2019 US OPEN: Draw Analysis and Preview

The final major tournament of 2019 starts in New York City tomorrow. As usual, I will be attending the tournament during the holiday weekend. The defending champions are Novak Djokovic and Naomi Osaka, who come in to this year's tournaments as the #1 seeds also.

Here are the projected quarterfinals if results strictly follow seedings (which is very unlikely to happen).

MEN'S DRAW PROJECTED QUARTERFINALS

• (1) Novak Djokovic vs (5) Daniil Medvedev
• (3) Roger Federer vs   (7) Kei Nishikori 
• (4) Dominic Thiem vs (8) Stefanos Tsitsipas 
• (2) Rafael Nadal     vs (6) Sascha Zverev

WOMEN'S DRAW PROJECTED QUARTERFINALS

• (1) Naomi Osaka vs (7) Kiki Bertens
• (4) Simona Halep vs (6) Petra Kvitova
• (3) Karolina Pliskova vs (5) Elina Svitolina
• (2) Ash Barty vs (8) Serena Williams

Another aspect of analyzing the draw is looking at the exciting first round draws. This year there's one that is sucking all the attention: Serena Williams versus Maria Sharapova, in their 23rd meeting (Serena leads 19-3, with Sharapova getting a victory from the 2018 French Open 4th round  match which did not happen because Serena withdrew). Although this is a blockbuster match-up, I see no reason why the result should be any different from any other match that Serena has actually played against Serena for the last 15 years, which is basically 18 consecutive wins.

FIRST ROUNDS TO WATCH

S. Williams (8) versus M. Sharapova

A. Sabalenka (9) versus V. Azarenka

S. Kenin (20) versus C. Vandeweghe 

D. Shapovalov versus F. Auger-Aliassime (18)

R. Opelka verus F. Fognini (11)

S. Tsitsipas (8) versus A. Rublev

N. Kyrgios (28) versus S. Johnson

PRE-TOURNAMENT PICK

I have made my pre-tournament prediction for the women's title: S. Williams d. S. Halep 

I have also made my pre-tournament prediction for the men's title: R. Federer d. R. Nadal.

TENNIS TUESDAY: #Deliciano Closes In On Top 10; Masha Beats Vika; Serena-Sloane Clash In the Desert

Feliciano Lopez Reaches Career High #12 Ranking
Feliciano Lopez, at age 33, is playing some of the best tennis of his career. He is currently ranked #12 on the ATP Tour, the highest ranking of his career. He has won 4 career titles so far, with two of them coming at the Wimbledon warmup in Eastbourne the last two years.

Sharapova-Azarenka Rivalry Now Even At 7-All
Former Indian Wells champions met in the third round of this year's tournaments and even though the score was 6-4 6-3, it took the Russian #2 six match points to put the 2-time Australian Open champion out of the tournament. The win levels the career head-to-head between Vika and Masha at 7-all.

Serena Returns To Indian Wells, Will Meet Sloane Stephens For QF Spot
The last time fellow Americans Sloane Stephens and Serena Williams met was the 2013 quarterfinals of the Australian Open and it was the announcement of Stephens arrival on the big stage of women's tennis. The last two years have not been good for the younger American, now ranked #42 but she has been playing well this week, dismissing Angelique Kerber and Svetlana Kuznetsova in her last two rounds. I'm sure Serena will be extra-motivated to make a statement in this match. She didn't end her 14-year boycott of this tournament to lose in the round of 16!

Kei Nishikori and Andy Murray Tussle For World #4
Kei Nishikori and Andy Murray have been battling back and forth for the #4 spot on the ATP Tour. Currently, Murray leads by a razor thin 10 points. (By comparison, World #1 Novak Djokovic is literally thousands of points ahead of World #2 Roger Federer). It will be interesting to see if Kei can permanently disrupt the Big Four hold on the top of Men's Tennis.

2014 AUS OPEN: The Draw Is Released!

The draw for the 2014 Australian Open has been released and there are some interesting features.
Here is my analysis of the women's draw:

World #1 Serena Williams has a pretty good draw, with 2013 champion Victoria Azarenka and World #3 Maria Sharapova in the other half of the draw. Serena's potential quarterfinal opponent is Sara Errani, whom she dropped one game against in her epic beatdown on the way to the 2013 Roland Garros final last year. However, in the other quarter in Serena's half are some powerful (but erratic) players like World #4 Li Na, who often plays her best tennis in Australia, and World #6 Petra Kvitova who will face off in an epic quarterfinal for the right to play Serena in a semifinal. However, the bottom half of the draw is also interesting, with an Azarenka-Sharapova semifinal looming (a reprise of the 2012 Australian Open final won by Vika). However before that happens Sharapova has to get past Bethanie Mattek-Sands in round 1 but if she does she sohuld have smooth sailing until she faces the winner of Simona Halep and Jelena Jankovic in the quarterfinals. Vika has a slightly tricker road with Americans Jamie Hampton in the 3rd round and Sloane Stephens in the 4th round but Azarenka dispatched both of these players on her way to winning the title last year, although they both acquitted themselves well. Aga Radwanska would be her quarterfinal opponent. If seedings hold then the four quarterfinals should be Serena-Errani, Li-Kvitova, Azarenka-Radwanska and Sharapova-Jankovic.

In the men's draw things are even more unbalanced then on the women's side.

World #1 Rafael Nadal, World #4 Andy Murray, World #5 Juan-Martin del Potro and World #6 Roger Federer are all in the top half of the draw, with Murray-Federer, del Potro-Nadal the potential quarterfinals. However, Nadal has a pretty rough draw, with a 1st round meeting with Australia's #1 player Bernard Tomic, followed by Gael Monfils in the 3rd round and Lleyton Hewitt or Kei Nishikori in the 4th round and the winner of Milos Raonic and Del Potro in the quarters. The Federer-Murray quarter in Nadal's half may not even happen because Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could take out Federer in the 4th round while John Isner could eliminate Murray in the same round. Federer also has potential land mines in the presence of Sergiy Stakhovsky, Radek Stepanek and Gilles Simon in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

The bottom half of the draw contains 3-time defending champion Novak Djokovic who basically only has to worry about a quarterfinal match-up with Stanislas Wawrinka (the two played the match of the tournament and perhaps the match of the year in last year's 4th round but I doubt lightning will strike two years in a row) and then a semifinal with the winner of David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych which basically assures him of 5th final appearance in Melbourne, where he is 4-0 so far. The Ferrer-Berdych quarterfinal may be split up by Jerzy Janowicz who has the game to beat just about anyone if he is having a very good day. This is almost certainly the section of the draw where a surprise quarterfinalist or semifinalist could emerge.

The interesting first round matches to look out for are (of course) Nadal-Tomic, Ivan Dodig versus Ivo Karlovic, Tommy Robredo versus Lukas Rosol (best-looking duo!) and Ryan Harrison versus Monfils.

On the women's side, there are multiple 1st round matches to note: Serena's opener versus hometown youngster Ashleigh Barty might be tricky for the 5-time Aussie Open champ, Samantha Stosus plays Klara Zakapalova in the 1st round after losing to her in Hobart today, Ekaterina Makarova versus Venus Williams, Francesca Schiavone versus Dominika Cibulkova and Sloane Stephens versus Yaroslava Shvedova.

2013 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Final Preview

Serena Williams (USA) [1] vs Maria Sharapova (RUS) [2]. 

This year I have correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals and 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals at Roland Garros. Last year I correctly predicted Maria Sharapova would win the final against Sara Errani. Below is my preview of the 2013 French Open final.

This (mis)match is a reprise of the recent Madrid final which was won easily by Serena. In fact, the World #1 is on a 30-match winning streak (the longest of her career) and is clearly playing some of the best tennis of her life. If Sharapova couldn't beat Serena on a hard court when up a set and a break in Miami, what chance does she have against her on a clay court?

Another indication of how mismatched the two are in Saturday's final. Last year, Sharapova beat Sara Errani 6-3 6-2 in 90 minutes to with the 2012 Roland Garros title. Serena beat Errani on Thursday in this year's semifinal 6-0 6-1 in almost half the time. She hit 40 winners in 46 minutes. If Serena can do that to one of last year's French Open finalists, what will she do when she faces the other one? Remember, Serena beat down Sharapva 6-0 6-1 in last year's Gold Medal match at the All-England Tennis Club. Mary Joe Fernandez put it well on television yesterday. Just how Sharapova enjoys playing (and beating) Jelena Jankovic (which she did in this year's quarterfinals), Serena enjoys playing and beating her Russian nemesis.

Sharapova hasn't been able to beat Serena since 2004, losing 12 consecutive times, despite holding leads in several of those matches, some of which have been in late stages of Grand Slams as well. Let me repeat that. In 9 years the two have played a dozen times and Serena has won every single time. In fact, Sharapova has won just three sets in that time, although one of those sets occurred this year in Miami. But even in that match, Serena ended up winning the last 9 games, stuffing a bagel down Maria's throat.

The two have met in 7 finals, with Serena winning 5 of them and they have played 4 times in grand slams and Serena lead 3-1. Serena is playing in her 20th major final and sports a 15-4 record. Only Sharapova, Samantha Stosur and her sister Venus Williams (3 times) have beaten her at the stage of a slam. Sharapova has a much more pedestrian 4-3 record in the 7 major finals she has played in.

In today's final I will be surprised if Sharapova get more than 6 games, total, and I most definitely do not expect her to win a set. But, after Serena's surprising loss to Stosur in the 2011 U.S. Open final, you never know what could happen. But, I would bet a lot of money that Serena will be holding up the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen for the second time, and will be one step closer to being named the Greatest Of All Time.

Mad Professah's prediction: Serena in 2 sets.

2013 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview

The women's semifinals are now set at the 2013 French Open. This year, I predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly and 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly. Last year I correct predicted 1 of 2 women's semifinals and 2 of 2 men's semifinals. I will also preview the 2013 French Open men's semifinals.

Serena Williams (USA) [1] vs Sara Errani (ITA) [5]. Errani surprised yours truly and other observers of the game by overcoming her lifetime record of 0-28 against Top 5 players to defeat World #4 Aggie Radwanska. This may be because the diminutive Italian is now ensconced in the Top 5 of the WTA rankings herself. For the second consecutive year she is in the semifinals of Roland Garros, and her 3rd major semifinal in the last year. Unfortunately, she will be facing someone who easily beat her in the Madrid semifinals less than a month ago and whom she has only ever won a single set out of the 11 that they have played.

It was the exceedingly talented Russian Svetlana Kuznetsova who demonstrated what one needs to do to compete with the World #1. After losing the first set quickly 6-1, Sveta was able to break Serena's serve for the first time in the tournament in the second set, and then she did it again to go up 4-0! Eventually she was able to even up the match by winning the second set. The key point of the match came in the 3rd game of the deciding set when Serena was down 0-2 and serving. She repeatedly faced breakpoints to go down 0-3 but through sheer will she was able to finally hold serve and reeled off 5 games in a row to put remove all doubt from her place in the semifinals. This was probably the best match of the tournament, and was the most mentally significant for Serena because she had lost the last four quarterfinals she played at Roland Garros. Serena has only lost once in a semifinal here, and  it is extremely unlikely that will happen this year. Mad Professah's pick: Serena.


Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [3] vs Maria Sharapova (RUS) [2].  Despite suffering the indignity of being forced to eat a bagel in the first set of her quarterfinal match against her least favorite person on tour, Jelena Jankovic, Sharapova was able to come through and eventually win the match 0-6 6-4 6-3 and reach her third consecutive semifinal here in as many years. Azarenka had an easier time to reach her first Roland Garros semifinal by dispatching Maria Kirilenko who is probably just satisfied that her singles results have elevated her to the WTA Top 10. This is a very hard match to call.

Sharapova and Azarenka have played 12 times in their career, with Vika leading Masha 7-5 overall, but the Russian leads the Belarussian 2-0 on clay. Sharapova is the defending champion here but Azarenka won the first major of the year in Australia. On most surfaces I would give the edge to Azarenka, because she is generally the better mover and she matches Sharapova's power on both wings. On clay, however, Sharapova has demonstrated that she is now comfortable and has dramatically improved her defensive abilities on this surface. I believe it will be a very close match but that Sharapova will reach her 2nd consecutive Roland Garros final. Mad Professah's pick: Sharapova in 3 sets.

INDIAN WELL 2013: Sharapova Wins 2nd Title

As I predicted, Maria Sharapova demolished Caroline Wozniacki 6-2 6-2 at the 2013 BNP Paribas Open final to win her first hard-court title in more than a year at Indian Wells. Sharapova will rise to #2 in the WTA Tour rankings on Monday, surpassing Victoria Azarenka on Monday, still behind World #1 Serena Williams, who famously (and, I would argue,  deservedly) boycotts the WTA Premiere Mandatory Event every year.

2013 AUS OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview

The women's semifinals are now set at the 2013 Australian Open. Last year, I predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly. This year I  correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [1] vs Serena Williams (USA) [3] Sloane Stephens (USA) [29]. For only the second time since 2001, Serena Williams will not be playing in the finals of the Australian Open during an odd-numbered year. The 31-year-old 5-time Australian Open champion (2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010) lost to the 19-year-old American Sloane Stephens playing in her very first major quarterfinal in a tight, dramatic 3-set match 3-6 7-5 6-4.

Serena was definitely nowhere near her best form during this encounter since she had rolled her ankle in the first round of the tournament and she had also played a lot of tennis the day before losing a long 3-set match in the women's doubles quarterfinals with her sister Venus. That being said, Stephens kept her cool for its entirety while playing the most important match of her young career, against one of her idols and heroes. (It helped that she had lost a tight 4-6 4-6 match against Serena at the Brisbane warm-up tournament just a few weeks before.) . On the other side of the net, Serena got a code violation for demolishing her racket after she lost the second set despite starting it with a comfortable early break and a 2-0 lead. According to her press conference afterwards, Serena mentioned that she had actually hurt her back a few days earlier and during a point in the 2nd set it went out completely. It was the first time in her career that Serena had ever lost to an American player younger than she is and Sloane became the first American teenager to reach a major semifinal since Serena did it in the semifinals of the 2001 US Open. Stephens will face Azarenka, the current world #1 for the very first time. That the two have never met before is another indication of just how rapid Stephens ascent has been. In her quarterfinal, Azarenka reached her 5th career major semifinal by eking out a tough first set against Svetlana Kuznetsova despite a handful of service breaks and then running away with the second set to win 7-5 6-1. Azarenka is the current defending champion at this tournament and should be able to use her confidence and experience to get past the fast-rising American star. If Sloane can match Serena's power she can definitely match Azarenka's, and she has even more power (is most definitely a better mover) than the young American Jamie Hampton who may have been on the way to beating Azarenka in the 3rd round before her body failed her. It is not within the possibility that Stephens could reach her first grand slam final by winning this match, although the odds are heavily stacked against that happening. But it looks like it is simply only a matter of when, not if, the 19-year-old will be competing for major titles. Mad Professah's Pick: Azarenka in 2 sets.
Na Li (CHN) [6] vs Maria Sharapova (RUS) [2].  Sharapova has been demolishing her competition. She has not lost a single set, in fact she hasn't even had a set point against her, since no one has even been closer than 3-all in any of the 10 sets the Russian has played this tournament. She has won half of these 10 sets with the score 6-0 and another two 6-1.

She has lost a record nine games in 10 sets. Then again, she has had an absolutely dream of a draw, with her only brief test coming in the third round against Venus Williams and the only other seeded player she faced was #19 seed Ekaterina Makarova whom she had never lost to before. Her opponent will be Li Na in the semifinals who ended the unbeaten run of Agnieska Radwanska in two close sets. Li and Sharapova met three times in 2012 and Sharapova won all 3 times. They played one of the best matches of the year in the finals of Rome but the other two matches were on hard court and were not even close. However, the two have not met on court since Li started being coached by 7-time major champion Justine Henin's former coach Carlos Rodrigues who is trying to make the hard-hitting Chinese player more aggressive and not so reliant on her superior movement. Li's main problem is her (lack of) consistency which leads to mental anguish on the court (sort of similar to Andy Murray). I think it's still too early to see the full results of the new coaching relationship but I believe Li will have a very good year, and will compete very well against Sharapova, but not enough to win, Mad Professah's pick: Sharapova in 3 sets.

WTA TOUR FINALS: Serena Wins 3rd YEC, 58-4 in 2012

As expected, Serena Williams continued her domination of the top of women's tennis by dismissing World #2 Maria Sharapova 6-4 6-3 to win her 3rd WTA Tour year-end championships. This was Serena's 7th title of 2012 and her 58th tour win for the year (balanced with an awe-inspiring low total of only 4 losses).

Serena again re-affirmed her domination of Sharapova, winning her 10th match in 12 meetings (the only losses to the Russian coming in two huge matches, the 2004 Wimbledon final and the 2004 WTA Tour year-end championship match, when Sharapova was a teenage phenom). You read that right, Serena has not lost to the 4-time major champion for 8 long years, and they both know it every time they step on to court together. Playing Sharapova concentrates Serena's mind so that her unforced errors drop precipitously while her deadly accuracy and power remain, a lethal combination which resulted in 40 winners (to a mere 14 errors) in the 89 minute championship match, while never even facing a break point.

But really 2012 was the year the now-31 year old Serena played an entire tour season completely healthy and committed to the game in a long time and the results are clear and convincing. Serena ended up winning 47 of her last 49 matches in 2012 and went on an 11-0 run against the Top 2 players in the world. During that time she won 2 majors and 2 Olympic gold medals.

However, by winning the year-end championships for the 3rd time at age 31, Serena became the oldest player to ever win the tournament and joined Steffi Graf, Martina Navratilova, Monica Seles, Kim Clijsters and Chris Evert as 3-time winners. She joined Victoria Azarenka as the only other player to win $7 million in a season.

As long as she remains healthy there is no reason to think that Serena will not continue her domination of women's tennis for at least the next year or two, which should allow her to reach (and possibly even surpass) the 18 majors that Evert and Navratilova share. Graf's total of 22 should be safe. Probably.

WTA TOUR FINALS: Serena v Sharapova in final

Serena Williams continued her deadly efficient demolition of the elite draw at the WTA Tour Championships, this time defeating World #3 Agnieska Radwanska 6-2 6-1 to reach the final, where she will face World #2 Maria Sharapova in a reprise of the 2012 London Olympics gold medal match. The two semifinals were, respectively, repeat showdowns of the 2012 Wimbledon final and the 2012 Australian Open final. The Wimbledon result was repeated with Serena winning over Aga while in the other Sharapova was able to reverse the result with her first hard court win against World #1 Victoria Azarenka since 2009(!) by the fairly easy score of 6-4 6-2. Azarenka had serving troubles throughout the match (as well as during her loss to Serena earlier in the week) and in the latter stages was hampered in her usually superior movement with what looked like a thigh or hamstring injury.

Serena is 9-0 against Top 5 players in 2012 and has only lost two matches since late March (and a mere four matches all year long despite playing a complete season for the first time since 2009).

Serena will face Sharapova, who played excellent tennis to finally stop her hard-court losing streak to Azarenka. The problem for Sharapova is that the last time she played Serena she barely won a game, and the fact is that she has not beaten Serena since the finals of the 2004 WTA Championships in Los Angeles (which I attended). She doesn't only lose to Serena, she loses badly. The recent matches have not even been very close (although the earlier meetings used to be). One really can't call theirs a rivalry because Sharapova has won so few of their matches over the years. This fact should free up Sharapova to go for broke because she literally has nothing to lose. No one expects her to win this match so she should hit the ball even harder than usual.

As for Serena, her problem may be over confidence. She is now 11-1 against World #1 Azarenka and 9-2 against World #2 Sharapova and in 2012 has won 7 consecutive matches against her putative rivals for the throne at the top of women's tennis. With a win on Sunday she will end the year with 58 wins and only 4 losses on the year.

That being said, Sharapova can be dangerous. However Serena looks like a woman on a mission and is determined to reach World #1 again. Serena has won a tour-leading 6 titles in 2012 (tied with Azarenka) and if she wins in Istanbul it will be her 7th title of the year in as many finals and her 3rd time winning the year-end championships (2001 walk over Lindsay Davenport and 2009 d. Venus Williams).

In fact, I would not be surprised if we start talking about a Serena slam sometime in 2013, especially if Serena wins the Australian Open, which is rather likely. She has a mere 3 more majors before she reaches the gaudy totals of the all-time greats Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert, which at the age of 31 is something she could very well reach in the not too distant future!

BEIJING 2012: Djokovic and Azarenka Win Titles

AP/Andy Wong

AP/Andy Wong

As I predicted yesterday, Victoria Azarenka defeated Maria Sharapova for the 6th time in 2012 to win the China Open in Beijing. The score was 6-3 6-1, which was far easier than the 3-set thriller World's top 2 players served up in the semifinals of the 2012 US Open that was also won by Azarenka. It was the World #1's 13th career title (5th of the year) and she now has a 13-11 career final record.

However, in the men's final at the same event, Novak Djokovic defied my prediction and was able to defeat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 7-6(4) 6-2 to win his 3rd consecutive China Open title, and 32nd title of his career (and 4th of the year). Djokovic now has a 32-19 career final record.

Curious that both 2012 Australian Open winners won titles in Beijing.