UPDATE: Michael Johnson (Black, Gay ,HIV+ Man) Released From Prison Early!

Michael Johnson (left) with Dr. Steve Thrasher

There's an exciting update in the ongoing saga of Michael Johnson (also known as "Tiger Mandingo"), a Black gay man with HIV who at the age of 23 in 2015 was sentenced to 30-years in prison for knowingly exposing several gay men to HIV (some of whom subsequently tested positive for HIV later). Johnson's case was a textbook case of HIV stigma combined with racial animus leading to a problematic criminal justice result. Happily, this conviction was overturned in 2016 and last year Johnson agreed to a 10-year Alford plea deal with the last 3 years converted to parole.

One of the key journalists and activists who raised the media profile of the Johnson case was Steve Thrasher (@thrasherxy) (seen pictured with Johnson above the day he was released from prison on July 9, 2019).

A New York Times report on Johnson's release said:

In theory, H.I.V. exposure laws are meant to encourage H.I.V.-positive individuals to disclose their status before having sex, and to practice safer sex, with the ultimate goal of preventing the spread of the virus.
But there is no evidence that these laws have reduced risky behavior or encouraged disclosure, said Catherine Hanssens, the executive director of the Center for H.I.V. Law and Policy, which provided legal support for Mr. Johnson’s case.
In the eyes of the law, an H.I.V. diagnosis is conflated with malice, she added.
“These laws effectively treat an H.I.V. diagnosis itself as evidence that the person acted with bad intentions when sex or other types of physical contact are involved in a crime,” she said.

Congratulations to everyone who worked on this case. Johnson will be moving to and living in Indiana with a friend and says he plans to continue his education and would like to share his story as part of advocacy for HIV prevention and treatment,

WARNING: Russian Teams Dominate Collegiate Prestigious International Programming Contest Standings

Things that make you go hmmmm! The ICPC 2018 (ACM International Collegiate Programming Contest) was just held last week and the results could be ominous for future technological success by the United States.

The top 2 places were taken by two teams from Russia: Moscow State University (#1) and Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (#2). Teams from China, Japan and South Korea rounded out the rest of the top 5. The highest an American team placed was #10 (University of Central Florida), which just edged out #11, which was from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Of the 13 teams in the top tier, 4 were from Russia and 3 were from China.

Jus' saying...

STUDY: U.S. Mathematics Majors Most Likely To Switch To Another Subject

The National Center for Education Statistics at the U.S. Department of Education released a report at the end of last year about students switching majors in college. "Beginning College Students Who Change Their Majors Within 3 Years of Enrollment" has a number of interesting facts about students who change majors while pursuing associate's and bachelor's degrees in the United States:

• About half (52 percent) of students whose original declared major was mathematics switched majors within 3 years. Mathematics majors changed majors at a rate higher than that of students in all other fields, both STEM and non-STEM, except the natural sciences.
  
• Within 3 years of initial enrollment, about 30 percent of undergraduates in associate’s and bachelor’s degree programs who had declared a major had changed their major at least once.
  
• About one-third of students enrolled in bachelor’s degree programs changed majors, compared with 28 percent of those enrolled in associate’s degree programs.
  
• About 1 in 10 students changed majors more than once: 10 percent of associate’s degree students and 9 percent of bachelor’s degree students.

Hat/tip to Voice of America!

REPORT: Many Los Angeles Area STEM Jobs In 2016-2021 Will Not Require 4-Year Degrees

Interesting report from the Center for a Competitive Workforce about a potential talent shortage in the Los Angeles county area in the near future. Many people think that STEM technical jobs require a 4-year degree, but this report says that there will be many "middle skills" job openings in the Los Angeles area that will not.

In the region there will be approximately 67,450 job openings over the next five years for the 20 occupations examined in the report.  But, according to the latest data available, from the academic year 2014-15, there were fewer than 27,000 career education award earners in the greater Los Angeles Basin. And only about 7,800 awards were conferred in programs training relevant to the 20 target occupations. 

If this trend continues without our region’s talent development systems and institutions responding in kind, especially the community colleges which are the primary suppliers of this middle skill talent, then the demand in the region will not be met over the next five years.

One key takeaway from the report is that local community colleges in Los Angeles will only provide 58% of the people with associates degrees or certificates that the area will likely need to fill these jobs in the near future.

Hat/tip to KPCC

2017 US OPEN: Nadal Wins 16th Major

As I expected, Rafael Nadal defeated Kevin Anderson 6-3 6-4 6-4 to win the 2017 U.S. Open, claiming his 16th major title and 3rd in New York. He improved to 16-7 in major finals and reached the finals of 3 of the four majors in 2017, thus cementing his hold on the World #1 ranking for the year. Only Gilles Muller was able to beat him before the final round of a major this year, and that took an extraordinary 28-game final set. Roger Federer  and Nadal split the majors this year, with Federer winning the Australia Open (d. Nadal) and Wimbledon (d. Marin Cilic), and Nadal winning the French (d. Stan Wawrinka) and the U.S. Open. The other members of the big four, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray failed to reach a major final in 2017 and have basically ceded the rest of the season to their older rivals.

Nadal's win means that just like this point last year, Nadal, 31, and Federer, 36, are again 3 major titles apart, but instead of being at 17 and 14 they have both separated themselves from the previous greats of the sport (Pete Sampras at 14) and now they are at 19 and 16 with the very real possibility they will both reach the once-inconceivable number of 20 singles slams each. Who will be the G.OA.T.?

REPORT: No Educational Achievement Gap Between Multiracial and White Students

A new report published by the Brookings Institute, a liberal think-tank in Washington D.C. claims that there is educational gap between multiracial and white students. This would seem to contradict the race-based theories  trying to explain the achievement gaps which are often found when one analyzed educational attainment data through a racial and ethnic lens.

Here's an excerpt from the report, authored by Jonathan Rothwell, an Economist who works at Gallup

Despite the growing number of multiracial students, almost no attention has been given to their educational outcomes. But gaining a better understanding of how multiracial students perform may cast useful light on the causes of race gaps more generally. My analysis shows that:

1.    Students of multiracial identity are from families with lower socioeconomic status than whites; 

2.    They attend schools that are far more integrated with whites and Asians compared to blacks, Hispanics, American Indians, and Pacific Islanders 

3.    Multiracial students have the same average test scores as whites on math, science, and writing; 

4.    For reading tests, multiracial students outperform other groups, including Asians; and 

5.    These results contradict the controversial hypothesis that between group differences in IQ result from genetic differences between races.

These findings suggest that the race gaps in academic achievement in the United States are the result of inequality, especially in terms of access to educational opportunities, and therefore could be closed under fairer political, social, and economic arrangements.

This is just more evidence about the socially constructed nature of race and the arbitrariness of racial categories. If "white"

POLL: Support For Marriage Equality Nearly 2:1 (64%-34%)

As someone who was in the trenches fighting for marriage equality for close to twenty years, it is exciting to report that public opinion has now swung dramatically in favor of supporting same-sex marriages.

According to Gallup, 64% of Americans support marriage equality, with opposition at 34%. Even Republicans have plurality support for the position that the law should support marriages between same-sex couples.

To put it succinctly, Gallup says:

Though the Supreme Court has settled the legality of same-sex marriage, a third of Americans are opposed to it. 

But support for gay marriage has gradually increased over the past two decades, reaching majority support with new groups, as it did with senior citizens in 2016 and Protestants this year. Republicans' support for gay marriage is also at a new high and could trend toward majority support in the near future.

It is worth noting that nearly two years after Obergefell legalize same-sex marriage that a full third of respondents think it should be illegal.

However it is pretty awesome to see the trend; hopefully it will remain monotonically increasing from now on!

2016 World Chess Championship Tied At 6-All; Tiebreaker Games To Be Played Wednesday

The 2016 World Chess Championship is going on right now in New York City. The current champion Magnus Carlsen of Norway, who turns 26 on Wednesday while the challenger is Sergey Karjakin is already 26 and was born in the Ukraine but is representing Russia.

After 12 games (with only 2 decisive games, Karjakin won game 8 with Black while Carlsen won game 10 with white) the two are tied with 6 points each. On Wednesday, they will play in several short tiebreaker games to decide who the new World Champion is. Carlsen is expected to have the slight edge, since he has won the World Rapid Championship twice.

2016 EMMYS: Comparing The Winners To My Predictions

I predicted the winners of the top categories at this past weekend's Emmy awards. I was correct in four of the six categories. However, in the two categories I missed, the actors I wanted to win Rami Malek of Mr. Robot and Tatiana Maslany of Orphan Black won, which was awesome!

Outstanding Comedy Series

• Veep (HBO)
• Transparent (Amazon)
• Silicon Valley (HBO)
• Modern Family (ABC)
• Master of None (Netflix)
• Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
• Black-ish (ABC)

SHOULD WIN: Modern Family

WILL WIN: Veep.

DID WIN: Veep.

Outstanding Drama Series

• The Americans (FX)
• Game of Thrones (HBO)
• House of Cards (Netflix)
• Downton Abbey (PBS)
• Better Call Saul (AMC)
• Mr. Robot (USA)
• Homeland (Showtime)

SHOULD WIN: : Game of Thrones.
WILL WIN: Game of Thrones.

DID WIN: Game of Thrones.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

• Kyle Chandler (Bloodline)
• Rami Malek (Mr. Robot)
• Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
• Matthew Rhys (The Americans)
• Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan)
• Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)

SHOULD WIN: Rami Malek. 

WILL WIN: Kevin Spacey.

DID WIN: Rami Malek. 

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

• Viola Davis (How to Get Away With Murder)
• Claire Danes (Homeland)
• Taraji P. Henson (Empire)
• Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black)
• Keri Russell (The Americans)
• Robin Wright (House of Cards)

SHOULD WIN: Tatiana Maslany or Viola Davis. 
WILL WIN: Keri Russell.

DID WIN: Tatiana Maslany.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

• Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
• Aziz Ansari (Master of None)
• Will Forte (The Last Man on Earth)
• William H. Macy (Shameless)
• Thomas Middleditch (Silicon Valley)
• Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent)

SHOULD WIN: Thomas Middleditch.
WILL WIN: Jeffrey Tambor.

DID WIN: Jeffrey Tambor.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

• Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
• Laurie Metcalf (Getting On)
• Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)
• Amy Schumer (Inside Amy Schumer)
• Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie)

SHOULD WIN: Tracee Ellis Ross.
WILL WIN: Julia Louis-Dreyfus.

DID WIN: Julia Louis-Dreyfus.

2016 WIMBLEDON: Men's and Women's Draws Released

There is big news out of Great Britain today.... The 2016 Wimbledon Championships draw is out!

On the men's side, the projected quarterfinals are:

• Novak Djokovic (1) versus Milos Raonic (6)
• Roger Federer (3) versus Kei Nishikori (5)
• Stan Wawrinka (4) versus Dominic Thiem (7)
• Andy Murray (2) versus Richard Gasquet (8)

On the women's side the projected quarterfinals are:

• Serena Williams (1) vs. Roberta Vinci (6)
• Agnieska Radwanska (3) vs. Belinda Bencic (7)
• Angelique Kerber (4) vs. Simona Halep (5)
• Garbine Muguruza (2) vs. Venus Williams (8)

Serena and Djokovic are the defending champions, with Djokovic going for his 5th consecutive major win (and 3rd consecutive Wimbledon). Serena is trying to win her 22nd major title (6th Wimbledon) and has lost in the first two major finals she played this year.

TENNIS TUESDAY: Sharapova Stuns Tennis World With Admission Of Failed WADA Test

5-time major champion Maria Sharapova piqued the attention of the world press when she announced over the weekend that she would be giving a press conference in Los Angeles on Monday, just hours after football legend Peyton Manning was scheduled to confirm his retirement from the world's most lucrative sport. This led to speculation that perhaps the 28-year-old Russian would announce her own retirement from tennis on Monday.

Instead, the highest paid female athlete in the world announced that she had recently received a letter from the World Anti-Doping Authority (WADA) that she had failed a drug test at the 2016 Australian Open. Apparently she had tested positive for the substance meldonium from a sample provided to WADA on January 26 (during the Australian Open), which had been added to list of banned substances on January 1, 2016.

Sharapova gave a press conference where she took full responsibility for the failed drug test and said that she had been taking meldonium since 2006 and that although she had received an email with a link to the new list of unapproved substances she did not personally look at the new list. Meldonium is not a drug that is approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration (it is manufactured in Latvia).

There are many more questions raised by Sharapova's press conference. Here are just a few:

1. How long will she be banned from tennis for this infraction? (She has already been officially banned from professional tennis starting March 12, 2016.)
2. How did the most highly paid female athlete in tennis not have someone on her staff who regularly checks the list of substances the athlete takes and compares it to the current list of banned substances maintained by WADA?
3. Does Sharapova take the drug every day? What is the half-life of meldonium? Depending on how long meldonium remains in the system, perhaps 25 days after she stopped taking it, she tested positive for it. After all, if she had smoked marijuana on December 31st, it's very possible she could have tested positive for THC 3-4 weeks later.
4. Why has Sharapova been taking this drug for the last 10 years, and what effect does this have on her legacy as a player if she used a now-banned substance to (presumably enjoy an) advantage in tennis competitions for the vast majority of her professional career?
5. Will she be able to play in the Rio Olympics?

Sharapova is 28 (turns 29 next month) and an extensive ban at this time could push her into announcing her retirement for real this time, a reality she herself acknowledged when she said "I don't want to end my career this way, and I really hope I will be given another chance to play this game."

STUDY: 52% Of Tweets Against SCOTUS Obergefell Ruling Were Religion-Based

An analysis of over 25,000 tweets by Crowdflower in response to the June 26th United States Supreme Court ruling Obergefell v. Hodges striking down state-based bans on same-sex marriage indicate that the majority of opposition is based in religion. Of course, the decision was about civil marriage licensed by the state, not religious marriages but people who believe in a mythical, omnipotent, omniscient "sky god" are not exactly the same group of people to recognize reality or reason.

Other key findings in the CrowdFlower report include:

SUPPORT OUTWEIGHED CRITICISM 4 TO 1 

Although overall Twitter sentiment was 55% positive, 32% neutral, and 13% negative, with neutral tweets excluded, positive opinions outweighed negative opinions 80% to 20%. 

WOMEN WERE MORE SUPPORTIVE THAN MEN 

While 86% of women and 72% of men were in favor of the Supreme Court ruling, 14% of women and 28% of men opposed it. 

THE EAST COAST HAD THE MOST SUPPORTERS 

Massachusetts (96% approval), New Jersey (87.3% approval), and New York (86.8% approval) were most vocal in their support of the Supreme Court ruling. 

SOUTHERN STATES HAD THE MOST OPPONENTS 

Although these three states still had more supporters than detractors, Alabama (50% disapproval), North Carolina (35.1% disapproval), and Virginia (31.5% disapproval) had the most naysayers. 

OVERALL SENTIMENT WAS POSITIVE IN ALL STATES 

For all states with a significant volume of tweets, the majority of sentiment was positive.

Are the heterosexual supremacists in theGOP looking at these numbers? Read 'em and weep! EVERY state was positive:

Boom!

SCOTUS Stays Virginia Marriages, Maintains Suspense On Its Position On Marriage Equality

While I was driving from Los Angeles to Albuquerque via Tucson on Wednesday, the Supreme Court issued a stay in the Virginia marriage equality case Bostic v Schaefer, preventing same-sex marriages from happening in that state the next day. This was not a surprise, as the Court has issued stays four other times this year in other similar cases. However, these actions don't really tell us much about what the Supreme Court will ultimately rule on the marriage equality question, says noted Supreme Court expert Lyle Denniston at SCOTUS blog:

Through all of this year, from January on, the Court could not help but be aware of what was happening in the lower courts, with a string of decisions nullifying state bans on same-sex marriage.  The fact that the Court has been drawn in on five occasions has kept it in the middle of the controversy, even if it has mostly kept its own counsel about what it is thinking. 

With a little more than five weeks until the Justices assemble in their first private Conference, in advance of the new Term starting October 6, it is by no means clear that any same-sex marriage case will be ready for the Justices to consider it on September 29.  That depends, in part, on whether the Court will have cases before it one at a time, as each is ready, or in a group., when several are ready. 

The last scheduled day for distributing a case for consideration by the Justices at the September 29 meeting is September 10 — now, just three weeks away.  The pending Utah case has a fair prospect of being ready then, but there is reason to doubt at this point that the pending Oklahoma and Virginia cases will be complete.  The lawyers involved have said they were working diligently to push matters along, but the clock is against them for action by the Justices at the outset of the new Term. 

There will be plenty of time, though, to get a case before the Court for decision during the new Term.  If a case is accepted for review by sometime next January, it is almost certain to be decided before the end of the Term, late next June. 

Is a grant of review a certainty in coming months?  There is never a sufficiently strong advance signal to predict that.

So, basically even if a critical mass of marriage cases is not ready by the September 10th deadline, almost certainly enough will be ready by the January deadline that the Court will have take a position (of whether they want to decide these cases outright, or to wait for a Circuit split and then a likely ruling in an election year instead of in 2015). I suspect we'll have an answer by June 2015 and it will be one that surprises most people.

GODLESS WEDNESDAY: Poll Indicates LGBT Americans Less Religious

Joe.My.God pointed out a recent Gallup poll which demonstrates that LGBT Americans are less religious than other Americans. In my mind, this is a good thing!

Gallup explains the difference may be explained:

The under-representation of LGBT Americans in the ranks of the religious in the U.S. today has a number of possible causes. Some of these center on the effect of church policies and doctrine, which have historically been disapproving of non-heterosexual love and relations, while others may reflect demographic and geographic differences in the LGBT population compared with the rest of the population. 

Societal attitudes toward same-sex relations have become more accepting, and recent stances taken by several churches and religions reflect this. Just this summer, the Presbyterian Church (USA) voted to allow that denomination's ministers to perform same-sex marriages in states where it is legal. If these types of shifts continue, LGBT adults may be more likely to feel welcome in attending churches and other religious institutions, as well as in identifying as religious, personally.

So maybe that's why atheism and gayness go together like rainbow flags and pride parades!

SATURDAY POLITICS: Nate Silver Proves White Republicans More Racist Than White Democrats

Nate Silver relaunched his FiveThirtyEight.com website awhile back and continues his mission to bring his analytic skills to non-quantitative fields. For example, in a recent article, Silver analyzes poling data from the General Social Survey to confirm what most people already know, (white) Republicans and more racist than (white) Democrats.

As of 2012, this index stood at 27 percent for white Republicans and 19 percent for white Democrats. So there’s a partisan gap, although not as large of one as some political commentators might assert. There are white racists in both parties. By most questions, they represent a minority of white voters in both parties. They probably represent a slightly larger minority of white Republicans than white Democrats. 

Fortunately, the expression of racism by whites toward blacks has decreased over time, and for Americans in both parties — at least, according to this survey. In 1990, the index of negative racial attitudes stood at 40 percent for white Democrats and 41 percent for white Republicans. 

There hasn’t been much of an overall increase or decrease in the index since Obama took office. On average, between the 2004 and 2006 editions of the surveys — the last two before Obama was either a president or a candidate — the index of negative racial attitudes stood at 22 percent for white Democrats and 26 percent for white Republicans. Those values are within the margin of error for those in the 2010 and 2012 surveys. 

If there’s a discouraging trend, it’s not so much that negative racial attitudes toward blacks have increased in these polls, but that they’ve failed to decrease under Obama, as they did so clearly for most of the past three decades.

So if people thought that "racism was over" because Barack Obama was elected President (I'm looking at your John Roberts!) they should look at this data and think again.

POLL: Is Obama "Black" Or "Mixed-Race"? Majority Of Americans Pick The Latter...

A new poll from the Pew Research Center called "The Next America" dives deep into the future demographics of America and reveals how American's views on race an racial identity have changed and are continuing to change.

For example, a majority of respondents (52%) to a poll when asked about the racial identity of President Barack Obama in 2009 said that they think of him as "Mostly Mixed Race" while only 27% said they thought of him as "Mostly Black."

Notably, these results differed by the racial identification of the respondents. Black people said that Obama was Black by the rate of 55% to 34% who said he was mixed. The group that was the least likely to call Obama "Black" was Hispanics!

The report also shows what America will look like in coming decades, with the majority of Americans expected to be from non-White racial groups around 2040.

What do you think, is the President Black or Mixed-Race? Is there some reason he can't be both? (That would be my answer.)

Hat/tip to Huffington Post Politics

Los Angeles County Exceeds 10 Million Residents

Los Angeles is the largest county in the United States by population, officially exceeding 10 million residents according to the United States Census on July 1, 2013. According to Bloomberg news, the population of L.A. is greater than that of 43 states! Yet, the executive and legislative branches of Los Angeles county government are controlled by 5 people (no wonder they are called the "The Five Kings").

In fact, Los Angeles is bigger than the sum of the second and third largest counties (Cook: Chicago metro and Harris: Dallas Houston metro) combined. New York City consists of 5 mega-counties in close proximity, but no single one of them gets into the Top 5, although King County (Manhattan) and Queens County (Queens) are 8th and 10th, respectively.

Southern California has the 1st, 5th and 6th largest counties in the United States (Los Angeles, San Diego and Orange).

However, if you measure metro area population, the New York City area is still the largest, approaching 20 million, while Los Angeles metro exceeds 13 million (when you combine Los Angeles and Orange County).

Metro area Population  

1. New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. 19,949,502  

2. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif. 13,131,431  

3. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis. 9,537,289  

4. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas 6,810,913  

5. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas 6,313,158  

6. Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. 6,034,678  

7. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.Va. 5,949,859  

8. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla. 5,828,191  

9. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga. 5,522,942 

10. Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H. 4,684,299 

Interesting list. Curious that Phoenix (Maricopa County) is not in the Top 10, and that even though Houston is the largest city in Texas, Dallas metro is the largest metro area in the Longhorn Lone Star State.

POLL ANALYSIS: Support For Marriage Equality Is Accelerating!

Andrew Flores of the Williams Institute has a piece of the Monkey cage blog that analyzes the latest polls on marriage equality and makes a compelling argument that support for marriage equality is increasing at an increasing rate. (For you Calculus fans, we say that the graph of public support for marriage equality is "concave up"). The key point he makes is that since the Supreme Court issued its two marriage equality decisions (United States v. Windsor striking down the Defense of Marriage Act and Hollingsworth v. Perry effectively nullifying California's Proposition 8) in June 2013 (a date I like to call Gaytterdämmerung) popular support for marriage equality has ratcheted upwards at an accelerating pace.

The graphs below compare  the polling trends using a linear model or a polynomial model. It turns out that a polynomial model fits the polling data pre-Windsor and post-Windsor better than the linear model does for either time period..

This is a direct refutation of the idea that Kevin Drum posited recently that popular opinion on marriage equality has evolved about as rapidly as it did on interracial marriage. It also challenges an idea that Nate Silver promoted awhile back that the shift was due to opponents dying off and being replaced by a younger cohort which is overwhelmingly in support of marriage equality, leading him to predict an increase in support of roughly .5 percentage points per year in national polls.

Having a good estimate of the rate of increase in support for marriage equality is important, because as Flores says:

This has important implications for where public opinion is headed. If the stable linear trend were the right one, then by 2016 just over 56 percent of the public would be expected to support same-sex marriage. However, the accelerated trend predicts that support for same-sex marriage will be about 5 points higher by 2016. It is appropriate to infer that opinions are trending positively and changing exponentially as time goes on.

Regardless how you slice it, this is "good for the gays"!

(However, as a mathematician I truly wish that he hadn't used the word "exponentially" in that last sentence. There's a huge difference between polynomial growth and exponential growth. I think he meant the former when he said the latter. Regardless, it is still a good piece that I encourage you to read in full!)