2018 US OPEN: Halep(1), Muguruza(12), Kasatkina(11), Dimitrov(8), Murray All Lose early; Serena-Venus XXX Looms

Oh my! The first three days of the 2018 US Open have concluded and with it, most of the first two rounds of play. The tournament started with a bang with World #1 and #1 seed Simona Halep becoming the first top seed to lose first round in the 50 years of the US Open. Halep was my pick to win the whole thing this year, but hard-hitting Estonian Kaia Kanepi knocked her out in straight sets! Other seeded upsets in the early rounds were 2-time major champion Garbine Muguruza, the wily Daria Kasatkina, #9 seed Julia Georges and CoCo Vandeweghe.

On the men's side the wailing was a little quieter with only Top 10 seed to go out was #8 Grigor Dimitrov, who unsurprisingly lost to Stan Wawrinka for the second consecutive first round in a slam. Other male players who lost early are Stefanos Tsitsipas, Kyle Edmund, Jack Sock and Roberto Bautista Agut.

In the first rounds to watch, Caroline Wozniacki got past 2011 champion Sam Stosur and amaria Sharapova ended Patty Schnyder's dream run to a main slam draw at nearly 40 years old. On the men's side the young Canadian Clash between Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime took on a scary turn when 18-year-old Felix was forced to retire due to a racing heartbeat despite splitting the first two sets and competing well in the 3rd.

The marquee event is now going to be the thirtieth matchup between Venus and Serena Williams. I didn't expect this matchup to happen in this tournament and I doubt anyone expected that the two sisters would play 30 matches against each other when they both became professionals well over 20 years ago. Serena leads the head to head 17-12 overall and 9-5 in grand slams. They have only met this early in a major tournament once before, in their first meeting in Australia in 1998. It should be a good match, but I'll pick Serena to get through, even though Venus won their last meeting in Indian Wells earlier this year. They are both playing better than I expected. I didn't really think Venus would get through her first round match with Sveta Kuznetsova or her 2nd round match with Camila Giorgi. as for Serena, after reaching the Wimbledon final her summer hard court prep has been horrific.

Sadly, I don't arrive in New York until tomorrow, so I will only be able to see one of them play on Sunday.

2018 WIMBLEDON: Kerber Outplays Serena To Win 3rd Major

Upending most observer's predictions including my own, Angelique Kerber outplayed Serena Williams 6-3 6-3 to win her 3rd major title and first Wimbledon title (on her second attempt).

The 30-year-old German became the first of her countrywomen to hold up the Venus Rosewater dish as Wimbledon champion since 22-time major champion Steffi Graf won the last of her 7 Wimbledon titles in 1996. By doing so, she denied Serena her 24th major and extended the American's quest to match (and then exceed) Margaret Court's all-time record of 24 major single titles won. The 36-year-old amazed many by returning to a major final in just her 4th match back from a year-long absence from the tour due to a successful pregnancy and difficult aftermath. Due to a historic flurry of upsets, the 25th seed did not have to face anyone in the Top 50 of the WTA until the semifinal, when she dispatched  Top 15 player Julia Goerges in straight sets. Meanwhile, Kerber did not drop a set despite facing a slew of talented and up-and-coming youngsters: 2017 French Open champ Jelena Ostapenko, Belinda Bencic, Daria Kasatkina and 2018 Indian Wells champ Naomi Osaka. This disparity in the competition was one reason some people suspected Kerber might win, but very few would have thought that Serena would fail to win a set in the final. Her loss brings her record to 23-7 in major finals and Kerber becomes the first woman (other than Venus Williams) to beat Serena in two major finals.

2018 WIMBLEDON: Women's Semifinals Preview (and Predictions)

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2018. This year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. I will also predict this year's men's semifinals.

Jelena Ostapenko (LAT) [12] vs. Angelique Kerber (GER) [11]. This should be a great match; the two major champions have never met before on the WTA tour! Kerber played one of the best matches of the tournament in her straight sets win against Daria Kasatkina. Ostapenko has reached her second career semifinal (first at Wimbledon) by not dropping a set and blasting winners into the corners over and over again. Can she continue to do this against one of the great defensive players in the game? We shall see. My default position is usually that great offense wins against great defense, which would indicate Ostapenko has the better chance to reach her first Wimbledon final but I just think that Kerber has shown that she has what it takes to get to major finals, having reached three of them in the same year (2016), winning two, just two years ago. However, she hasn't face Ostapenko before, so maybe all our expectations need to change. PREDICTION: Kerber.

Julia Goerges (GER) [13] vs Serena Williams (USA) [25]. These two played a rather good match at the French Open just a few weeks ago and many of us were actually surprised Serena was able to come away with the win because it demonstrated just how quickly she was returning to a high level of play. Goerges has become one of the top players on tour; she reached the Top 10 this spring has been hovering just out of that circle for the last few months. But appearing in the Wimbledon semifinal is the first real tangible result of her rise in the rankings to show itself at the majors. I think it is very likely the occasion of being there will provide enough of an impediment to her playing er best tennis that it will make what should be a tough matchup for Serena not as complicated as one would expect. PREDICTION:  Serena.

2018 WIMBLEDON: Women's Quarterfinals Preview and Predictions

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2018. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals. I will also predict this year's men's quarterfinals.

Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) vs. Jelena Ostapenko (LAT) [12]. This should be a great match of pint-size powerhouses. Both of these players have reached major finals before. 21-year-old Ostapenko did it in last year's French Open, outlasting Simona Halep, to win her first major. Cibulkova did it way back in the 2014 Australian Open final but also won the 2016 Year-End Championships. These are both elite layers and Cibulkova was miffed when the All-England Club bumped her from the seeded players list by inserting Serena Williams at #25.  And she has a 2-0 head-to-head lead over Ostapenko, although bot meetings came before Alona became a major champion. . PREDICTION: Ostapenko.

Daria Kasatkina (RUS) [14]  vs. Angelique Kerber (GER) [11]. To me, this is a "pick-em" match. The two have split their previous 6 matches, including the two they played this year. In fact, they played in Eastbourne just a few weeks ago and the winner (Kerber) was decided by a 3rd set tiebreak! Unfortunately Wimbledon requires a 2-game advantage in the deciding set so this match may become a marathon. If it does, I give the ultra fit German the edge. However, Kasatkina is the modern-day Martina Hingis with her court sense and shotmaking ability and this may drive her opponent crazy.This is the 20-year-old Russian's first major quarterfinal, and I think experience may be the decider here. PREDICTION: Kerber.

Kiki Bertens (NED) [20] vs. Julia Goerges (GER) [13]. Surprisingly, the lower ranked player, Bertens, holds the 2-0 head-to-head lead here and has been having an amazing run, beating Venus Williams and Karolina Pliskova in consecutive rounds to make her career-first major quarterfinal. Both players are very near their career-high rankings so they are both brimming with confidence. Goerges is at or near the top of the tour in numerous important serve statistics categories, including aces hit (257 for the year). On grass serve is so important that I think that will be the deciding factor here. PREDICTION: Goerges.

Serena Williams (USA) [25] vs. Camila Giorgi (ITA). I'm much more worried about this match then other commentators. I have seen Giorgi play in person and she demolishes the ball, as often as she can, with absolutely no plan B (sorta like a diminutive Madison Keys). Serena is definitely getting closer and closer to her pre-pregnancy form and if she does, no one in the draw has much of a chance to stop her from claiming another title. But she's not there yet, and if she has a serious lapse in any of her remaining matches, she could definitely lose. That being said, she has a 3-0 head-to-head against Giorgi and thus should not be surprised by the Italian player's game even though the two have not played since 2016. (They couldn't have played in 2017 because Serena was basically AWOL all season long after winning the Australian Open.) However, here again experience should help Serena and hurt Giorgi, who is playing in her very first major quarterfinal. PREDICTION: Serena.

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the 2018 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 1 of 2 women's semifinals, 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals, and 2 of 2 men's semifinals. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals; I am also going to predict the men's semifinals.

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] vs. Garbiñe Muguruza (ESP) [3]. These two have faced each other 4 times and Muguruza has only lost once; this happened to have been on clay (in 2015). They are facing each other in a major semifinal so of course there is a lot at stake. However, in addition to a berth in the 2018 French Open final, the winner of this match will grab the WTA #1 ranking. Of course, Halep is the current World #1 and is a 2017 French Open finalist so she is trying to defend both of these achievements. Muguruza is a 2-time major champion and won the 2016 French Open title while Halep hasn't won a major title yet but has reached 2 of the last four major finals: 2018 Australian Open and 2017 French Open. Muguruza demolished Maria Sharapova in the previous round, losing only 3 games in just over an hour. Halep was also impressive in her quarterfinal win but in a very different fashion, surviving a 3-hour war of attrition against Angelique Kerber by losing the first set in a tiebreaker and coming back to win the last two sets fairly easily. Muguruza is playing at a very high level, but I believe that Halep has the skills and mental resilience to survive almost anything Muguruza throws at her. PREDICTION: Halep.

Madison Keys (USA) [13] vs. Sloane Stephens (USA) [10].  This is a reprise of the 2017 U.S. Open final. I don't think very many people would have predicted these two players would become the faces of American tennis after the Williams sisters but it is looking like the Keys-Stephens rivalry will be one that will not only be defining American tennis, but very possibly women's tennis, at the very highest level of competition. Curiously the two have only met twice on tour and Stephens has won both matches. An important feature of the 2017 U.S. Open final was the fact that Madison was completely overwhelmed by the occasion and could not  play anywhere near her best tennis and the match turned into a mismatch. I think her coach Lindsay Davenport will be able to prepare her so that this won' happen this time. The problem is that Sloane is simply a better athlete and mover than Madison and this is likely to be rewarded on clay.  Madison is the better server and the (much) harder hitter, so if the match was on grass she would have a distinct advantage, but it's not and she doesn't. PREDICTION: Stephens. 

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the 2018 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals. This year I have also predicted the men's quarterfinals.

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] vs. Angelique Kerber [12] (GER). These two have faced each other 8 times and split the meetings evenly. Kerber has won the one match they played on clay while Halep won their last meeting in a major (the 2018 Australian Open semifinal). This is basically a pick 'em match. PREDICTION: Halep.

Garbiñe Muguruza (ESP) [3] vs. Maria Sharapova (RUS) [28]. After getting past Serena Williams for the first time in over a decade due to the 23-time major champion's withdrawal in the 4th round, Sharapova's reward is a match with one of the hottest players in the tournament, the #3 seed who is yet to drop a set. Surprisingly, Sharapova has never lost to  Muguruza in 3 matches, but none of their meetings have come since Muguruza broke through and became a major champion herself by beating Serena here two years ago. The two have a very similar style but Muguruza is younger and more athletic. I'd put my money on youth versus experience in this match up.  PREDICTION: Muguruza.

Madison Keys (USA) [13] vs. Venus Williams (USA) [5] Yulia Putintseva (KAZ).  I was in the stands when Venus Williams lost her first round match on the first day. That opened up this section of the draw and the surprise is that the diminutive (but hard-hitting) Putintseva is who was able to take advantage of the opening and reach her first major quarterfinal. Keys has been slipping through the draw under the radar but with her powerful groundstrokes and serve she is a threat on any surface, although one would expect clay would be where her game would be the least effective. However she has not lost a set in 4 rounds. I doubt that will change in this match and so she should reach her first French Open semifinal.  PREDICTION: Keys. 

Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [2] Daria Kasatkina (RUS) [14] vs. Sloane Stephens (USA) [10]. Many tennis watchers are entranced by Kasatkina's game, which is reminiscent of that of Martina Hingis in its versatility and virtuosity. She basically dismantled and befuddled the #2 seed Caroline Wozniacki in the round before to reach her first major quarterfinal at age 20. Stephens is the reigning U.S. Open champion but has not really been talked about much as a potential winner here. But her game is well-suited to clay. Interestingly, these two have played twice before and each came away with a win with Stephens having won their (green) clay court meeting while Kasatkina won their meeting on hard courts this year. Stephens has much more experience at this level, so I give her the edge here but Kasatkina seems unfazed by big stages so I think it will come down to who is the better player on the day, and there's no question in my mind the American is the better athlete. PREDICTION: Stephens. 

TENNIS TUESDAY: Federer Has 1st 2018 Loss; Delpo Wins 1st Masters; Osaka Wins 1st Title, Will Face Serena 1R in Miami

OSAKA WINS NEXT GEN BATTLE WITH KASATKINA FOR INDIAN WELLS CROWN
Defying my prediction to the contrary, Naomi Osaka of Japan defeated Daria Kasatkina 6-3 6-2 to win her first WTA tour title on the big stage of the BNP Paribas Open. Both players had impressive runs to reach with final, with Osaka taking out World #1 Simona Halep, former World #1 Karolina Pliskova and 5-time major champion Maria Sharapova (in round 1!). Kasatkina took out 4 major champions in a row Venus Williams, Angelique Kerber, 2018 Aussie Open champ Caroline Wozniacki and 2017 US Open champ Sloane Stephens!

JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO WINS 1st ATP MASTER TITLE OVER FEDERER
In one of the best matches of the year, Juan Martin del Potro of Argentina demonstrated his fearlessness against Roger Federer by outlasting him 6-4 6-7(8) 7-6(2). This was the 25th match the two have played and is Delpo's 7th win, which have often come in the finals of tournaments (Delpo leads 4-2). Delpo saved an amazing 3 match points (and Federer saved 2 himself) to beat the World #1 and win his first Masters series title after playing in 4 finals (interesting he lost these finals to the other members of the big 4: Nadal, Murray and Djokovic). At 7, Delpo has more wins against World #1 players than any other player who has not become World #1 themself.

OSAKA WILL FACE SERENA WILLIAMS IN FIRST ROUND OF MIAMI OPEN
Osaka's prize for winning Indian Wells? In addition to doubling her career prize money with a $1.3 million check she was drawn to face 8-time Miami Open champion Serena Williams in the first round. Serena lost to sister Venus last week, will she now lose to Osaka this week? I think she might, but my prediction mojo has been weak recently. If she does lose, I do think it will provide excellent motivation for Serena to double her efforts to reach top shape sooner rather than later.

FEDERER LOSES 1ST MATCH OF 2018 (DESPITE HAVING MATCH POINTS)
After eking out a win against Borna Coric to reach his 17th win of 2018, Federer was not able to do so against Juan Martin del Potro despite actually playing better and having more chances to win in the final. He lost a 3rd set tiebreaker and is now a dismal 1-7 in championship-deciding tiebreaks for his career. His 5th set record is not great either. The reason for this (many believe) is that even though Federer is the greatest player of all time, he so rarely is put in positions where he has to REALLY fight in high stakes situations that he has less experience and is less suited to performing his best when it happens. Still, a 17-1 record to start 2018 must be something Federer is happy with; at age 36 he is tied with most wins on tour this year. Interestingly, Juan Martin del Potro is 17-3 for 2018 and Dominc Thiem is 17-4.

ATP RANKINGS MOVERS: DEL POTRO, ANDERSON, POUILLEFederer remains #1 despite not defending his title at Indian Wells and will need to defend his title in Miami if he is to keep the #1 ranking for the entire clay court season. Del Potro is now at World #6, Kevin Anderson is pu to World #8 and Frenchman Lucas Pouille enters the Top 10 for the first time at #10.

WTA RANKINGS MOVERS: OSTAPENKO, KASATKINA, OSAKA, VICKERY
2017 French Open champion Jelena "Alona" Ostapenko is at #5 while Kasatkina is just outside the Top 10 at #11 (career high) and Osaka cut her ranking in half to a career high of World #22. 22-year-old  African-American Sachia Vickery ousted Garbine Mugruza before losing to Osaka and is now up to World #89.

2018 INDIAN WELLS: Osaka-Kasatkina, Federer-Del Potro Finals

The finals of the 2018 Indian Wells are now set. The men's final is exactly what I predicted on Friday. Roger Federer versus Juan Martin del Potro.

This is their 25th meeting and Federer leads 18-6, although Del Potro famously defeated Federer in the 2009 U.S. Open final and also last year in the 2016 U.S. Open quarterfinal last year. However, Federer survived an amazing 3-set match with Borna Coric, coming back from losing the first set and being a break down in the second set and twice in the third set to win 5-7 6-4 6-4.

 MadProfessah's pick: Federer.

 The women's final is exactly the opposite of what I predicted would happen. This time youth was served, with 20-year-old Daria Kasatkina defeating Venus Williams in one of the most hard-fough 3-set matches of the year while fellow 20-year-old Naomi Osaka blitzed World #1 Simona Halep 6-3 6-0. Whoever wins this match will have the best result by a player born in 1997 on the WTA tour since Jelena Ostapenko won the French Open last year. The two have never played before but I think that Kastakina has shown more mental toughness although Osaka has the more powerful game.

MadProfessah's pick: Kasatkina.

2018 INDIAN WELLS: Semifinalists Set Halep-Osaka, Venus-Kasatkina; Federer-Coric, Raonic-Del Potro

The roster of  players in the men's and women's semifinals of the 2018 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells is now complete. The #1 seeds are still in the hunt on both sides of the draw.

On the men's side these are the matchups:

Roger Federer [1] versus Borna Coric
Juan Martin del Potro [6] versus Milos Raonic [32]

MadProfessah's pick: Federer and Del Potro.

On the women's side these re the matchups:

Simona Halep [1] versus Naomi Osaka
Venus Williams [8] versus Daria Kasatkina [20]

MadProfessah's pick: Halep and Venus Williams.

On my visit to Indian Wells on Wednesday I saw both women's quarterfinals featuring Halep and Osaka and was quite impressed with both players. I think Halep likes this court a bit more and this is Osaka's first time at this stage of a big tournament. Kasatkina demolished Angie Kerber on Thursday (6-0 6-2) and can give anyone fits so I would not be surprised to see her win, but after Venus beat Serena on Monday in a solid 6-4 6-3 performance I think her confidence is sky high.