Showing posts with label Lucie Safarova. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lucie Safarova. Show all posts

Saturday, June 04, 2016

2016 FRENCH OPEN: Muguruza Wins 1st Major, Denies Serena Her 22nd





In not that surprising an upset 22-year-old Garbine Muguruza of Spain defeated 34-year-old Serena Williams 7-5 6-4 in the 2016 Roland Garros women's final to win her very first major title. Any time anyone wins their first major title history has been made, and for the third consecutive major there has been a first-time winner: Flavia Pennetta (2015 US Open), Angelique Kerber (2016 Australian Open) and Garbine Muguruza (2016 French Open). This was after Serena had won 4 consecutive majors in a row. However, by winning this match, Muguruza will rise to World #2 in the WTA rankings and now has beaten Serena twice in two meetings at the clay court major (and their head-to-head is now 3-2 in Serena's favor.) With her loss, Serena is again denied her 22nd major title which leaves her one behind the all-time leader Steffi Graf and she falls to 21W-6L  record in major finals.
Muguruza becomes the second player (after Petra Kvitova) born in the 1990s to win a major title. Who will be next?

WOMEN'S FINAL REVIEW
The match was generally of a very high quality, despite Muguruza's multiple double faults and Serena's clearly limited movement. The two often traded hard-hitting ground strokes, with the young Spaniard able to generate and match firepower with Serena. In the end, the first set was won after Serena was broken (by double faulting on triple break point at 2-all) and Muguruza eventually served out the set. This happened after Serena was basically a break down for most of the set but was able to finally break back to even the match at 5-all. It was a very close set, with the Spaniard winning 42 points to Serena's 41.Things did not get much better for Serena in the second set, with Muguruza getting an early break and holding on. In the 9th game, Serena saved four break points which were also championship points to force the youngster to serve for the match at 5-4, which Muguruza did without losing a point!

The important stats were:
Serena finished with seven aces to four double-faults, hitting 23 winners to 22 unforced errors. But she was just two for eight on break points. Muguruza hit four aces to nine double-faults, hitting 18 winners to 25 unforced errors, and going four for 10 on break points.
This indicates that Muguruza played the big points better, and it was clear for most observers that she was often outhitting Serena from the back of the court. Serena's serve was not as big a weapon as it usually is. I still believe that the day will come when Serena will play her best tennis in a major and win her 22nd title.

2016 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Serena Williams (USA) [1] vs. Garbine Muguruza (ESP) [4]
This is my prediction post for the women's final at the 2016 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted Serena Williams would defeat Lucie Safarova  to win her 20th major title. This year I have correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals, 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals.

Below is my review of the women's semifinals and my preview of the women's final.

WOMEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW
Serena Williams (USA) [1] d. Kiki Bertens (NED) 7-6(7) 6-4.  It wasn't pretty but Serena Williams was able to end Kiki Bertens match win streak at 12. Despite starting off the match disastrously by serving a double fault on break point in the very first game. Bertens was able to nurse her 1-break lead for most of the first set but Serena finally got serious and was able to break back to level everything at 5-all when not doing so would have resulted in losing the set. They then both held serve to reach the tiebreak. Serena was very tough on breakpoints, saving 6 of 7 breakpoints in the first set, including a set point. After jumping to a 5-2 lead in the tiebreak, Serena appeared to relax a bit and Bertens won five of the next six points to earn a second set point at 6-7. However, Bertens ended up losing the last three points of the tiebreaker to lose the first set. The Dutch player's movement was clearly hampered by a left thigh injury, which Serena exploited by deploying drop shots which Bertens several times refused to even try for. However, Serena was clearly not playing at 100% either, with her movement hampered by a hip adductor injury. The second set was pretty straight forward with Serena breaking in the 7th game to go up 4-3 and then held serve to go up 5-3. Despite having three breakpoints that were match points, Serena was unable to finish the match, but was able to serve it out relatively easily in the 10th game, winning the second set 6-4.

Garbine Muguruza (ESP) [4] d. Samantha Stosur (AUS) [21] 6-2 6-4. As I predicted, despite Stosur having won their one previous meeting (which was on clay),  Muguruza was able to come through in this match. However, even I did not expect her to blast past the 2010 French Open finalist to a 6-2 5-2 lead. It's true that she got nervous when she served for the match the first time but as a 22-year-old this is not surprising. The main point is that she  was able to serve out the match on her second try and reach her 2nd major final out of the last four she competed in. That's a pretty impressive record.

WOMEN'S FINAL PREVIEW
Serena Williams (USA) [1] vs.  Garbine Muguruza (ESP) [4]. This is a mouth-watering match up for the French Open final. These are clearly the two best players at this year's clay court major. For the first time, Serena is appearing in the French Open final in two consecutive years, and she has a chance to repeat as champion and win her 22nd major title. With most opponents it is irrelevant what  they do, the match is on Serena's racquet. If she plays her best (or even 75% of her best) it is usually enough to allow her to win most matches. This is not the case against Muguruza. It was just two years ago that the young Spaniard embarrassed Serena by handing her worst loss in a major of her career: a 6-2 6-2 drubbing. Serena addressed that loss in her post-match interview after her win over Bertens, saying that that loss made her a better player, because it pointed out some gaps in her game that needed to be addressed.

It's unfortunate that Serena is not at 100%, but I think that will make her mentally tougher to beat, and since she is so physically gifted, that playing at 80% she should still be able to beat Muguruza. However, unlike the last time they met (in the 2015 Wimbledon final), I don't think Serena can count on her opponent getting nervous and blowing a lead this time. The fact that Muguruza has beaten Serena on this court before means that Serena will give her the proper amount of respect that she deserves. There's no question in my mind if Serena plays her best tennis and Muguruza plays her best tennis, Serena will win. However, it is unlikely that BOTH players will be playing their best tennis at the same time.

I expect Serena to win this match up, primarily because she doesn't want to lose two  consecutive major finals (l. 2016 Australian Open to Angelique Kerber) but I am a fan of Muguruza's and will be happy to see her win a major as well. That being said, I would prefer to see Serena silence all disputes about whether she is the greatest of all time by tying Steffi Graf's record of 22 major singles titles.

MadProfessah's pick: Serena.

Friday, October 30, 2015

WTA TOUR FINALS 2015: Sharapova, Muguruza Undefeated; Kvitova, Radwanska Also Qualify


The Round Robin portion of the 2015 WTA Tour Finals in Singapore is complete and in her first appearance 2015 Wimbledon finalist Garbine Muguruza has gone undefeated, beating the three lefties in her group to reach the semifinals. By qualifying at the top of her group she will meet the second qualifier in the other group. In that group (as I expected) Maria Sharapova parlayed her strong head-to-head record against the rest of the field to go undefeated while somehow top seed Simona Halep failed to qualify when ninja Aggie Radwanska beat her without losing a set, thus insuring that all 3 players not named Sharapova would end with 1 win and 2 losses. But since Radwanska had won a set against Sharapova in her very first match, she advanced and Halep and Flavia Pennetta did not. Pennetta's career is now over but 2015 was by far her very best year on tour, which is an amazing way to go out on top!

There was still drama because after Muguruz outlasted Petra Kvitova 6-4 4-6 7-5 in their first ever meeting all Angelique Kerber had to do was win a set and she would qualify instead of the 2-time Wimbledon champ. But somehow Lucie Safarova was able to take out the indomitable German in straight sets, thus handing her Czech compatriot the second semifinalist spot.

These results mean that Kvitova will face Sharapova and Muguruza will face Radwanska. The latter met in a crucial Wimbledon semifinal earlier this year, which was won by Muguruza as she got up to a big lead (up a set and a break) which she then lost but was able to recover and win her first major semifinal and the right to face Serena Williams. Muguruza has now won the last 4 meetings with the Polish "ninja" (all of which came in 2015). Can Aggie get revenge? (I doubt it.)

The more compelling match is the showdown between Sharapova and Kvitova. P3tra beat Maria in straight sets at the 2014 WTA Tour Finals in the round robin stage the last time the two played but then neither player advanced to the semifinal stage last year. The Russian holds a 6-3 head-to-head lead against Kvitova, I think mostly for mental toughness. Kvitova is not playing her best tennis but maybe getting to the semifinal will relax her and she will hit freely (and not wildly). It's possible that Kvitova could dominate Sharapova or Kvitiva could be wild and flame out in straight sets, or we could have a nailbiting, 3-set thriller between two of the hardest hitters on tour. I hope its the latter, but I still give Sharapova the edge.

MadProfessah's pick: Sharapova-Muguruza final.


Sunday, October 25, 2015

WTA FINALS: Red (Halep, Sharapova, Radwanska, Pennetta) White (Muguruza, Kvitova, Kerber, Safarova)


The final tournament of 2015 is happening on the WTA Tour this week, the "BNP Paribas WTA Finals Singapore Presented by SC Gobal." In one half of the draw lies the two top contenders Maria Sharapova, Simona Halep along with Aggie Radwanska and Flavia Pennetta. In the other half of the draw is Garbine Muguruza and three lefties: Angelique Kerber, Petra Kvitova and Lucie Safarova.

Despite the absence of Serena Williams there should be some compelling matches, but as this infographic demonstrates, the tournament is Sharapova's to lose, or a moment for Halep to step up and prove why she really is the #2 player in the world behind Serena. Sharapova has a combined 19-5 against the members of her group. (Bizarrely, the only player she has a negative record against is Pennetta! But's it only 2-3.)

Matchups I am looking forward to are Kvitova-Safarova, Sharapova-Halep and Kerber-Kvitova.

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

TENNIS TUESDAY: U.S. Open Draw Devastated By Exit Of 13 Seeded Players (10 Female, 3 Male)


The Women's Draw at the 2015 U.S. Open has been devastated by the loss of 10 seeds in the first two days: Maria Sharapova(3) (withdrew with injury before playing), Lucie Safarova(6), Ana Ivanovic(7), Karolina Pliskova(8), Carla Suarez Navarro(10), Timea Bascinsky(14), Jelena Jankovic(21), Alize Cornet(27), Irina-Camelia Begu(28), Sloane Stephens(29) and Svetlana Kuznetsova(30)!

On the men's side there have only been three upsets: Kei Nishikori(4) by Benoit Paire of France, Gael Monfils(16) (forced to retire due to an injury) and Gilles Simon(11) by American Donald Young (coming back from 2-6 4-6 0-3 to win in 5 sets!)

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

TENNIS TUESDAY: Venus Turns 35; Murray, Federer, Kerber Win Grass Titles; Serena Slam?


Venus Williams Turned 35 on June 17
7-time major champion Venus Williams turned 35 years old last Thursday. She is ranked #16 in the World. Wimbledon starts on Monday and the seedings and draw will be released this week. Will they move up the 5-time Wimbledon champ higher than her WTA seeding? I would probably put her at #8.

Grass Court Season Continues With Title Wins By Federer, Murray and Kerber
The King of Grass Roger Federer won his record 8th title at Halle on Sunday, defeating Andreas Seppi in straight sets. It was Federer's 15th grass court title, the most anyone has ever won on the ATP tour in the Open era. Andy Murray also demonstrated his grass court bona fides by winning the Queen's Club Wimbledon warm-up for the fourth time (2009, 2011, 2013, 2015) over Kevin Anderson. Angelique Kerber played one of the best matches of the year against Karolina Pliskova to win her first grass court title of her career in a 3rd-set tiebreak at the Aegon Classic in Nottingham.

Speculation About Serena Slam and Calendar Grand Slam Continue To Grow
World #1 Serena Williams has won the three last major tournaments she competed in (2014 U.S. Open d. Caroline Wozniacki, 2015 Australian Open d. Maria Sharapova and 2015 French Open d. Lucie Safarova). If she wins Wimbledon she will simultaneously hold all four major championships, something she has done before (in January 2003) and would only need to win the 2015 U.S. Open (for the fourth consecutive year to achieve the rare calendar slam, winning all four majors consecutively in the same year. World #2 Petra Kvitova thinks Serena can do it, and so do I.

Tuesday, June 09, 2015

TENNIS TUESDAY: French Open Review; Kvitova Returns To #2, Nadal Drops To #10; 5 Week Grass Season Begins



2015 FRENCH OPEN CHAMPIONS ARE SERENA WILLIAMS AND STAN WAWRINKA
The French Open championships were decided this weekend, with Serena Williams defeating Lucie Safarova to win her 20th major title (and 3rd consecutive) and Stan Wawrinka surprisingly defeating World #1 Novak Djokovic to win his 2nd major title.

KVITOVA RETURNS TO WORLD #2 AS SHARAPOVA AND HALEP SINK
Last year's French Open finalists Maria Sharapova and Simona Halep, World #2 and World #3 failed to make it past the 3rd and 2nd rounds, respectively, this year. As a result, their current WTA rankings were negatively impacted and Petra Kvitova rises to World #2. Serena Williams' spot at the top of the rankings is not really threatened since she has a lead of more than 4000 points and only has 3rd round points to defend at Wimbledon.

NADAL'S RANKING SINKS EVEN LOWER BUT 2015 FUTURE LOOKS BRIGHT
9-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal falls to World #10 in the latest ATP rankings as a result of his failure to defend his 2014 French Open title due to his straights sets quarterfinal loss to Djokovic. However, since he did not play for the rest of 2014 following his 4th round exit at Wimbledon he should be able to improve his ranking through out the rest of the year.

EXTENDED GRASS COURT SEASON BEGINS
Thanks to a long-awaited schedule change, the gap between the French Open and Wimbledon has been extended to three weeks, so that the grass court season is now five weeks long (3 weeks of warm-up and then the 2 weeks at SW19). Nadal is one player who will be playing in at least two of three warm-up weeks, to prepare himself for Wimbledon. He played his first match in Stuttgart and is playing doubles with Feliciano Lopez there. Federer will almost certainly play his grass court warm-up at Halle Germany starting June 15th.

Saturday, June 06, 2015

2015 FRENCH OPEN: Serena Wins 20th Major, 3rd FO Despite Losing Huge Lead Over Safarova




As I predicted, Serena Williams won her 20th major title, her 3rd French Open at Roland Garros, by defeating Lucie Safarova. The win means that she becomes the second player in the open era (after Steffi Graf) to win at least 20 major titles, and that she has won the last three major tournament. If she wins Wimbledon in a month, she will have her second Serena slam, and it is very possible she could complete the calendar Grand Slam by then winning the U.S. Open (for the fourth consecutive year).

However, the match itself was anything but predictable. After hitting the ball cleanly and powerfully for a full hour and wracking up an apparently insurmountable lead at 6-3, 4-1, 40-15 serving, Serena (as she herself put it) "choked." Safarova hit a screaming return winner at that point and Serena started putting the ball into the net and suddenly she couldn't buy a first serve and started double faulting. Okay, we thought, it's a good thing she's up an insurance break, surely she will right the ship when serving at 4-3? Nope! She double-faulted multiple times, including on break point and again Safarova held, to go up 5-4 in the second set. Seren played a strong service game and broke Safarova to serve for the championship, getting to 30-15 (2 points away!) before Safarova struck back again, hitting powerful ground strokes and earning weak replies to break Serena and take the match to a middle set tiebreak. Safarova had played 5 tiebreaks in the tournament to date and won all 5 of them, and the sixth was no different, with Serena continuing to have service difficulties, including a double fault and no aces.

Amazingly the drama was not complete, because Serena started the third set by unceremoniously losing her serve, which Safarova consolidated. Serena at this point was absolutely livid, and received a code violation for the numerous and vociferous expletives she hurled into the Paris sunshine. It must have worked because the American was able to rattle off 6 consecutive games (a repeat of what she did last Saturday when she was down 0-2 in the final set against Victoria Azarenka in the 3rd round) and won the match and the championship 6-3 6-7(3) 6-2.

Serena is now 31-1 for the year and is on a  21-match winning streak at the major tournaments dating back to the 2014 U.S. Open.

Friday, June 05, 2015

2015 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Serena Williams [1] (USA) vs Lucie Safarova [13] (CZE)
The 2015 women's singles championship of the French Open at Roland Garros will be played between Serena Williams of the United States and Lucie Safarova of the Czech Republic. 

Last year I correctly predicted that Maria Sharapova would defeat Simona Halep in the final.  This year I correctly predicted 1 of 2 women's semifinals, 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals and 0 of 1 men's semifinals. 

Women's Semifinals Review
Serena Williams [1] d. Timea Bacsinszky [23] 4-6 6-3 6-0. After a quick quarterfinal win against Sara Errani many observers (yours truly included) believed that Serena would make quick work of the remaining obstacles to her 3rd career French Open title. However, for the fourth time in six matches Serena surrendered the first set of the match, thus forcing herself to make a dramatic comeback to remain in the tournament. This time it was down a set and a break (6-4 3-2) when Serena finally got animated and started breaking her opponent's serve and going for broke on her own shots. Serena was clearly ailing during this match, walking lethargically around the court, coughing repeatedly and appearing wan and forlorn on change-overs. The strategy worked and Serena won the last 10 games of the match to earn  a 4-6 6-3 6-0 win that she claimed was as surprising to her as it was unremarkable to everyone else.

Lucie Safarova [13] d Ana Ivanovic [8] 7-5 7-5. Ivanovic began the match displaying all the qualities that led her to win this title 7 years ago at the tender age of 20: powerful forehand and aggressive hitting on the backhand wing which helped her storm out to a 4-1 lead quickly. But then things slowly got away from her. Safarova started putting more spin on her lefty forehand and exploited Ivanovic's peculiar service toss to begin most of the Serb's service points with tactical advantages and won 6 of the last 7 games of the first, taking it 7-5. Things did not get much better for Ivanovic in the second set as her forehand started losing its potency and her backhand started finding the net instead of the court. However, after squandering numerous opportunities to break back as Safarova buckled under the strain of closing out the match to reach her first ever major final, Ivanovic did manage to even the score at 5-all, only to fail to capitalize on this momentum and lost her serve again. The second time she served for the match Safarova did much better and ended the match on a positive note.

Women's Final Preview
Serena Williams is now 24-3 in major semifinals and is currently 19-4 in major finals. She has only lost to her sister Venus Williams (2000 U.S. Open and 2008 Wimbledon), Maria Sharapova (2004 Wimbledon) and Samantha Stosur (2011 U.S. Open) at the historic stage of a grand slam tournament and has won the last two major tournaments contested (2014 U.S. Open and 2015 Australian Open). She is playing for historic stakes, to reach 20 major titles, only the 3rd player ever to amass such a gaudy total and maintain the possibility of a second "Serena slam" by winning this year's Wimbledon. Can Lucie Safarova, a player whom has never beaten Serena in 8 previous attempts prevent this from happening? Well, technically, yes, she can. Safarova has the game and at age 28, the maturity, to win this match, in a similar way that Stosur won the 2011 U.S. Open final. But for that to happen, she would have to get a lot of assistance from Serena, which we also know is possible, because so far in this tournament Serena has played four 3-set matches whereas Safarova has yet to drop a set despite playing a very strong list of players Sabine Lisicki, Sharapova, Garbine Muguruza, Ivanovic. Safarova has been playing the important points better than all of these opponents, having been in 5 tiebreaks and won them all. Serena is 30-1 in all matches played this year (although somewhat significantly, her one loss has come to hard-hitting Czech lefty who resembles her opponent on Saturday). If Serena is off her game (which given that she has confirmed that she does have the flu) this could become an exciting match. That being said, it's incredibly difficult for first-time finalists to be successful and I find it hard to believe that Serena will not find a way to win her 20th major title on Saturday.
MadProfessah's pick: Serena.

2015 FRENCH OPEN: Djokovic-Murray XXVII Suspended In 4th Set Due To Weather



Oh My Goodness! Andy Murray was at the brink of defeat in the semifinal match against Novak Djokovic at the French Open at Roland Garros but managed to win the last three games of the 3rd set in order to extend the match to a fourth set. Then he went up an early break and lost it. The match was suspended at 3-games all in the fourth. Djokovic leads 6-3 6-3 5-7 3-3. I predicted that Djokovic will in and I still think that he will.

I also predicted that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga would beat Stan Wawrinka but the Swiss continued his mentally tough play to outlast the Frenchman 6-3 6-7(1) 7-6(3) 6-4 in a match that lasted nearly 4 hours. I don't think I have ever gone 0-2 in men's semifinals in a major but there's a first time for everything!

The Djokovic-Murray match will be resumed at 12:30pm Paris time (3:30am PDT). The women's final between Serena Williams and Lucie Safariva will be held at 3pm local time (6am PDT).

Wednesday, June 03, 2015

2015 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the 2015 women's semifinals at the French Open. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals. I will try to predict the men's semifinals in a separate post.

Serena Williams [1] vs Timea Bacsinszky [23]. After surviving three consecutive three-set matches because she lost the first set, the World #1 finally had an easy straight sets win  (as expected) against Sara Errani  in the quarterfinals.
In fact, many believe that the hardest work of winning her third title at Roland Garros since she is an overwhelming 18-1 combined against the three other semifinalists (2-0 against Timea Bacsinzky, 8-0 against Lucie Safarova and 8-1 against Ana Ivanovic). However she still has to get there and complete the task at hand. This should be a relatively easy affair playing someone who is in their first major semifinal when you are playing in your twenty-seventh semifinal, having only ever lost three of those in her career. Serena is just so determined at the latter stages of a grand slam tournament that she basically steamrolls her opponents on her way to collect the trophy. Mad Professah's pick: Williams.

Ana Ivanovic [8] vs Lucie Safarova [13]. Ivanovic is in her first major semifinal in seven years while her opponent is in her second major semifinal in the last year. One of these two players will be competing for a major championship.
Ivanovic has been there three times before while Safarova has never reached that point before. This would usually indicate a clear advantage to Ivanovic but in addition to the occasion you have to deal with your opponent. Safarova has a 5-3 career head-to-head edge overall while the two have split their two clay court meetings to date. More importantly Safarova beat Ivanovic last year at Roland Garros in straight sets. The two have been on tour for a long time so they both know how important (and rare) these moments can be  during a career. However, I think that the fact that Ivanovic is the player who has previously experienced more success at this level makes it more likely that she will end up on top again. That being said, I would not be surprised that if Safarova plays with the same fearless abandon that allowed her to dismiss the defending French Open champion in straight sets she will indeed reach her first major final. But I think the occasion will prevent her from doing so. Mad Professah's pick: Ivanovic.


Tuesday, June 02, 2015

2015 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Quarterfinals Preview


Here are my predictions for the 2015 women's quarterfinals at the French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. I will try to predict the men's quarterfinals in a separate post.

Serena Williams [1] vs Sara Errani [14].  For the third round in a row, Serena lost the first set and had to make a dramatic comeback  to keep her hopes of winning her 3rd French Open alive. She had nearly twice as many unforced errors in her 1-6 7-5 6-3 win in the 4th round over Sloane Stephens. Happily, she will play Sara Errani whom she has only lost one set against in 7 matches, but Errani did win a non-tour match on clay in Federation Cup competition during the Spring on home turf in Italy. Errani has reached the French Open final herself and is averaging an astonishing 15 unforced errors per match in the first four rounds, including a mere 3 unforced errors in her fourth round win (forty less than Serena at the same stage of the tournament). Regardless, this tournament is clearly now Serena's to lose and  I find it impossible to believe that Sara Errani is going to be the player to prevent that from happening. Mad Professah's Pick: Williams.

Timea Bacsinszky [23] Petra Kvitova [4] vs Alison Van Uytvanck. What can you do with a problem like P3tra? No one expected these two players in the quarterfinals, probably not even their own coaches! After winning the first set Kvitova lost the second set 0-6 and while most observers just thought "Oh there she goes again!" no one really expected the 2-time major champion to lose that match against someone who had never advanced past the 3rd round of a major despite being on the tour for more than seven years. One of these two players will be in the semifinals and probably win more money by losing that match then they made all last year on tour. Mad Professah's pick: Bacinszky.

Ana Ivanovic [8] vs Elina Svitolina [23] Simona Halep [3]. The only remaining major champion in the draw other than Serena is Ivanovic and she won her major here at Roland Garros exactly 7 years ago. She has never lost to the young Svitolina in 7 meetings and I don't expect her to do so in a match that will return her to the Final Four in a major for the first time since she won the whole thing seven years ago. However, I'm sure nerves will be an issue since she has lost the last two quarterfinals she has played in during this long barren period (2012 U.S. Open and 2014 Australian Open). Mad Professah's pick: Ivanovic.

Garbine Muguruza [21] vs Lucie Safarova [13] Maria Sharapova [2].  These two hard-hitting players have never met on tour before. This should probably be the best match of the four quarterfinals, although the Ivanovic-Svitolina match-up will be fun to watch as well. Muguruza upset the defending champion Serena Williams in the 2nd round last year on her way to reaching her first major quarterfinal here at Roland Garros. Safarova is playing some of the best tennis of her career and thanks to her stunning upset of defending champion Maria Sharapova, the Czech player will finally break through into the WTA Top 10. I do expect to reach major semifinals and possibly finals in the near future, but not this week. Mad Professah's pick: Safarova.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

TENNIS TUESDAY: Czechs Win Fed Cup; Serena-Woz Friendship, Federer Still In Hunt For 2014 #1 Rank


Czech Win Fed Cup (Again)
The Czech Republic dominated Germany to win the 2014 Fed Cup title; it is the country's 3rd win in four years (2014, 2012 and 2011). Anchored by 2-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova, the 2014 Wimbledon champion scored wins over Angelique Kerber and Andrea Petkovic. Combined with Lucie Safarova's win over Kerber, this gave the Czech team a unassailable lead over Germany.


Serena-Wozniacki Friendship Puzzles Observers
Despite playing against each other in two recent high profile matches (2014 US Open final and the Year-End Championships semifinals) World #1 Serena Williams and former World #1 Caroline Wozniacki continue to be best friends and unafraid of showing the world they can be friendly off the court and fierce competitors off it.


Federer Likely To Reach Year End Championships Semifinals, Year End #1 (Theoretically) Possible
Roger Federer has won his first two matches at the ATP World Tour Finals in London by defeating Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori in straight sets. However since Nishikori and Murray have both won and lost one match each, it is theoretically possible that if Federer loses against Murray and Nishikori beats Raonic that they could qualify. But all Federer has to do is win a set against Murray and he will definitely qualify. Since Nishikori beat Murray it would be more likely that Nishikori could qualify before Murray along with Federer. If Raonic beats Nishikori then Federer and Murray will automatically qualify regardless of the result of their match. Federr could end the year #1 if he wins the Year--End Championships by remaining undefeated *and* wins multiple live rubbers in the Davis Cup final the following week.

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

TENNIS TUESDAY: Tsonga Returns To Top 10 After 5-Year Absence


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga returns to the Top 10 for the first time since March 1, 2009 after his surprising straight-sets win in the final of the ATP Canadian Masters over Roger Federer. Tsonga had an amazing run in Toronto, beating four consecutive Top 10 players in World #1 Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Grigor Dimitrov and Federer. He became the first player outside of the Top 10 to win a Masters series event since Ivan Ljubicic did it in Indian Wells in 2010. No other player had beaten four Top 10 players and won a Masters series shield since Guillermo Canas did it in 2002.

The ATP Masters tournament in Cincinnati has started but Victoria Azarenka has withdrawn, and Venus Williams lost a tough 3-setter against Wimbledon semifinalist Lucie Safarova just days after beating her sister Serena to reach the final of the Rogers Cup.

Friday, July 04, 2014

2014 WIMBLEDON: Women's Final Preview

Eugenie Bouchard (CAN) [13] vs Petra Kvitova (CZE) [6]
The players for the 2014 Wimbledon women's final are set. 20-year-old Canadian Genie Bouchard will face 2011 Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova, 24-year-old Czech lefty. Last year I incorrectly predicted that Sabine Lisicki would defeat Marion Bartoli.  This year I correctly predicted 1 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals, and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals. Below is my preview and prediction post for the women's final.

WHAT HAPPENED: Women's Semifinal Review
Eugenie Bouchard (CAN) [13] d. Simona Halep (ROU) [3] 7-6(5) 6-2. Bouchard becomes the first Canadian woman to reach a major final by being incredibly aggressive on her return position, refusing to receive serve behind the baseline. At one point during the tournament her contact point on service return was 100% within the court. This brought her great success against the talented Halep who got up an early break but then immediately relinquished it. When they got to the tiebreak, Halep was leading 3-2 when play was delayed for 5 minutes to deal with an injured fan in the stands. Halep won the next point to take a 4-2 lead but then only won one other point to lose the breaker and the set. Then the fourth set was just a disaster for people like myself who expected the Romanian to rally, as Bouchard broke at will, running up a 5-2 double break lead and after some small wobbles on match point, the young Canadian was able to serve it out.

Petra Kvitova (CZE) [6] d. Lucie Safarova (CZE) [23] 7-6(6) 6-1. The two semifinals were eerily similar, with one break for each player in the first set followed by a nail-biter of a tiebreak. This was an excellent result for Safarova who had barely ever managed to hold pace with her countrywoman. She was able to reach 6-all in the tiebreak and simply played a bad point that allowed Kvitova to gain  a set point on her serve, which she won with a patented 1-2 play (serve out wide and then hit the return for a winner in to the open court). After that she opened her shoulders and just overpowered Safarova in the next set. Bizarrely, 3 of the 6 opponents that Kvitova beat to reach her 2nd Wimbledon final were fellow Czech players. I wonder if this will impact how they will view her on the Czech Fed Cup team?


WHAT WILL HAPPEN: Women's Final Preview
Eugenie Bouchard (CAN) [13] vs Petra Kvitova (CZE) [6]. The two have played once before, with Kvitova winning on the home turf of her opponent on the hard courts of Montreal last summer, 6-3 6-2 in 86 minutes. The match was much closer than the score indicates, with long points and multiple deuce games. This is good news for Bouchard because she has made a quantum leap since then, reaching 3 consecutive major semifinals, showing a resolve and consistency that her opponent here has really only shown once (in her 6-3 6-4 demolition of Maria Sharapova in 2011, where I was one of the rare people who predicted that result in advance.) That being said, Bouchard is 20-years-old and playing in her first major final. Few players win their first appearance in a major final, and there have been a lot of first time finalists in the last year: Halep lost in Paris, Dominika Cibulkova lost in Melbourne, Sabine Lisicki certainly did not do it in last year's Wimbledon final. Will Bouchard break this string? I think it is very possible that she will. It is fair to note here that Kvitova did do it in her first final, and it is clear that grass is her best surface at this point.

The match-up is interesting. Kvitova's lefty serving and go for broke power versus Bouchard's naked aggression and unbridled hungry, coupled with calmness under pressure. Bouchard has had her path to the final made much easier by Serena Williams upset by Alize Cornet and Angelique Kerbers clutch win over Sharapova. But there's no pressure like the pressure in a major final and Kvitova is more familiar with these moments. In fact, she was two points away from losing her 3rd round match against 5-time champion Venus Williams and came through that test with flying colors. Somehow I think she will repeat this feat tomorrow and win her 2nd major title. MadProfessah's pick: Kvitova.

Tuesday, July 01, 2014

2014 WIMBLEDON: Women's Quarterfinals Preview (part 2)


Here are my predictions for the last two women's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2014. Last year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals. Because of rain delays, the two women's quarterfinals will be played along with all four men's quarterfinals. This year I correctly predicted 1 of 2 women's quarterfinals so far.

Serena Williams (USA) [1] Eugenie Bouchard (CAN) [13] vs. Maria Sharapova (RUS) [5] Angelique Kerber (GER) [9]. For the 3rd straight major, World #1 Serena Williams has failed to make it to the second week, gifting a huge opportunity to Maria Sharapova to win another major, just weeks after the Russian who has lost her last 15 meetings to the 17-time major champion won her 2nd French Open. However, as I suspected, Sharapova  was hampered by the fact that the Wimbledon title was now her to lose. Bouchard is the only player to reach two major semifinals and a quarterfinal this year and the youngster is impatient for even more success at the top of women's tennis. This Canadian youngster will not be unnerved by the prospect of winning her first major, she embraces it. Bouchard destroyed Kerber in their last meeting at the French Open Round of 16 a few weeks ago (giving up only 3 games). I do not think this meeting will be that lopsided but I do think Kerber will have a harder time shaking her epic win over Sharapova and be emotionally spent. PREDICTION: Bouchard.

Simona Halep (ROU) [3] vs. Sabine Lisicki (GER) [19]. The German often always plays her best tennis of the year at Wimbledon and this year is another example of that. She is facing the 2014 French Open finalist from Romania, the most improved player of the last year. Halep was ranked 32 at last year's Wimbledon and is now the highest remaining seed at #3. Lisicki is trying to redeem herself after her painful (and pitiful) showing in last year's Wimbledon final. Halep is the more complete player but Lisicki is by far the more powerful. In battles between offense and defense,  I usually go with offense, especially on a grass court. PREDICTION: Lisicki.

Monday, June 30, 2014

2014 WIMBLEDON: Women's Quarterfinals Preview (Part 1)


Here are my predictions for the first half of the women's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2014. Last year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals. Because of rain delays, only two quarterfinals will be played along with two round of 16 matches on Tuesday. Then, hopefully all the men's quarterfinals and the two remaining  women's quarterfinals will be played on Wednesday.

FOURTH ROUND MATCHES
Angelique Kerber (GER) [9] vs. Maria Sharapova (RUS) [5]. Sharapova leads their head-to-head 4-1 but the two have never met on grass. On paper Sharapova should win this match but for some reason I think Kerber is going to make this one very tough. If it is played indoors under the roof I give a decided edge to the Russian but if it is played in muggy, outdoor conditions I think the German can make things interesting. With Serena Wiliams suddenly out of the tournament Sharapova must realize that she has an amazing opportunity to win another major, and that pressure could complicate things as well. If anyone can put pressure on Sharapova it is Kerber. I am still predicting Sharapova to come through and win this match, but would not be surprised (or displeased) if Kerber did instead. PREDICTION: Sharapova.

Simona Halep (ROU) [3] vs. Zarina Diyas (KAZ) . I follow both women's and men's tennis pretty closely and I have never even heard of Zarina Diyas before. Halep has had very difficulty getting through her three previous round and should be full of confidence as the highest remaining seed in the tournament for the second consecutive major. Diyas dispatched 2-time major finalists Vera Zvonareva in 3 sets in theround before so she must have some game. But still, expect Halep to continue to play to her seeding heree. PREDICTION: Halep.

QUARTERFINALS
Lucie Safarova (CZE) [23]  vs. Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) [4] Ekaterina Makarova (RUS) [22]. This should be an insanely tight match, most likely very ugly. The two are even in their head-to-head. They are both leftys and leftys hate playing other leftys. This is the farthest either has ever reached in a major tournament, although both players have delivered major upsets in major tournaments, with Makrova having beaten both Williams sisters in Australia (in different years). Safarova is well-known as a bit of a wild card, while Makarova is considered a strong, solid player who can be dangerous to higher ranked opponents if they are having abad day. Safarova is always dangerous, but if you weather the storm she usually flames out. In this contest, I think slow and steady will win the race. PREDICTION: Makarova. 

Petra Kvitova (CZE) [6] vs. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [16] Barbara Zahlavova Strycova (CZE) .  Kvitova has already played the best match of the tournament so far in her 3rd round win over 5-time Wimbledon champion Venus Williams. The 2011 Wimbledon champion has  won 19 of her last 21 matches played at this tournament. Happily for her, she is facing one of her three countrywomen who are in the final eight remaining players in the tournament, a player whom she has only lost to once before in four meetings, and should not have much trouble defeating again,on her best surface. I saw Strycova play close up in person at Indian Wells and she is a very good ballstriker so her upset of Wozniacki was not a surprise to me. But there's a reason why she is in her first major quarterfinal and her opponent has reached five consecutive quarterfinals at this tournament.  PREDICTION: Kvitova. 

Saturday, May 31, 2014

2014 FRENCH OPEN: Aggie, Petra and Ana Upset, Murray 7-7 in 5th Set


Day 7 of the 2014 French Open is complete but the third round is not! On the women's side the final 16 is set, with some surprising omissions, such as Agnieska Radwanska[3], Petra Kvitova[5] and Ana Ivanovic[11]. That leaves the top seed in the tournament is Simona Halep[4] and only half of the top 10 seeds left standing. The match of the day was 2009 Champion Svetlana Kuznetsova's win over Kvitova 6-7(3) 6-1 9-7 despite being down a break three times in the deciding set. 2012 Champion Maria Sharapova[7] is now the highest seed in her draw and she faces the bitch she owns 13-2  Samantha Stosur for a place in the quarterfinals. The Russian seems destined for a 3rd consecutive final in Paris.

On the men's side Andy Murray is stuck at 7-all in the 5th against Philipp Kohlschreiber after blowing a 3-0 4th set lead and failing to close out the match. The winner of that match will face the winner of Richard Gasquet-Fernando Verdasco, which was suspended with the Spaniard up 2 sets and even at 2-all in the 3rd. The men's draw looks on course for a men's final between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic although the two both have tough tests in David Ferrer for Rafa and Jo-Wilfried Tsona and Milos Raonic for Nole.

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