2019 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Marketa Vondrousova (CZE) vs Ash Barty (AUS) [8]

This is my prediction post for the 2019 French Open women's final. Last year I correctly predicted that Simona Halep would defeat Sloane Stephens.  This year I predicted 1 of 1 men's semifinals correctly, 2 of 2 women's semifinals correctly, 0 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly. 

 WOMEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Ashleigh Barty (AUS) [8] d. Ananda Anisimova (USA) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-3. Barty lost the first set to the teen phenom Amanda Anisimova but then was able to remain calm and simply outlast and outplay her opponent to win the last two sets relatively easily to reach her first major final and prevent an all-teen major final, the first since the 1999 US Open with Serena Williams and Martina Hingis.

Marketa Vondrousova (CZE) d. Johanna Konta (GBR) [26] 7-5 7-6(2).  As I predicted, Vondrousova was able to use the complexity of her game to outlast her more experienced and more powerful opponent to win, although it was a rather close match the winner depended on being better on just a few very important points. Surprisingly, the younger player was able to be that player.

 WOMEN'S FINALS PREVIEW

The 19-year-old Marketa Vondrousova has reached her first major final without losing a set over 6 rounds at this year's French Open. In fact, the Czech lefty is playing in her 3rd final of the year (she lost the first two) and has reached the quarterfinal or better of every tournament she played this year. She is the first teenager in a major final since Ana Ivanovic did it in 2007. Vondrousova has a 28-6 record for the year (27-5 since the Australian Open), which is the best on tour. She will face 23-year-old Ash Barty, whom she has played twice before (on grass in 2017 and hard court on 2018) and lost both times without winning a set. Barty will reach World #3 by reaching the final and can get as high as World #2 by winning the tournament, which would make her the highest rated Aussie female player in over 40 years(!) What's nice about the match is that it should be entertaining, since both Barty and Vondousova have crafty, smart games and tend not to overwhelm their opponents with power. Barty in particular is one of the few players who is in the Top 10 in doubles and singles, which shows in her comfort in all portions of the court. That, and the extra experience she has give Barty the edge. PREDICTION: Barty.

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the 2019 French Open.  I have also predicted the women's semifinals. This year I predicted 0 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly. Last year I predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals correctly and 2 of 2 women's semifinals correctly.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Dominic Thiem (AUT) [4]

 Unlike the women's tournament, where there will be a first-time grand slam winner and there are two unseeded teenage players in the semifinals, the men's tournament features a player in his 4th consecutive Roland Garros semifinal, and he's the least accomplished player of the quarter remaining in the draw! This is the 8th meeting between Djokovic and Thiem and the 15-time major champion leads 6-2, including 3-2 on clay. But Thiem beat Djokovic in the semifinal round here 2 years ago in straight sets, when Djokovic was close to his nadir. However, the World #1 has now won 26 Grand Slam matches in a row and there's pretty good chance that he will win his second career Nole Slam on Sunday. Such a feat would cement his status as the future G.O.A.T, ahead of his two contemporaries in the golden "trivalry" of Federer-Nadal-Djokovic. Only the Prince of Clay stands in his way from a potential (record!) 55th meeting with Nadal in the final of Roland Garros on Sunday, the most difficult feat in tennis, one that he has accomplished once before. It's hard to bet against him, and I wouldn't. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] vs Roger Federer (SUI) [3] 

Well here we are! After skipping the clay for the last three years in the second wind of his career to concentrate on winning Wimbledon, Federer surprised the tennis world by agreeing to play the clay season. I agree with most observers who think this will probably be the last time we see Federer play on clay, and this is one reason he is happy to have made the semifinals (and the concomitant ranking points) as well as this last opportunity to meet Rafa on clay, where he has lost 13 of 15 matches the two have played.  Interestingly, this semifinal result is the best Federer has had in the last four slams, having lost in the fourth round in Australia (to Stefanos Tsitsipas) and New York (to John Millman) and the quarterfinal (to Kevin Anderson). Presumably, he expects his results in the next four slams to be decidedly better as he prepares to retire after the Tokyo Olympics (as he chases the elusive Singles Gold medal). This Federer-Nadal XXXIX or #Fedal39 and even though Federer has won the last 5 meetings against Nadal (bringing the head-to-head deficit to only 15-23 thanks to a tennis racquet with a larger head and a more forceful and aggressive topspin backhand) the matchup has never been great for the Swiss Maestro, especially on clay. I would love for Federer to win this match, but I find it hard to even see him winning a set, frankly. And I'm okay with that. I wish the draw had been different and Thiem was in Federer's half and Nadal in Djokovic's. Then I would think there's a VERY good chance of a Federer-Djokovic final. This year, I don't think that's gonna happen. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Draw Analysis and Predictions

The 2019 French Open in Paris starts tomorrow. A year ago I was on my vacation and attended the opening day session (and was in the 2nd row to watch Venus Williams lose to Qiang Wang and Sasha Zverev demolish ). The defending champions are Rafael Nadal (d. Dominic Thiem) and Simona Halep (d. Sloane Stephens). However, the top seeds are World #1 Novak Djokovic  and Naomi Osaka, who have both won the last two major tournaments (2019 Australian Open and 2018 U.S. Open) while Djokovic is going for his second career "Nole Slam"!

The draws have been released and these are the projected quarterfinals

MEN'S DRAW

• N. Djokovic [1] versus A. Zverev [5]
• D. Thiem [4]     versus J. Del Porto [8]
• R. Federer [3]  versus S. Tsitsipas [6]
• R. Nadal [2]     versus K. Nishikori [7]

WOMEN'S DRAW

• N. Osaka [1] versus A. Barty [8]
• K. Bertens [4] versus S. Stephens [7]
• S. Halep [3] versus P. Kvitova [6]
• Ka. Pliskova [2] versus  A. Kerber [5]

FIRST ROUNDS TO WATCH

• Aryna Sabalenka [11] versus Dominika Cibulkova
• Victoria Azarenka versus Jelena Ostapenko
• Venus Williams versus Elina Svitolina [9]
• Feliciano Lopez versus Ivo Karlovic
• Mischa Zverev versus Richard Gasquet
• Taylor Fritz versus Bernard Tomic

PREDICTIONS:

Men's Final: Djokovic d. Nadal.

Women's Final: Halep d. Kerber.

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Simona Halep Wins 1st Major (Over Sloane Stephens)

As I predicted, World #1 Simona Halep of Romania won her first major title today, defeating American Sloane Stephens 3-6 6-4 6-1. This was a seesaw match that resembled last year's final with Jelena Ostaphenko but this time Halep was the one who came back from a set and break down to even the match and then ran away with the deciding set as Stephens seemed to tire and lose focus as she lost the first five games and then avoided the bagel by holding once but lost the match when Halep easily served it out to win the championship.

Halep joins great players like Chris Evert and Kim Clijsters who lost their first 3 major finals and then went on to win multiple majors. She strengthens her case as the best player in the world, having been ranked #1 for most of the last year and is now also a major champion.

HOW THE FINAL WAS WON
The match began with Halep looking extremely tight and making several unforced errors in the first game. One of Stephens' strengths is her metal equanimity and she calmly broke early and consolidated it to go up 3-1. Play stayed on serve with Sloane making very few errors and Halep pressing and overhitting; she lost the set 6-3. She then had the worst possible start to the second set by losing her serve and Sloane again consolidated and went up 2-0. Then, amazingly in the 4th game, serving 2-1 up, Sloane appeared to get nervous and and started making errors to lose the next three games and go down 2-4. However, the plot twists continued because now Halep was unable to maintain her lead and was broken while serving up 4-3 and the score was tied all up at 4-all. Halep then held her serve and in the 10th game earned a breakpoint which was a set point. She won the point and the match was dead even. Stephens definitely looked shaken and Hlep looked determined. She got behind in the first service game of the third set but was able to hold and after that really didn't look back, racing out to a 5-0 lead and eventually won the match 6-1 in the 3rd.

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] vs Sloane Stephens (USA) [10]

Here is my predictions post for the women's final at the 2018 French Open. Last year I incorrectly predicted that Simona Halep would defeat Jelena Ostapenko. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

WOMEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] d. Garbiñe Muguruza (ESP) [3] 6-1 6-4.  This was expected to be a tough 3-setter but the World #1 ran away with the first set, doing to Muguruza what she did to Sharapova in her quarterfinal match. The second set was far more competitive, with Muguruza earning an early break but then was unable to maintain the advantage to the end of the set and was broken in the 8th game. The key turning point of the match was the epic 9th game with Halep serving. Muguruza had multiple breakpoints but was unable to convert, despite the fact Halep was missing more than two-thirds of her first serves. However eventually (after 13 minutes) she was able to hold and serving to stay in the match Muguruza faded quickly, succumbing to a love break to lose the set and the match.

Sloane Stephens (USA) [10] d. Madison Keys (USA) [13] 6-4 6-4. This was a closer match than their match at the 2017 US Open final, because this time Madison could actually control some of her emotions and was able to show the hard-hitting tennis that makes her one of the most feared opponents on the WTA tour. But her good friend Sloane, who is just two years older (25 instead of 23) appears to be more than 2 year more mature than Madison and this shows in how they treat big matches. Sloane has only lost 1 set in her 6 tour finals she has appeared in, while Madison has only won 3 titles. Despite all that the match score line ended up being relatively close, even if the result of the match never felt much in doubt primarily due to the lack of unforced errors coming off the Sloane racquet compared to the large number Madison was hitting.


WOMEN'S FINAL PREVIEW
For the second time in the last three major tournaments both of these players will be appearing in their secod major final. Sloane at  the 2017 US Open while Halep's was at the 2018 Australian Open. (Halep is also appearing in her 3rd Roland-Garros final). Sloane is definitely the mentally tougher of the two, sporting a perfect 6-0 in WTA tour finals while Halep has a less than stellar 16-14 record in finals. However the two have played 7 times before and Halep leads 5-2. Interestingly, most pundits seem to be giving Stephens the edge in this match up but I'm not so sure. I'll be happy with either player winning, but I think I would be happier if Halep were to finally get that inaugural slam win and cement her standing at the top of the women's game. After all, if she loses her first four major finals that may start reducing the belief that she will actually win one of these eventually. Last year Halep was the prohibitive favorite against Jelena Ostapenko and played like it for a set and a half but when thing started to get tight Halep crumbled and lost after being up a set and a break ahead. I do believe she has learned from these experiences and the fact that Sloane is a known quantity should assist Halep in treating this like a regular tour match, in which case she would win easily. The problem is that it's not just a tour match and as the end of the match approaches I think Halep will have even more difficulty handling the pressure. However, with all that being said, I still give her the edge to (finally) win her first major title. PREDICTION: Halep. 

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the 2018 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 1 of 2 women's semifinals, 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals, and 2 of 2 men's semifinals. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 women's semifinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [1] vs Juan Martin del Potro (ARG) [5].  For the second round in a row the World #1 will be facing off against a player from Argentina. As I predicted before the quarterfinals, diminutive Diego Schwartzman was able to end Nadal's streak of 37 consecutive sets won at Roland Garros that extends back to 2015. In fact for a full set and a half, "Little Diego" outplayed the King of Clay on his home turf of Court Philippe Chatrier. Del Potro continued his dominance of Marin Cilic, extending his head-to-head record to 11 and 2. The decidedly not diminutive Argentine is in his first semifinal at Roland Garros since 2009 as a result and will face Nadal. Interestingly, although the two have played 14 times, Del Potro has a healthy 5 wins. Unfortunately, none of these wins have come on clay (oddly, the two have only met twice on that surface including one straight sets win for Nadal way back in 2007 at Roland Garros). The two have also met a fair number of times in major tournaments (four) and Nadal leads that head-to-head 3-1. In fact, the two met at this stage of the 2017 U.S. Open and Nadal prevailed relatively easily on his way to winning his 16th major title. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Marco Cecchinato (ITA) Novak Djokovic (SRB) [20] vs Dominic Thiem (AUT) [7].  In one of the greatest upsets in Grand Slam history, an unheralded and unseeded Italian who had never won a Grand Slam match prior to the beginning of this tournament outplayed and outlasted the 12-time major champion to win in four sets. This result was not due to bad play by Djokovic, it was more of a result of great play by Cecchinato. He is the first Italian male player to reach a major semifinal since 1978. (Of course two Italian female players have won majors in the last decade: Flavia Pennetta won the US Open in 2016 and Fancesca Schiavone won the French Open in 2010.) However now Cecchinato will play the world's second best clay court player in Dominic Thiem, who dispatched an ailing Sascha Zverev in his quarterfinal and is seeking to reach his first major final, at the place where most people think he is most likely to be successful. This will be the Roland-Garros final that we have been expecting for awhile, although it must be said that this is Thiem's third consecutive appearance in the semifinals at Roland-Garros and he is yet to win a set. I'm confident that will change on Friday and Thiem will finally realize his potential to compete for the Coupe des Mousquetaires. Mad Professah's pick: Thiem.

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the 2018 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 1 of 2 women's semifinals, 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals, and 2 of 2 men's semifinals. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals; I am also going to predict the men's semifinals.

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] vs. Garbiñe Muguruza (ESP) [3]. These two have faced each other 4 times and Muguruza has only lost once; this happened to have been on clay (in 2015). They are facing each other in a major semifinal so of course there is a lot at stake. However, in addition to a berth in the 2018 French Open final, the winner of this match will grab the WTA #1 ranking. Of course, Halep is the current World #1 and is a 2017 French Open finalist so she is trying to defend both of these achievements. Muguruza is a 2-time major champion and won the 2016 French Open title while Halep hasn't won a major title yet but has reached 2 of the last four major finals: 2018 Australian Open and 2017 French Open. Muguruza demolished Maria Sharapova in the previous round, losing only 3 games in just over an hour. Halep was also impressive in her quarterfinal win but in a very different fashion, surviving a 3-hour war of attrition against Angelique Kerber by losing the first set in a tiebreaker and coming back to win the last two sets fairly easily. Muguruza is playing at a very high level, but I believe that Halep has the skills and mental resilience to survive almost anything Muguruza throws at her. PREDICTION: Halep.

Madison Keys (USA) [13] vs. Sloane Stephens (USA) [10].  This is a reprise of the 2017 U.S. Open final. I don't think very many people would have predicted these two players would become the faces of American tennis after the Williams sisters but it is looking like the Keys-Stephens rivalry will be one that will not only be defining American tennis, but very possibly women's tennis, at the very highest level of competition. Curiously the two have only met twice on tour and Stephens has won both matches. An important feature of the 2017 U.S. Open final was the fact that Madison was completely overwhelmed by the occasion and could not  play anywhere near her best tennis and the match turned into a mismatch. I think her coach Lindsay Davenport will be able to prepare her so that this won' happen this time. The problem is that Sloane is simply a better athlete and mover than Madison and this is likely to be rewarded on clay.  Madison is the better server and the (much) harder hitter, so if the match was on grass she would have a distinct advantage, but it's not and she doesn't. PREDICTION: Stephens. 

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Quarterfinals Preview (and Predictions)

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the 2018 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals. This year I have also predicted the women's quarterfinals.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [1] vs Diego Schwarztman (ARG) [11].  Schwartzman showed his mettle in the previous round coming back from being hammered  in the first two sets against Kevin Anderson to win in 5 sets. Can the diminutive Schwartzman put an end to Nadal's streak of sets won at Roland Garros? Possibly, yes. Can the Argentine win the match? No. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Marin Cilic (CRO) [3] vs. Juan Martin del Potro (ARG) [5]. Amazing that the one country that has two men in the quarterfinals is not Spain, France or Italy but Argentina! Del Potro is playing excellent tennis, and was very sharp in his straight set dismissal of John Isner in the round before, but Cilic is an even sterner challenge due to his better movement. However, for some reason the head-to-head between these two Big Boys is skewed way in favor of the Argentine. The two have played twelve times and Cilic has only won twice, with 7 consecutive losses sets including all three of their career meetings on clay. Cilic will be motivated to win this match, but his enthusiasm may be dampened realizing that he gets Nadal as a reward. I think this will probably be a tough 4 or 5 set match, which just gives the winner even longer odds against Nadal in the semifinals. Mad Professah's pick: Del Potro.

David Goffin (BEL) [8] Marco Cecchinato (ITA) vs. Novak Djokovic (SRB) [20].  It looks like Djokovic may actually be getting his groove back, even though he is still not back to his colossal form of 2016 (and may never return to that form again). He is a 12-time major champion playing against a first-time major quarterfinalist who has won a handful of Grand Slam matches. Cecchinato did well to take out the very good clay court player David Goffin in the round before. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Dominic Thiem (AUT) [7] vs. Sascha Zverev (GER) [2].  This is the popcorn match of this round. Thiem is widely considered the heir apparent to Nadal on clay and Zverev is the breakout star of the Next Generation cohort, having won 3 ATP Masters Shields before his 21st birthday (by contrast, Del Potro just won his first ATP Master Shield in Indian Wells this year) and has earned his #2 seeding. However, Zverev has played three consecutive 5-set matches to reach his very first major quarterfinal, while Thiem has reached the semifinals of Roland Garros for two consecutive years and is the only player to beat Nadal on clay this year. But that win in Madrid was followed by a relatively straightforward loss to Zverev, so this is not an easy match to call. However, it's hard to see how Zverev has enough to go the full distance with Thiem. However since they both know that isn't it possible Zverev could come out and blast Thiem off the court like he did in Spain? Possibly, but that's awfully hard to do on a clay court. Mad Professah's pick: Thiem.

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the 2018 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals. This year I have also predicted the men's quarterfinals.

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] vs. Angelique Kerber [12] (GER). These two have faced each other 8 times and split the meetings evenly. Kerber has won the one match they played on clay while Halep won their last meeting in a major (the 2018 Australian Open semifinal). This is basically a pick 'em match. PREDICTION: Halep.

Garbiñe Muguruza (ESP) [3] vs. Maria Sharapova (RUS) [28]. After getting past Serena Williams for the first time in over a decade due to the 23-time major champion's withdrawal in the 4th round, Sharapova's reward is a match with one of the hottest players in the tournament, the #3 seed who is yet to drop a set. Surprisingly, Sharapova has never lost to  Muguruza in 3 matches, but none of their meetings have come since Muguruza broke through and became a major champion herself by beating Serena here two years ago. The two have a very similar style but Muguruza is younger and more athletic. I'd put my money on youth versus experience in this match up.  PREDICTION: Muguruza.

Madison Keys (USA) [13] vs. Venus Williams (USA) [5] Yulia Putintseva (KAZ).  I was in the stands when Venus Williams lost her first round match on the first day. That opened up this section of the draw and the surprise is that the diminutive (but hard-hitting) Putintseva is who was able to take advantage of the opening and reach her first major quarterfinal. Keys has been slipping through the draw under the radar but with her powerful groundstrokes and serve she is a threat on any surface, although one would expect clay would be where her game would be the least effective. However she has not lost a set in 4 rounds. I doubt that will change in this match and so she should reach her first French Open semifinal.  PREDICTION: Keys. 

Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [2] Daria Kasatkina (RUS) [14] vs. Sloane Stephens (USA) [10]. Many tennis watchers are entranced by Kasatkina's game, which is reminiscent of that of Martina Hingis in its versatility and virtuosity. She basically dismantled and befuddled the #2 seed Caroline Wozniacki in the round before to reach her first major quarterfinal at age 20. Stephens is the reigning U.S. Open champion but has not really been talked about much as a potential winner here. But her game is well-suited to clay. Interestingly, these two have played twice before and each came away with a win with Stephens having won their (green) clay court meeting while Kasatkina won their meeting on hard courts this year. Stephens has much more experience at this level, so I give her the edge here but Kasatkina seems unfazed by big stages so I think it will come down to who is the better player on the day, and there's no question in my mind the American is the better athlete. PREDICTION: Stephens. 

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Early Rounds Complete

The early rounds of the French Open are now complete as the second Grand Slam of the year reaches it's halfway point on Sunday.

WOMEN'S DRAW
There have been some surprising upsets in early rounds with the most notable being defending champion Jelena Ostapenko [5] losing in the very first round (in straight sets 7-5 6-3!) on the very first day of the tournament (which I attended). On the same day (a few hours before) Venus Williams [9] also lost in the 1st round, also in straight sets, 6-4 7-5, Qiang Wang. Other "early" round losers were Petra Kvitova [8] (l. Anna Kontaveit) and Elina Svitolina [4] (l. Victoria Kuzmova).

Serena Williams is playing in her first Grand Slam tournament since having a child and getting married (in that order :)) and although she had looked scratchy in her earlier tournaments this year (in Indian Wells and Miami) in Paris she has surprisingly looked quite solid and yesterday defeated Julia Georges [11]  to make it to a 4th round meeting with Maria Sharapova who also looked very sharp in taking out Karolina Pliskova [6]. It will be there 22nd meeting and Serena has won the last 18 times the two have played since 2004.

Simona Halep [1] and Garbine Muguruza [3] have looked the sharpest so far in the tournament but Caro Wozniacki [2], Sloane Stephens [10] and Madison Keys [13] are all dangerous contenders still in the draw.

MEN'S DRAW
The biggest seed on the men's side to fall in the early days of the tournament was Grigor Dimitrov [4] who lost in straight sets to 34-year-old Fernando Verdasco in the 3rd round. The story on the men's side has been the travails of Sascha Zverev [2] to live up to his outstanding ATP tour play and make a move in the majors. After cruising in his 1st round match by losing 4 games against Richar Berankis, Zverev has played three consecutive 5-set matches, and saved a match point in the 3rd round. The German is now in his first major quarterfinal.

Rafael Nadal is going for his 11th French Open title and it doesn't look like anyone will be able to stop him from doing so this year. He was forced into a tiebreak in his very first match with Simone Bolleli but since then the King of Clay has not given up more than 3 games in a set.

The other contenders remaining in the tournament are Dominic Thiem [8], Marin Cilic [4], Juan Martin del Potro [6], David Goffin [9] and John Isner [10].

2017 FRENCH OPEN: Nadal Wins 15th Major, La Decima at Roland Garros

As expected, Rafael Nadal won his 15th major and 10th French Open title at Roland Garros today by defeating 2015 French Open champion Stan Wawrinka by the lopsided score of 6-2 6-3 6-1. Nadal's "La decima" is a historic sports achievement because no other player in the Open era had  ever won one of the major tennis tournaments ten times before. (Martina Navratilova won Wimbledon 9 times and Margaret Court won the Australian 11 times but *seven* of those wins were before the Open era began in 1968.)

For the third time in his career (2008 and 2010) Nadal won the French Open without dropping a set, in fact no one even won more than 4 games in any of the 27 sets he played this year, and he only gave up a grand total of 35 games, his stingiest performance yet.

The win means that Nadal is now by himself in second position on the all-time grad slam singles list, at 15, a mere 3 major titles behind Roger Federer who is five years older. There is a real question as to how many more French Opens Nadal can win, because no one expects him to stop competing at the tournament where he now sports a 85-2 record. If he ties Federer's record of 18, will Nadal be considered the G.O.A.T? In my opinion, he would have to surpass Federer's tally to convincingly win that argument, and Is still think that is unlikely to happen, but only time will tell!

2017 FRENCH OPEN: Ostapenko Wins 1st Major By Out(b)lasting Halep

Jelena Ostapenko shocked the world  (and yours truly) by defeating Simona Halep to win her very first WTA Tour title at Roland Garros. Amazingly, she becomes the first player on either tour since Guga Kuerten did the same thing on June 10, 1997 which was the day Ostapenko was born! I was incorrect when I said that the 25-year-old Halep would be the mentally tougher player, because despite leading 6-4 3-0 and having three break opportunities for a 4-0 double break lead, the Romanian player threw her racquet to the ground when she squandered these chances, giving hope to her 20-year-old opponent. Ostapenko held serve and resumed going for broke on her groundstrokes and this time the balls hit the lines and Halep was soon on even terms in the second set and eventually down a break. Halep then decided to abandon her game plan of refusing to hit errors and started going for more, but instead she started to make more errors (and didn't really hit very many more winners). The end result was that Ostapenko won the 2nd set 6-4.

Halep did very to hold serve in the very first game of the 3rd set, despite facing two break points and used this momentum to go up 3-1 in the deciding set. But, similar to Roger Federer against Rafael Nadal in this year's Australian Open men's final, Ostapenko negated the score by holding her own serve and creating relentless pressure in her service return games and ended up winning the last 5 games to win the match 4-6 6-4 6-3. The pivotal point was at 3-all in the 3rd set with Halep serving and facing breakpoint when Ostapenko hit a backhand down the line that was going a foot wide but hit the net and bounced high and onto Halep's side of the net for a winner to earn the break. That was basically the coup de grace because then Ostapenko was able to hold serve to go up 5-3 and basically picked on Halep's weak serve return in the final game, ending with a down-the-line backhand service return winners on match point.

With the win Ostapenko will rise from #47 to #12 in the world. She is a former Junior Wimbledon champion and should be expected to have even better results on faster surfaces like grass and hard courts. Halep rises to #2 in the rankings and Angelique Kerber who lost on the very first day of play of Roland Garros 2017 will remain #1 the day after it.

2017 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Jelena Ostapenko (LAT) vs. Simona Halep (ROU) [3] 

Here are my predictions for the women's final at the 2017 French Open. Last year I incorrectly predicted Serena Williams would beat Garbine Muguruza in the women's final and correctly predicted Novak Djokovic would beat Andy Murray in the men's final. This year I correctly predicted 1 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals, 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals. 

Below is my review of the women's semifinals and my preview of the women's final.

WOMEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Jelena Ostapenko (LAT) d. Timea Bacsinszky (SUI) [30] 7-6(4) 3-6 6-3.  The birthday bash between the two birthday girls was won by the younger player, to my surprise. Ostapenko, who turned 20 years old on Thursday, has now hit 245 winners in 6 matches, which is more than any of the male remaining players in the draw.  She outlasted her more experienced and 8-years-older former doubles partner to reach her very first major final, the lowest ranked player to do so in well over thirty years. This was a surprise because the young Latvian was playing in her very first major semifinal while the 28-year-old Swiss player was in her 2nd major semifinal at Roland Garros. It was expected that Bacsinszky would figure out a way to win this match, and she did do well to win the second set and at least make it a match instead of a mismatch. In the end, though, Ostapenko's power was too much for Bacsinszky to handle.

Simona Halep (ROU) [3] d. Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [2] 6-4 3-6 6-3. This was a contest with the World #1 ranking at stake. Pliskova needed to win to become World #1, while Halep needs to win this match and the final in order to claim the top spot in women's tennis. Halep demonstrated what an advantage her movement and defensive prowess gives her over one of the hardest hitters on the tour who is most definitely NOT one of its best movers. In fact, Halep has a pretty good record (13-3) against other Big Babes like Madison Keys, Petra Kvitova and Pliskova. The Czech player did well to sneak out a break and a hold to snatch the second set but Halep displayed her newly developed mental toughness and just continued her astounding ball retrieving to force Pliskova to go for another line and eventually hit another error (attempted winner) and lose the match.

WOMEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

Simona Halep (ROU) [3] vs. Jelena Ostapenko (LAT). It must be admitted that Simona Halep is the favorite to win this match. Ostapenko is unseeded and an unseeded player has not won a major final on the women's side in the open era, although it has happened (rarely) on the men's side  (Goran Ivanisevic at Wimbledon in 2001, Boris Becker at Wimbledon in 1985). But this does not mean that the hard-hitting Latvian has no chance of winning on Saturday. Anyone who is hitting more winners than anyone else in the tournament, and whose average speed of her forehand is faster than World #1 Andy Murray's clearly has a chance to win any match she plays. She will be facing Halep, who faced a match point in the second set tiebreaker against another hard-hitting player in the quarterfinal, Elina Svitolina. Ostapenko should take a look at that match because Svitolina basically blew Halep off the court for nearly 90 minutes, wracking up huge 5-0 and 5-1 leads in the first two sets. The key point, though, is that despite facing those huge deficits Halep did not give up and ended up winning that match by winning the deciding third set 6-0!


I expect Halep will win this match, but it will probably not be in straight sets. I think Ostapenko will have a very good first set but that as the finish line gets closer she will get more and more nervous and Halep will repeat her performance against Svitolina (without allowing such a huge deficit this time). It is also very possible that Halep will follow the blueprint of her match with Pliskova and stay close enough to her hard-hitting opponent to frustrate her with her defense and draw errors. I think this will be harder to do, because Ostapenko moves better than Pliskova and Bacsinsky tried this game plan against Ostapenko and it didn't work out that well, but Halep has many more weapons than Bacsinszky. I do believe that Halep is the mentally tougher player, it says something that Ostapenko has been in 3 career finals in the last 9 months and has lost all three. Halep is a woman on a mission to finally win her first major, and the bonus is that she will claim the World #1 ranking as well.

MadProfessah's pick: Halep.

2017 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the 2017 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals and correctly predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals. This year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals. I have also predicted the women's semifinals.

Andy Murray (GBR) [1] vs. Stan Wawrinka (SUI) [3]. These two over-30 players have played seventeen times before, and the World #1 leads the Word #3 10-7. Interestingly this match is a rematch of last year's semifinal in which I correctly predicted Murray would prevail. However last year Murray was having much more success on the clay and other courts, having won the Rome title. This year, neither player has been playing that well but Wawrinka is yet to drop a set at Roland Garros while Murray has dropped 3 but never more than one in any match so he has not been in danger of losing. That being said, Wawrinka has already won this tournament (d. Djokovic in 2015 French Open) and leads 2-1 in their clay meetings while Murray leads 3-2 in 5-set matches. I would be shocked if this match does not go to 4 if not 5 sets, if it doesn't then almost certainly Wawrinka would have bashed Murray off the court. That is unlikely to happen, but I believe the end result will be the same, leading to Wawrinka's 4th major final. Mad Professah's pick: Wawrinka.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [4] vs. Dominic Thiem (AUT) [6]. This is the popcorn match of the clay court season, the equivalent to the Simona Halep-Elina Svitolina quarterfinal on the women's side between the two players with the best clay court records this year. Thiem is in his second consecutive Roland Garros semifinal, after dispatching the defending French Open champion in surprisingly easy fashion without dropping a set against Novak Djokovic. There is no question Nadal is the best clay court player of all time, and now sports an unbelievable 77-2 record at the French Open. His two losses came in 2009 to Robin Soderling and 2015 to Novak Djokovic. In fact, Nadal losing on clay at any tournament is a rare event. Interestingly, though, Thiem has had 6 meetings with Nadal on the surface and won twice (making him one of the very few active players to have multiple wins over Nadal on clay), including just a few weeks ago in the Rome quarterfinal. It should be noted that beating Nadal in best-of-5 is something that Roger Federer has never done, for example. I doubt it is something that Dominic Thiem will do tomorrow (but it is something I believe he will do in the future). Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

2017 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the 2017 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals. This year I have also predicted the women's quarterfinals.

Andy Murray (GBR) [1] vs Kei Nishikori (JPN) [8]. These two have played ten times on tour before, and the 3-time major champion leads their rivalry 8-2 however the last time they played was in the 2016 U.S. Open quarterfinals and Nishikori won a come-from-behind victory 7-5 in the fifth set. In 2017 both Murray and Nishikori have not been playing well, with the current World #1 amassing a 16-7 record (1 title, in Dubai) while Nishikori is 20-8 (no titles). Murray reached the final here last year and he has exceeded expectations to reach the quarterfinal but he actually has a pretty good chance to reach the final again this year. Mad Professah's pick: Murray.

Stan Wawrinka (SUI) [3] vs Marin Cilic (CRO) [7].  Both Cilic and Wawrinka have been blasting their way through the draw for four rounds without dropping a set, so clearly for at least one of them this streak is going to have to end. Surprisingly, these two have played 13 times and Wawrinka has won all but two of these matches. Clay is one of Wawrinka's stronger surfaces, and two years ago he won this title by shocking Djokovic in the final after the Serb easily defeated Nadal in the quarterfinal. He's looking in a similar form and will almost certainly be looking forward to a rematch of last year's semifinal he lost to Murray last year to see if he can flip the script. Mad Professah's pick: Wawrinka.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [4] vs Pablo Carreno Busta (ESP) Milos Raonic (CAN) [5]. This is the only quarterfinal which is missing one of the Top 8 seeds, with the surprising Pablo Carreno Busta defeating the #5 seed Milos Raonic to grab his first major quarterfinal. Sadly, his reward is to play his countryman who clearly takes extra pleasure at dominating other Spaniards. Nadal has only lost once on clay and even though he has not won a major since 2014, he is the prohibitive favorite to win his tenth Roland Garros this year. Any other result would be the upset of the decade. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [2] vs Dominic Thiem (AUT) [6].  This match-up should be the most intriguing and exciting of the four quarterfinals. Thiem is the only player to have defeated Nadal on clay this year and last year had his breakthrough into his first major semifinal here at Roland Garros and is now firmly ensconced in the Top 10. It must be noted that Thiem is another one of the four quarterfinalists who has not dropped a set at this year's French Open but also note that last year he was completely outclassed by Djokovic in that major semifinal. However neither Thiem nor Djokovic are the same player they were last year, with Thiem is playing much better than last year while Djokovic is playing much worse. Although Thiem has won two consecutive sets in one match against Nadal, Djokovic has won three consecutive sets at Roland Garros, and he is the only active player on tour to do that. However, ever since winning the Nole Slam here last year Djokovic has not been the same player and it is not clear which player has the best chance at stopping Nadal from winning his 15th major. My guess is that it will be whomever wins this match. Mad Professah's pick: Thiem.