33 when Diane Watson retired and was replaced by former Assembly Speaker Karen Bass. With the retirement of U.S. Representative Jane Harman, who was a hawk and a Blue Dog, progressives are salivating over the prospect of getting a true liberal to replace her in the 36th Congressional District which Barack Obama carried by over 30 points.

The Washington Post's Rachel Weiner notes:

The likely result of the May 17 primary fight, which features 11 total candidates including 2010 primary loser Marcy Winograd, is a July 12 runoff. Under California’s new primary system, if no candidate gets 50 percent in the primary, the two top vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to a runoff.

“I think its clear there’ll be a runoff,” said Joe Trippi, a longtime Democratic consultant who is advising Hahn’s campaign.

Bowen holds statewide office and represented most of this district in the 1990s as a state legislator. Yet to hear her campaign tell it, she’s the outsider against Hahn.

The argument: Hahn has more endorsements and more money while Bowen has more grassroots support. A majority of her donors gave $200 or less. Democracy for America, a leading liberal organization, endorsed her after polling their members in the district. Her campaign is also quick to point out that Hahn has taken contributions from lobbyists.

As secretary of state, Bowen has been behind a number of initiatives that appeal to liberals, including work on ballot security. She has a long history of advocacy on environmental issues. She’s positioned herself as the anti-war candidate, trying to take some of the space occupied by Winograd, who ran against Harman in 2010 and took 41 percent.

The only poll of the race I have seen is an internal poll released by the Bowen campaign indicating a tie between Hahn and Bowen with 20 percent of the vote each, and Winograd back at 6 percent and openly gay Republican Mike Gin at 8 percent.

MadProfessah doesn't really know either of these candidates well, but I have been unimpressed with Hahn in the past when she ran (and lost) against Gavin Newsom for  Lieutenant Governor last year while Bowen has been endorsed by LGBT super-ally U.S. Representative Judy Chu (CA-32). Hahn has been endorsed by Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and enemy-of-true-progressives everywhere U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein.

CA-36: Rep. Harman Announces Retirement

U.S. Rep. Jane Harman

Congressmember Jane Harman, Democrat representing California's 36th Congressional District, announced on Monday that she will be resigning from Congress to assume leadership of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

Congressional seats are not subject to term limits and become available very rarely. The last open seat was the 33rd Congressional District seat won by Karen Bass in a barely contested race in June 2010. The last contested  Congressional seat was the 32nd Congressional District seat won by former State Assembyperson Judy Chu over former State Senator Gil Cedillo.

The names which have been bandied about as replacements for Harman are Los Angeles Councilmember Janice Hahn, Secretary of State Debra Bowen and Assemblymember Warren Furutani.